Best Actor
1. Casey Affleck- Manchester By The Sea
Affleck has received rave reviews for Manchester by The Sea and the film has received acclaim since its premiere at Sundance that doesn't seem to be dropping. He's a safe bet for a nomination and at this point seems like a potential winner.
2. Denzel Washington- Fences
Denzel Washington reprises his Tony-winning role in the film adaptation of Fences. The simple fact that he won a Tony for playing this character on broadway makes it obvious that he's a serious contender.
3. Ryan Gosling- La La Land
Ryan Gosling could receive his first nomination since Half Nelson 10 years ago. La La Land has received praise as one of the best films of the year with Gosling's performance cited as one of the highlights.
4. Andrew Garfield- Hacksaw Ridge
(Formerly Ranked #6)
(Formerly Ranked #6)
The Andrew Garfield film people have seen and praised. The only concern is if his Hacksaw Ridge and Silence performances cancel each other out (an actor can only be nominated once in a category).
5. Joel Edgerton- Loving
(formerly ranked #4)
(formerly ranked #4)
Edgerton stars as Richard Loving, one-half of the interracial couple that challenged states miscegenation laws. While his performance has been praised, it's also been called quiet and subtle. Whether or not it'll be too subtle for the Academy remains to be seen.
6. Viggo Mortensen- Captain Fantastic
(formerly ranked #7)
(formerly ranked #7)
Captain Fantastic has been called one of the best indies of the year with Mortensen at the center of the praise. However, it's still a very small indie, so it'll need a good amount of buzz to score him a nomination.
7. Andrew Garfield- Silence
(formerly ranked #5)
(formerly ranked #5)
This is a gambit call since Silence still hasn't been screened to the vast majority of people and there's no real word on his performance yet. Regardless, his leading presence in a Martin Scorcese film makes me suspect he'll bring a lot.
8. Tom Hanks- Sully
(formerly ranked #7)
Hanks received some of his biggest praise since Captain Phillips (where he was snubbed at the Oscars). Along with having Clint Eastwood as the director, who is adored by the Academy, I may be underestimating Hanks by putting him at #7.
(formerly ranked #7)
Hanks received some of his biggest praise since Captain Phillips (where he was snubbed at the Oscars). Along with having Clint Eastwood as the director, who is adored by the Academy, I may be underestimating Hanks by putting him at #7.
9. Jake Gyllenhaal- Nocturnal Animals
Gyllenhaal scores another raved performance in Nocturnal Animals and like Nightcrawler and Prisoners before, it's become clear that the Academy has no interest in nominating Gyllenhaal for his performances in dark thrillers. Maybe this could be the exception, but probably not.
10. Joseph Gordon-Levitt- Snowden
Joseph Gordon-Levitt received solid reviews for his performance as Edward Snowden, but with the film's failure at the box office, it's going to need a strong campaign to get him nominated. The Satellite Award nomination is a start though.
11. Michael Keaton- The Founder
Joseph Gordon-Levitt received solid reviews for his performance as Edward Snowden, but with the film's failure at the box office, it's going to need a strong campaign to get him nominated. The Satellite Award nomination is a start though.
If you had any doubt that Michael Keaton wants an Oscar, look no further.
12. Adam Driver- Paterson
Adam Driver has received critical acclaim for his performance in Paterson. However, it's a Jim Jarmusch film (none of his films have ever received an Oscar nomination) and is still a small indie at this point.
Adam Driver has received critical acclaim for his performance in Paterson. However, it's a Jim Jarmusch film (none of his films have ever received an Oscar nomination) and is still a small indie at this point.
13. Chris Pine- Hell or High Water
Chris Pine gives his best performance to date in Hell or High Water, but the buzz seems more focused on co-star Jeff Bridges (and to a lesser extent, Ben Foster).
14. Ben Affleck- Live By Night
Ben Affleck has yet to score an acting nomination, but we're all eager for the day that changes. If Live By Night ends up a big hit, maybe this'll be the year. But until it's seen, I can't call it a safe bet for anything.
15. Nate Parker- The Birth of a Nation
Parker would've been more likely before his rape allegation completely ruined his chances. Coupling that with the film's box office failure and the reviews that were less acclaimed than some were hoping for, it's pretty unlikely at this point.
16. Joe Alwyn- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Some wondered if unknown actor Joe Alwyn could pull off an Oscar nomination for his performance in Ang Lee's latest film, but the mixed reviews (incredibly rare for an Ang Lee film) have greatly depleted any chance he may have had.
17. Will Smith- Collateral Beauty
Will Smith is clearly hoping for some awards love with Collateral Beauty but with no word yet on whether the film is actually good and not too much hype, it's too early to say.
Will Smith is clearly hoping for some awards love with Collateral Beauty but with no word yet on whether the film is actually good and not too much hype, it's too early to say.
18. Mark Wahlberg- Patriots Day/Deepwater Horizon
Mark Wahlberg stars in two Peter Berg true story dramas this year about loving fathers and husbands who go to work a sometimes dangerous job on a seemingly ordinary day when something horrible ends up happening, resulting in loss of human life. But Deepwater Horizon came and went, in spite of positive reviews, and reviews for Patriots Day say Mark Wahlberg is just one part of an ensemble in Patriots Day.
19. Miles Teller- Bleed for This
If you had any doubt that Miles Teller really wanted an Oscar nomination, look no further. Spoiler Alert: It's not happening this year.
Best Actress
1. Natalie Portman- Jackie
There are many reasons Natalie Portman may not win. She won just 6 years ago, the actresses listed below are still building hype etc. but for the time being, she's at #1. It's a raved performance. It's a biopic. It's a safe bet for a nomination.
2. Emma Stone- La La Land
(formerly #3)
(formerly #3)
Stone winning isn't an impossibility for a win either with the amount of hype La La Land has built up.
3. Meryl Streep- Florence Foster Jenkins
(Formerly #5)
(Formerly #5)
Meryl Streep feels like less of a lock than usual, but she's still Meryl Streep.
4. Amy Adams- Arrival
(Formerly #6)
(Formerly #6)
Adams has already been nominated 5 times, which shows how much she's loved by the Academy, but could also make the Academy want to nominate people who haven't had the same amount of recognition. Hard to say, but Arrival's praise has largely centered around her performance.
5. Ruth Negga- Loving
Formerly #4
Formerly #4
Negga's performance for Loving, like Edgerton, has been praised but also subtle. So not quite a lock, but still a possibility.
6. Annette Bening- 20th Century Women
(Formerly #2)
(Formerly #2)
Bening has a lot going for her. She's overdue for an Oscar with 4 nominations and zero wins, she already lost to Natalie Portman in 2010, and she has a performance that's been highly acclaimed. Only time will tell.
7. Isabelle Huppert- Elle
(Formerly #8)
(Formerly #8)
Elle is apparently an incredibly dark film. It's also not American. However, foreign-language performances have been nominated before and even won (see Marion Cotillard) and her performance is already receiving recognition from American award shows like the Spirit Awards and Satellite Awards.
8. Emily Blunt- The Girl on the Train
(Formerly #11)
(Formerly #11)
The Girl on the Train received mixed reviews but Emily Blunt's performance was praised and an awards campaign has already began for her.
9. Amy Adams- Nocturnal Animals
(Formerly #7)
(Formerly #7)
Like Andrew Garfield, Adams has two performances that could potentially cancel each other out, but her work in Nocturnal Animals has been highly praised as well, so it'll depend on how the rest of the race plays out.
10. Taraji P. Henson- Hidden Figures
(Formerly #9)
(Formerly #9)
Taraji P. Henson was last nominated in 2008 for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button before becoming better known on tv for shows like Person of Interest and Empire. But if Hidden Figures ends up being a hit with audiences, it could be a chance to recognize her again.
11. Jessica Chastain- Miss Sloane
(formerly #10)
(formerly #10)
Jessica Chastain's performance has become a MILD hit with critics, so it remains to see how the award shows will take to it.
12. Hailee Steinfeld- Edge of Seventeen
A small indie film starring Hailee Steinfeld, last nominated for True Grit in 2010, may be too small for the Academy, but the critical praise is better than nothing.
13. Rebecca Hall- Christine
Rebecca Hall has received huge acclaim for her performance as Christine Chubbuck, but she wasn't even nominated at the Spirit Awards which makes her chances of an Oscar nomination doubtful.
14. Golshifteh Farahani- Paterson
Iranian actress Golshifteh Farahani has also received acclaim for her performance as Adam Driver's wife in Paterson. However, unless the film starts building up a lot of hype, she's unlikely to be recognized for it.
Iranian actress Golshifteh Farahani has also received acclaim for her performance as Adam Driver's wife in Paterson. However, unless the film starts building up a lot of hype, she's unlikely to be recognized for it.
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali- Moonlight
(formerly #2)
(formerly #2)
Moonlight was an indie that rose higher than I think anyone could've imagined and Mahershala Ali's subtle but powerful performance was one of the highlights. While I do fear the performance may not be flashy enough for the Academy, it's not a crowded year for supporting actor (I'd call everyone after #11 a long shot), so I'm hoping the Academy will give him the recognition he deserves.
2. Jeff Bridges- Hell or High Water
(formerly #4)
(formerly #4)
This one seems a bit unfair, because I definitely consider Jeff Bridges co-lead of the film (he's even billed first), but the film seems to be pushing him as supporting and if so, he seems like a decent bet to get in as the hype for Hell or High Water remains strong after many months.
3. Lucas Hedges- Manchester by the Sea
(formerly #3)
The young Lucas Hedges seems to have given his breakout role in Manchester by the Sea, with many saying he's just as good in the film as Casey Affleck.
3. Lucas Hedges- Manchester by the Sea
(formerly #3)
The young Lucas Hedges seems to have given his breakout role in Manchester by the Sea, with many saying he's just as good in the film as Casey Affleck.
4. Dev Patel- Lion
(formerly #5)
Although the trailer makes him look like the lead, Patel apparently has less screentime than it looks as a large amount of the film centers on him as a child played by a younger actor. And this may for the best if Patel wants a shot at gettin a nomination.
5. Hugh Grant- Florence Foster Jenkins
(formerly #10)
I don't know. Streep sometimes carries her co-stars to a nomination
7. Issey Ogata- Silence
(formerly #5)
Although the trailer makes him look like the lead, Patel apparently has less screentime than it looks as a large amount of the film centers on him as a child played by a younger actor. And this may for the best if Patel wants a shot at gettin a nomination.
5. Hugh Grant- Florence Foster Jenkins
(formerly #10)
I don't know. Streep sometimes carries her co-stars to a nomination
6. Liam Neeson- Silence
(formerly #1)
(formerly #1)
While it's yet to be seen by many, Liam Neeson's performance in Silence is expected to be brief but with lots of depth and I truly hope it ends up being as good as we're hoping. For that reason, this prediction may be a longshot, but if the performance lives up to expectations, I think Neeson will have a good shot.
8. Adam Driver- Silence
Like Liam Neeson, Adam Driver's performance remains to be seen, but he's Adam Driver which means he's awesome. So let's just acknowledge that now.
Like Liam Neeson, Adam Driver's performance remains to be seen, but he's Adam Driver which means he's awesome. So let's just acknowledge that now.
9. Peter Sarsgaard- Jackie
Sarsgaard is incredibly underrated and far overdue for an Oscar nomination. I don't know if Jackie will be the film to do that, with the amount of hype centered on Natalie Portman's performance, but in an uncrowded year, he may be able to carry himself to a nomination.
Sarsgaard is incredibly underrated and far overdue for an Oscar nomination. I don't know if Jackie will be the film to do that, with the amount of hype centered on Natalie Portman's performance, but in an uncrowded year, he may be able to carry himself to a nomination.
10. Michael Shannon- Nocturnal Animals
Michael Shannon received an Oscar nomination for his scene-stealing performance in Revolutionary Road and he's been long overdue for a second nomination after fantastic performances in films like Take Shelter and 99 Homes. Could it come for Nocturnal Animals? Maybe.
Michael Shannon received an Oscar nomination for his scene-stealing performance in Revolutionary Road and he's been long overdue for a second nomination after fantastic performances in films like Take Shelter and 99 Homes. Could it come for Nocturnal Animals? Maybe.
11. Aaron Taylor-Johnson- Nocturnal Animals
Aaron Taylor-Johnson is someone whose past performances I've ranged from "solid" to "bad". Then he gave an absolutely amazing, chilling performance in Nocturnal Animals, which serves as a great reminder that an actor is often only as good as their script. I don't know if he's a contender, but he deserves to be one.
.
Aaron Taylor-Johnson is someone whose past performances I've ranged from "solid" to "bad". Then he gave an absolutely amazing, chilling performance in Nocturnal Animals, which serves as a great reminder that an actor is often only as good as their script. I don't know if he's a contender, but he deserves to be one.
.
12. Ben Foster- Hell or High Water
Ben Foster is one of the most underrated actors alive from Alpha Dog to 3:10 to Yuma to The Messenger to Six Feet Under. He's given so many wonderful performances from the year and Hell or High Water is no exception. Yet with Jeff Bridges going supporting, he's almost certainly going to be ignored by the Academy. But he did get a Spirit award nomination so that's better than nothing.
13. Ashton Sanders- Moonlight
My favorite of the three actors portraying Chiron in Moonlight, but without a clear consensus of who was the best actor, it's unliekly any of them will be nominated.
My favorite of the three actors portraying Chiron in Moonlight, but without a clear consensus of who was the best actor, it's unliekly any of them will be nominated.
14. Trevante Rhodes- Moonlight
Also excellent as Chiron in Moonlight, but see above.
Also excellent as Chiron in Moonlight, but see above.
15. Ralph Fiennes- A Bigger Splash
16. Kyle Chandler- Manchester by the Sea
I'm not entirely sure how much screentime Kyle Chandler actually has in the film, but he's proven himself capable of making an impression even in small roles (i.e. The Wolf of Wall Street).
17. Aaron Eckhart- Sully
Eckhart brings some decent rapport with Tom Hanks in Scully and Hanks has a history of getting his co-stars Oscar nominations (Paul Newman, Barkhad Abdi, Mark Rylance, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Michael Clarke Duncan). I don't really think Eckhart brings enough to the role to warrant a nomination, but the Academy loves awarding Clint Eastwood films when they can.
Eckhart brings some decent rapport with Tom Hanks in Scully and Hanks has a history of getting his co-stars Oscar nominations (Paul Newman, Barkhad Abdi, Mark Rylance, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Michael Clarke Duncan). I don't really think Eckhart brings enough to the role to warrant a nomination, but the Academy loves awarding Clint Eastwood films when they can.
18. Patrick Stewart- Green Room
Won't get nominated, but Patrick Stewart's terrifying against-type performance as a vicious neo-nazi leader deserves more recognition.
Won't get nominated, but Patrick Stewart's terrifying against-type performance as a vicious neo-nazi leader deserves more recognition.
19. John Goodman- 10 Cloverfield Lane
Also won't be nominated, but John Goodman gives one of his best performances to date in 10 Cloverfield Lane.
Also won't be nominated, but John Goodman gives one of his best performances to date in 10 Cloverfield Lane.
Japanese Actors- Silence
Silence has a lot of Japanese actors in potentially meaty roles, but at this point not enough is known about them and I feel the Academy would probably prefer Neeson or Driver anyways.
Silence has a lot of Japanese actors in potentially meaty roles, but at this point not enough is known about them and I feel the Academy would probably prefer Neeson or Driver anyways.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis reprises her Tony-winning role in Fences. She already lost for The Help, which some saw as a snub, and with the amount of hype, she definitely feels like a potential winner.
2. Michelle Williams- Manchester by the Sea
Williams has already been nominated 3 times and has already been building an "overdue" narrative before turning 40. Her performance in Manchester by the Sea has been called one of best of her career so she should be a safe bet.
Williams has already been nominated 3 times and has already been building an "overdue" narrative before turning 40. Her performance in Manchester by the Sea has been called one of best of her career so she should be a safe bet.
3. Naomie Harris- Moonlight
Harris is fantastic in Moonlight, turning what could've been a stereotypical character into somebody rather complex. And Moonlight's hype still hasn't died down so she'll hopefully be a safe bet for a nomination.
Harris is fantastic in Moonlight, turning what could've been a stereotypical character into somebody rather complex. And Moonlight's hype still hasn't died down so she'll hopefully be a safe bet for a nomination.
4. Nicole Kidman- Lion
A less safe bet than the previous 3, but Kidman's positive reception for her role as Dev Patel's adopted mother in Moonlight and general respect by the Academy should push her forward.
5. Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures
(formerly #7)
Spencer unexpectedly become one of the biggest names following her acclaim and subsequent Oscar win for her role in The Help. Hidden Figures may be a chance to score her a second nomination if it lives up to its hype.
6. Janelle Monáe- Hidden Figures
(formerly #8)
Monáe wasn't one I was thinking about too extensively but she ended up scoring a Critic's Choice nomination over Spencer, so she's clearly a contender at this point.
A less safe bet than the previous 3, but Kidman's positive reception for her role as Dev Patel's adopted mother in Moonlight and general respect by the Academy should push her forward.
5. Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures
(formerly #7)
Spencer unexpectedly become one of the biggest names following her acclaim and subsequent Oscar win for her role in The Help. Hidden Figures may be a chance to score her a second nomination if it lives up to its hype.
6. Janelle Monáe- Hidden Figures
(formerly #8)
Monáe wasn't one I was thinking about too extensively but she ended up scoring a Critic's Choice nomination over Spencer, so she's clearly a contender at this point.
7. Greta Gerwig- 20th Century Women
(formerly #5)
She's on the bubble as 20th Century Women doesn't seem to have a lot of hype building currently, but Gerwig has the benefit of a not especially crowded category and the film's critical acclaim.
(formerly #5)
She's on the bubble as 20th Century Women doesn't seem to have a lot of hype building currently, but Gerwig has the benefit of a not especially crowded category and the film's critical acclaim.
8. Helen Mirren- Eye in the Sky
(formerly #6)
A film that came out awhile ago, but is still being discussed. Eye in the Sky could easily miss out entirely but let's wait and see.
(formerly #6)
A film that came out awhile ago, but is still being discussed. Eye in the Sky could easily miss out entirely but let's wait and see.
9. Kristen Stewart- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Stewart is incredibly underrated and too frequently remembered just for Twilight. Unfortunately, Billy Lynn's mixed reception means she might still not be getting the recognition I'm hoping for.
10. Lupita N'yongo- Queen of Katwe
Lupita N'yongo received an Oscar for her work in 12 Years a Slave and I'm excited to see her in another drama. However, in spite of much acclaim for her performance, the film's box office failure makes it doubtful.
Best Picture
The jury is still out on Best Picture, but I'll give La La Land the benefit of the doubt until Silence comes out.
The jury is still out on Best Picture, but I'll give La La Land the benefit of the doubt until Silence comes out.
1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Moonlight
5. Loving
6. Arrival
7. Fences
8. 20th Century Women
9. Hell or High Water
10. Sully
11. Jackie
12. The Jungle Book
13. Lion
14. Hidden Figures
15. Hacksaw Ridge
16. Nocturnal Animals
17. Captain Fantastic
18. Patriot's Day
Best Director
1. Damien Chazelle- La La Land
2. Martin Scorcese- Silence
3. Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the Sea
4. Barry Jenkins- Moonlight
5. Jeff Nichols- Loving
6. Denis Villeneuve- Arrival
7. Denzel Washington- Fences
8. Pablo Lorrain- Jackie
9. Jon Favreau- The Jungle Book
10. Mike Mills- 20th Century Women
11. David Mackenzie- Hell or High Water
12. Clint Eastwood- Sully
13. Tom Ford- Nocturnal Animals
14. Mel Gibson- Hacksaw Ridge
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