Best Actor
It's been a weak year for Best Actor, with only 6 major contenders (Affleck, Washington, Gosling, Garfield, Mortensen, and Edgerton) vying for the 5 slots. I leave open the small possibility of a dark horse upset, although this feels unlikely.
The Actual Contenders
It's been a weak year for Best Actor, with only 6 major contenders (Affleck, Washington, Gosling, Garfield, Mortensen, and Edgerton) vying for the 5 slots. I leave open the small possibility of a dark horse upset, although this feels unlikely.
The Actual Contenders
1. Casey Affleck- Manchester By The Sea
Affleck has received rave reviews for Manchester by The Sea and the film has received acclaim since its premiere at Sundance that doesn't seem to be dropping. He's a safe bet for a nomination and at this point seems like a potential winner.
2. Denzel Washington- Fences
Denzel Washington reprises his Tony-winning role in the film adaptation of Fences. The simple fact that he won a Tony for playing this character on broadway makes it obvious that he's a serious contender.
3. Ryan Gosling- La La Land
Ryan Gosling could receive his first nomination since Half Nelson 10 years ago. La La Land has received praise as one of the best films of the year with Gosling's performance cited as one of the highlights.
4. Andrew Garfield- Hacksaw Ridge
(Formerly Ranked #6)
(Formerly Ranked #6)
The Andrew Garfield film people have seen and praised. The only concern is if his Hacksaw Ridge and Silence performances cancel each other out (an actor can only be nominated once in a category).
5. Viggo Mortensen- Captain Fantastic
(formerly ranked #7)
(formerly ranked #7)
Captain Fantastic has been called one of the best indies of the year with Mortensen at the center of the praise. However, it's still a very small indie, so it'll need a good amount of buzz to score him a nomination.
6. Joel Edgerton- Loving
(formerly ranked #4)
(formerly ranked #4)
Edgerton stars as Richard Loving, one-half of the interracial couple that challenged states miscegenation laws. While his performance has been praised, it's also been called quiet and subtle. Whether or not it'll be too subtle for the Academy remains to be seen.
Update: In spite of a Golden Globe nomination, Loving has otherwise underperformed. However, this is an unusually weak year for Best Actor so he may be able to squeeze in still.
Update: In spite of a Golden Globe nomination, Loving has otherwise underperformed. However, this is an unusually weak year for Best Actor so he may be able to squeeze in still.
Dark Horses
7. Andrew Garfield- Silence
(formerly ranked #5)
(formerly ranked #5)
This is a gambit call since Silence still hasn't been screened to the vast majority of people and there's no real word on his performance yet. Regardless, his leading presence in a Martin Scorcese film makes me suspect he'll bring a lot.
Update: Silence has been snubbed left and right by Awards Shows with all of Garfield's acclaim going towards Hacksaw Ridge.
Update: Silence has been snubbed left and right by Awards Shows with all of Garfield's acclaim going towards Hacksaw Ridge.
8. Tom Hanks- Sully
(formerly ranked #7)
Hanks received some of his biggest praise since Captain Phillips (where he was snubbed at the Oscars). Along with having Clint Eastwood as the director, who is adored by the Academy, I may be underestimating Hanks by putting him at #7.
(formerly ranked #7)
Hanks received some of his biggest praise since Captain Phillips (where he was snubbed at the Oscars). Along with having Clint Eastwood as the director, who is adored by the Academy, I may be underestimating Hanks by putting him at #7.
Update: Sully has been almost completely ignored this awards season in contrast to Eastwood's last film, American Sniper, which got several guild awards before Cooper scored a nomination. Still, the Academy loves Clint Eastwood so I won't count it out.
9. Jake Gyllenhaal- Nocturnal Animals
Gyllenhaal scores another raved performance in Nocturnal Animals and like Nightcrawler and Prisoners before, it's become clear that the Academy has no interest in nominating Gyllenhaal for his performances in dark thrillers. Maybe this could be the exception, but probably not.
Update: Gyllenhaal received a BAFTA nomination, but BAFTAs are known for having at least one unusual nomination, so it probably means nothing.
Update: Gyllenhaal received a BAFTA nomination, but BAFTAs are known for having at least one unusual nomination, so it probably means nothing.
Best Actress
Best Actress feels far more competitive than Best Actor with 4 probable locks and another 4 battling for that 5th slot, with one possible dark horse who could sneak in.
Best Actress feels far more competitive than Best Actor with 4 probable locks and another 4 battling for that 5th slot, with one possible dark horse who could sneak in.
1. Emma Stone- La La Land
(formerly #3)
(formerly #3)
Stone winning isn't an impossibility for a win either with the amount of hype La La Land has built up.
Update: With Portman losing the Globe and La La Land sweeping, Stone's odds are increasing. We'll see how SAG goes.
Update: With Portman losing the Globe and La La Land sweeping, Stone's odds are increasing. We'll see how SAG goes.
2. Natalie Portman- Jackie
There are many reasons Natalie Portman may not win. She won just 6 years ago, the actresses listed below are still building hype etc. but for the time being, she's at #1. It's a raved performance. It's a biopic. It's a safe bet for a nomination.
Update: Still a lock for a nomination, but her surprise loss at the golden globes and lack of enthusiasm for the film in general may put her at a disadvantage.
3. Meryl Streep- Florence Foster Jenkins
(Formerly #5)
(Formerly #5)
Meryl Streep feels like less of a lock than usual, but she's still Meryl Streep.
4. Amy Adams- Arrival
(Formerly #6)
(Formerly #6)
Adams has already been nominated 5 times, which shows how much she's loved by the Academy, but could also make the Academy want to nominate people who haven't had the same amount of recognition. Hard to say, but Arrival's praise has largely centered around her performance.
Update: The last "lock" on the list. Adams feels less safe by nature of being in a sci-fi film, but the acclaim for Arrival, including a DGA nomination for Villenueve has made it clear that awards groups are really taking to the film.
Update: The last "lock" on the list. Adams feels less safe by nature of being in a sci-fi film, but the acclaim for Arrival, including a DGA nomination for Villenueve has made it clear that awards groups are really taking to the film.
5. Isabelle Huppert- Elle
(Formerly #8)
(Formerly #8)
Elle is apparently an incredibly dark film. It's also not American. However, foreign-language performances have been nominated before and even won (see Marion Cotillard) and her performance is already receiving recognition from American award shows like the Spirit Awards and Satellite Awards.
Update: She surprised everyone when she won the Golden Globe for Best Actress-Drama, beating out frontrunner Portman, in spite of not being nominated at SAG. The nature of her film and competitive nature of the category still makes me question her chances, but nobody has ever won Best Actress-Drama at the Golden Globes and not been nominated at the Oscars. First time for everything, though.
Update: She surprised everyone when she won the Golden Globe for Best Actress-Drama, beating out frontrunner Portman, in spite of not being nominated at SAG. The nature of her film and competitive nature of the category still makes me question her chances, but nobody has ever won Best Actress-Drama at the Golden Globes and not been nominated at the Oscars. First time for everything, though.
6. Emily Blunt- The Girl on the Train
(Formerly #11)
(Formerly #11)
The Girl on the Train received mixed reviews but Emily Blunt's performance was praised and an awards campaign has already began for her.
Update: Blunt came out of nowhere. She was completely ignored by various awards groups and then suddenly got both a SAG and BAFTA nomination. She's definitely a possibility now.
Update: Blunt came out of nowhere. She was completely ignored by various awards groups and then suddenly got both a SAG and BAFTA nomination. She's definitely a possibility now.
7. Ruth Negga- Loving
Formerly #4
Formerly #4
Negga's performance for Loving, like Edgerton, has been praised but also subtle. So not quite a lock, but still a possibility.
Update: Like Edgerton, Negga has been mostly ignored in spite of a Golden Globe nod. Surprises happen, but I'm not convinced at this time.
8. Annette Bening- 20th Century Women
(Formerly #2)
(Formerly #2)
Bening has a lot going for her. She's overdue for an Oscar with 4 nominations and zero wins, she already lost to Natalie Portman in 2010, and she has a performance that's been highly acclaimed. Only time will tell.
Update: This film came and fell quickly. She got a globe nomination, but it seems like 20th Century Women came out a bit too late.
Dark Horses
Update: This film came and fell quickly. She got a globe nomination, but it seems like 20th Century Women came out a bit too late.
Dark Horses
9. Taraji P. Henson- Hidden Figures
(Formerly #9)
(Formerly #9)
Taraji P. Henson was last nominated in 2008 for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button before becoming better known on tv for shows like Person of Interest and Empire. But if Hidden Figures ends up being a hit with audiences, it could be a chance to recognize her again.
Update: Hidden Figures has become a huge commercial and critical success. While most of the awards are going towards co-star Octavia Spencer, Henson still has a small possibility of sneaking in.
Update: Hidden Figures has become a huge commercial and critical success. While most of the awards are going towards co-star Octavia Spencer, Henson still has a small possibility of sneaking in.
Best Supporting Actor
The Actual Contenders
The Actual Contenders
1. Mahershala Ali- Moonlight
(formerly #2)
(formerly #2)
Moonlight was an indie that rose higher than I think anyone could've imagined and Mahershala Ali's subtle but powerful performance was one of the highlights. While I do fear the performance may not be flashy enough for the Academy, it's not a crowded year for supporting actor (I'd call everyone after #11 a long shot), so I'm hoping the Academy will give him the recognition he deserves.
Update: Taylor-Johnson's win at the Golden Globes was a small blow, but unless he loses SAG (where Taylor-Johnson wasn't nominated), I still think Ali is the frontrunner.
2. Jeff Bridges- Hell or High Water
(formerly #4)
(formerly #4)
This one seems a bit unfair, because I definitely consider Jeff Bridges co-lead of the film (he's even billed first), but the film seems to be pushing him as supporting and if so, he seems like a decent bet to get in as the hype for Hell or High Water remains strong after many months.
3. Hugh Grant- Florence Foster Jenkins
(formerly #10)
I don't know. Streep sometimes carries her co-stars to a nomination
Update: Seems like a borderline lock at this point. People are really taking to his performance.
3. Hugh Grant- Florence Foster Jenkins
(formerly #10)
I don't know. Streep sometimes carries her co-stars to a nomination
Update: Seems like a borderline lock at this point. People are really taking to his performance.
4. Dev Patel- Lion
(formerly #5)
Although the trailer makes him look like the lead, Patel apparently has less screentime than it looks as a large amount of the film centers on him as a child played by a younger actor. And this may for the best if Patel wants a shot at gettin a nomination.
5. Aaron Taylor-Johnson- Nocturnal Animals
Aaron Taylor-Johnson is someone whose past performances I've ranged from "solid" to "bad". Then he gave an absolutely amazing, chilling performance in Nocturnal Animals, which serves as a great reminder that an actor is often only as good as their script. I don't know if he's a contender, but he deserves to be one.
Update: Taylor-Johnson's surprise Golden Globe win and BAFTA nomination changes a lot. He's now a definite contender. It's been over 40 years since someone won the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor and not been nominated for an Oscar.
6. Lucas Hedges- Manchester by the Sea
(formerly #3)
The young Lucas Hedges seems to have given his breakout role in Manchester by the Sea, with many saying he's just as good in the film as Casey Affleck.
8. Issey Ogata- Silence
(formerly #5)
Although the trailer makes him look like the lead, Patel apparently has less screentime than it looks as a large amount of the film centers on him as a child played by a younger actor. And this may for the best if Patel wants a shot at gettin a nomination.
5. Aaron Taylor-Johnson- Nocturnal Animals
Aaron Taylor-Johnson is someone whose past performances I've ranged from "solid" to "bad". Then he gave an absolutely amazing, chilling performance in Nocturnal Animals, which serves as a great reminder that an actor is often only as good as their script. I don't know if he's a contender, but he deserves to be one.
Update: Taylor-Johnson's surprise Golden Globe win and BAFTA nomination changes a lot. He's now a definite contender. It's been over 40 years since someone won the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor and not been nominated for an Oscar.
6. Lucas Hedges- Manchester by the Sea
(formerly #3)
The young Lucas Hedges seems to have given his breakout role in Manchester by the Sea, with many saying he's just as good in the film as Casey Affleck.
Update: Hedges isn't quite the lock he once seemed, but the love for the film in general means he's still a contender.
Dark Horses
7. Liam Neeson- Silence
(formerly #6)
(formerly #6)
While it's yet to be seen by many, Liam Neeson's performance in Silence is expected to be brief but with lots of depth and I truly hope it ends up being as good as we're hoping. For that reason, this prediction may be a longshot, but if the performance lives up to expectations, I think Neeson will have a good shot.
Update: Honestly who even knows with Silence at this point?
9. Adam Driver- Silence
Like Liam Neeson, Adam Driver's performance remains to be seen, but he's Adam Driver which means he's awesome. So let's just acknowledge that now.
Like Liam Neeson, Adam Driver's performance remains to be seen, but he's Adam Driver which means he's awesome. So let's just acknowledge that now.
10. Ben Foster- Hell or High Water
Ben Foster is one of the most underrated actors alive from Alpha Dog to 3:10 to Yuma to The Messenger to Six Feet Under. He's given so many wonderful performances from the year and Hell or High Water is no exception. Yet with Jeff Bridges going supporting, he's almost certainly going to be ignored by the Academy. But he did get a Spirit award nomination so that's better than nothing.
Update: He's not getting in, but damn he should.
Update: He's not getting in, but damn he should.
Best Supporting Actress
This category seems the most obvious, with the same 5 actress nominated at SAG and the Golden Globes. Similar thing happened with Best Supporting Actor in 2014 and those 5 actors all ended up as the Oscar nominations.
The Actual Contenders
This category seems the most obvious, with the same 5 actress nominated at SAG and the Golden Globes. Similar thing happened with Best Supporting Actor in 2014 and those 5 actors all ended up as the Oscar nominations.
The Actual Contenders
Viola Davis reprises her Tony-winning role in Fences. She already lost for The Help, which some saw as a snub, and with the amount of hype, she definitely feels like a potential winner.
2. Michelle Williams- Manchester by the Sea
Williams has already been nominated 3 times and has already been building an "overdue" narrative before turning 40. Her performance in Manchester by the Sea has been called one of best of her career so she should be a safe bet.
Williams has already been nominated 3 times and has already been building an "overdue" narrative before turning 40. Her performance in Manchester by the Sea has been called one of best of her career so she should be a safe bet.
3. Naomie Harris- Moonlight
Harris is fantastic in Moonlight, turning what could've been a stereotypical character into somebody rather complex. And Moonlight's hype still hasn't died down so she'll hopefully be a safe bet for a nomination.
Harris is fantastic in Moonlight, turning what could've been a stereotypical character into somebody rather complex. And Moonlight's hype still hasn't died down so she'll hopefully be a safe bet for a nomination.
4. Nicole Kidman- Lion
A less safe bet than the previous 3, but Kidman's positive reception for her role as Dev Patel's adopted mother in Moonlight and general respect by the Academy should push her forward.
5. Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures
(formerly #7)
Spencer unexpectedly become one of the biggest names following her acclaim and subsequent Oscar win for her role in The Help. Hidden Figures may be a chance to score her a second nomination if it lives up to its hype.
Dark Horses
6. Janelle Monáe- Hidden Figures
(formerly #8)
Monáe wasn't one I was thinking about too extensively but she ended up scoring a Critic's Choice nomination over Spencer, so she's clearly a contender at this point.
A less safe bet than the previous 3, but Kidman's positive reception for her role as Dev Patel's adopted mother in Moonlight and general respect by the Academy should push her forward.
5. Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures
(formerly #7)
Spencer unexpectedly become one of the biggest names following her acclaim and subsequent Oscar win for her role in The Help. Hidden Figures may be a chance to score her a second nomination if it lives up to its hype.
Dark Horses
6. Janelle Monáe- Hidden Figures
(formerly #8)
Monáe wasn't one I was thinking about too extensively but she ended up scoring a Critic's Choice nomination over Spencer, so she's clearly a contender at this point.
7. Greta Gerwig- 20th Century Women
(formerly #5)
She's on the bubble as 20th Century Women doesn't seem to have a lot of hype building currently, but Gerwig has the benefit of a not especially crowded category and the film's critical acclaim.
Update: 20th Century Women's hype has seemingly come and gone.
7. Fences
7. Denzel Washington- Fences
(formerly #5)
She's on the bubble as 20th Century Women doesn't seem to have a lot of hype building currently, but Gerwig has the benefit of a not especially crowded category and the film's critical acclaim.
Update: 20th Century Women's hype has seemingly come and gone.
Best Picture
La La Land just won 7 Golden Globes and is clearly the frontrunner, but Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea are still possibilities. Everyone else should be happy just to be nominated. Putting Deadpool on here is weird, but with the WGA and PGA nominations, yes it is a contender.
La La Land just won 7 Golden Globes and is clearly the frontrunner, but Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea are still possibilities. Everyone else should be happy just to be nominated. Putting Deadpool on here is weird, but with the WGA and PGA nominations, yes it is a contender.
1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Arrival
5. Lion
6. Hell or High Water
8. Hidden Figures
9. Hacksaw Ridge
10. Silence
10. Silence
11. Nocturnal Animals
12. Deadpool
12. Deadpool
Best Director
Best Director is hard to predict because there's almost always at least one surprise nominee. Last year it was Lenny Abrahamson. The year before it was Bennett Miller. 2013 didn't really have any surprises, but 2012 had Benh Zeitlin and Michael Haneke while 2011 had Terrence Malick. Will there be one this year? I don't know. Right now I'm going with Martin Scorcese as the surprise nomination, but I could be wrong. Tom Ford is a definite contender as well and the 5th slot could end up going to someone completely unexpected.
Best Director is hard to predict because there's almost always at least one surprise nominee. Last year it was Lenny Abrahamson. The year before it was Bennett Miller. 2013 didn't really have any surprises, but 2012 had Benh Zeitlin and Michael Haneke while 2011 had Terrence Malick. Will there be one this year? I don't know. Right now I'm going with Martin Scorcese as the surprise nomination, but I could be wrong. Tom Ford is a definite contender as well and the 5th slot could end up going to someone completely unexpected.
1. Damien Chazelle- La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins- Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve- Arrival
5. Martin Scorcese- Silence
6. Tom Ford- Nocturnal Animals
8. Pablo Lorrain- Jackie
9. David Mackenzie- Hell or High Water
10. Mel Gibson- Hacksaw Ridge
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