Monday, July 8, 2013

2013 Emmy predictions and my picks

Oh the Emmys. also known as the Oscars of television and the award show that snubbed The Wire year after year because they were idiots, I guess. Well the Emmys are coming back. The nominations will be announced on July 18th. Like any award show, some nominations will be deserved, some nominations will be absolute bullshit, and sometimes you'll be scratching your heads as to why this person wasn't nominated.


Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
This is a very interesting category as I wouldn't consider any actor to be a lock for a nomination, let alone a win. Thus, this is probably the hardest nomination to predict, but I'll be more than interested to see how it turns out.

1. Jonathan Banks- Breaking Bad
This has been a long time coming. I think Jonathan Banks has done a phenomenal job on Breaking Bad. I can't get into details because I don't want to spoil anything, but I'd be more than happy to see him take home the award (and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened)

2. Mandy Patinkin- Homeland
These are my predictions, not my opinion. I don't think Mandy Patinkin should be nominated for Homeland, but I think he will be. His performance is certainly more...subtle than Claire Danes, but I'd hardly call it Emmy worthy. He does a good job, but there's nothing particularly unique or groundbreaking. Still, the Emmys have a boner for Homeland. It swept the Emmys last year. It'll probably do the same this year.

3. Peter Dinklage- Game of Thrones
I've only watched the first season of Game of Thrones, but I'll say right now that I understand why Mr. Dinklage won the Emmy for season 1 and if his season 3 performance is in the same caliber, he should have a chance at a nomination.

4. Nikolaj Coster-Waldau -Game of Thrones
Once again, I can't judge as I've only seen season 1 but his performance is getting a lot of hype.

5. Aaron Paul- Breaking Bad
I do love Aaron Paul on Breaking Bad and while he continues to impress, I'll be straight up and say that this wasn't his strongest year. It's no fault of Paul himself. His character just wasn't given much to do. If he wasn't nominated, it'd be understandable.

6. Noah Emmerich- The Americans
I think Noah Emmerich is the best thing about The Americans. He's been acting for a long time and has appeared in films like The Truman Show and Super 8, but this is easily the best work I've seen him in.

7. Corey Stoll- House of Cards
I haven't had time to watch House of Cards, but I have had time to hear all the praise about Corey Stoll. Stoll was previously perhaps best known for his performance as Ernest Hemingway in Midnight in Paris.


8. Michael Cudlitz- Southland
This has been an even longer time coming. Michael Cudlitz has given an Emmy worthy performance every year but this season is easily his best. He's created a character so breathtaking, so human. Everything feels so real. He should win in my opinion and the win at the Critic's choice may help his chances, but let's see if he gets nominated first.



9. John Slattery- Mad Men
John Slattery received Emmy nominations for the first 4 seasons of Mad Men before unexpectedly not being nominated for season 5 (another Mad Men star, Jared Harris, was nominated instead). I haven't seen season 6 of  Mad Men but I'm not convinced that he's the shoe in nominee that he once was.


10. Walton Goggins- Justified
Walton Goggins was originally just supposed to guest star on the first episode of Justified. Thank god that was changed. Boyd is by far one of the most interesting characters on television and Goggins should be a lock for a nomination every year if the world was fair. Sadly, the world is not fair.

11. Bobby Cannavale- Boardwalk Empire
Cannavale gave one hell of a performance as psychotic gangster Gyp Rosetti on Boardwalk Empire, but do Emmy voters still remember? I mean, this was a show that's not Homeland airing 6 months ago. I hope so, because Cannavale was terrific.

12. Mads Mikkelsen- Hannibal
Ok. I'm going to say it. Mads Mikkelsen is the best Hannibal Lecter ever. He's far more subtle than Anthony Hopkins' Oscar winning performance and does more than Brian Cox's cameo in Manhunter. And nobody cares about that guy from Hannibal Rising. But the show just started. It barely escaped cancellation. Has it built up enough momentum for a nomination?

13. Ben Feldman- Mad Men
As mentioned before, I haven't seen season 6 of Mad Men. But I have seen Ben Feldman's emmy nominated performance in season 5. If he's anything like he was in season 5, he should be a contender.

14. Freddie Highmore- Bates Motel
Freddie Highmore is the youngest actor on this list, but that's not to say his performance isn't terrific. Anthony Perkins would be proud of his performance as a young Norman Bates. Highmore makes his character both disturbing and sympathetic. Despite being the lead role, it seems likely that he'll be nominated as Supporting, just as a way to up the ante.

15. Danny Huston- Magic City
I haven't seen Magic City but Danny Huston's unexpected Golden Globe nomination can't go unnoticed. That said, the Golden Globes have never been a good predictor for the Emmys (Aaron Paul has won 2 Emmys but never been nominated at the Golden Globes) so don't count on it.

16. Vincent Kartheiser- Mad Men
He's been overlooked every season and I seriously don't understand why. Pete is such a great character but the Emmys just don't seem to care.

17. Dean Norris- Breaking Bad
Unfortunately Dean's performance isn't quite at the level of his co-stars, but I think his performance on Breaking Bad gets stronger every year.

18. David Morrisey- The Walking Dead
Morrisey's performance has received mixed reception. Some fans of the comics have objected to the more humanistic portrayal of The Governor while others have embraced it. He's still the most likely Walking Dead actor to get a nomination in this category.

19. Desmond Harrington- Dexter
It was a risk to give Joey Quinn his own individual storyline in season 7, but I think it paid off. This season, Desmond Harrington successfully turned his asshole detective into a rather sympathetic character stuck in a tough position. Easily Harrington's best season, but still highly unlikely.

20. Jim Carter- Downton Abbey
He was nominated for an Emmy just last year, but his hype has basically vanished

21. Brendan Coyle- Downton Abbey
See Jim Carter

22. Larry Hagman- Dallas
Small chance of a posthumous Emmy nomination

23. Jack Huston- Boardwalk Empire
Richard Harrow is turning into Boardwalk Empire's version of Omar Little from The Wire. Badass, likable, and likely to be snubbed from the Emmys no matter how awesome he gets.

24. Alan Cumming- The Good Wife
He's already been nominated twice, so he really should be higher on the list, but The Good Wife has seemingly gone under the radar. The ratings are lower and the hype has died down

25. Josh Charles- The Good Wife
Another actor from The Good Wife. Basically the same explanation that I gave with Alan Cumming except Charles has only been nominated once.

26. John Noble- Fringe
I've never seen Fringe, but I want to. That said, John Noble has never been nominated before and despite Fringe being a cult hit, I don't think he'll be nominated now.


27. Shawn Hatosy and Benjamin McKenzie- Southland
Two excellent actors on an excellent show. This season saw Sammy (Shawn Hatosy) trying to keep his sanity as everything in his life goes horribly wrong. Meanwhile, Ben Sherman (Benjamin McKenzie) goes down a very dark (and intriguing) path. Too bad nobody watches Southland, the best cop drama since The Wire.

28. Chi McBride- Golden Boy
Chi McBride was probably my favorite part of the short lived CBS police drama Golden Boy. But the show was cancelled after 1 13 episode season. A nomination is next to nothing but I still think he deserves a shout out.

29. Steven Yeun- The Walking Dead
Honestly, Steven Yeun doesn't get the appreciation he deserves for this show. He's easily the most relatable character. He's an ordinary guy in extraordinary circumstances. He's a young man who tries (not always successfully) to keep his sanity in a crapsack world. Oh and the zombie chair kill was super badass.

30. Michael Rooker- The Walking Dead
Forget Daryl. It's Merle who deserves the attention. What a strange character. Michael Rooker has been acting for over 20 years and now he's (finally) getting some attention. Merle is so interesting because you try so hard to understand him and his motivations. Rooker took what was initially a stereotypical redneck and made him a complex human being.

31. Ron Perlman- Sons of Anarchy
Won't be nominated but it felt wrong to not include him.

32. James Purefoy- The Following
I'll admit that I was shocked to see Purefoy's name on so many other prediction lists, but it's undeniable that his performance as a charismatic serial killer is both creepy and strangely intriguing.

My Picks (this was a tough one)
  Jonathan Banks- Breaking Bad
Nikolaj Coster-Waldau -Game of Thrones
Michael Cudlitz- Southland (Winner!)
Noah Emmerich- The Americans
Walton Goggins- Justified
Mads Mikkelsen- Hannibal



Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series


1. Maggie Smith- Downton Abbey
Maggie seems to be as just hyped up this year as any year and I wouldn't be surprised if another win was in her future.


2. Anna Gunn- Breaking Bad
Most people seem to hate her character, but Anna Gunn is one of many terrific actors on Breaking Bad. She got her first nomination last year and she definitely deserves to be nominated again.


3. Christina Hendricks- Mad Men
Another repeat nominee who's probable to get it again. And who doesn't love Christina Hendricks


4. Archie Panjabi- The Good Wife
Same as Christina Hendricks


5. Morena Baccarin- Homeland
Morena Baccarin admittedly has some pretty good scenes on this season of Homeland and the simple fact that she's on Homeland makes her a likely nominee.


6. Monica Potter- Parenthood
Parenthood has only one prior Emmy nomination, but Monica Potter's critically acclaimed performance this season could give the show nomination #2.


7. Jennifer Carpenter- Dexter
Season 7 is easily Jennifer Carpenter's best and I'd love to see her get nominated. She truly gives it her all and her performance is emotional without being over the top.


8. Jessica Pare- Mad Men
Another great Mad Men actress but she might not make it simply due to Christina Hendricks.


9. Joanne Froggatt- Downton Abbey
I haven't seen downton Abbey...but it's Downton Abbey


10. Emilia Clarke- Game of Thrones
Everyone loves Emilia Clarke


11. Gretchen Mol- Boardwalk Empire
Gretchen Mol is wonderful on Boardwalk Empire. She's creepy, manipulative, and even likable in a weird, twisted way. One of the most intriguing characters on tv right now, but nobody is even talking about her.

12. January Jones- Mad Men
January Jones was nominated for an Emmy once, back in season 3, but her character has kinda vanished. Not literally vanished, but she's not the big character that she once was.


13. Regina King- Southland
Regina King is wonderful on Southland and this season gives her even more great material to work with as Lydia's life becomes a hell of a lot more complicated. If I was a voter, I'd nominate her in an instant.

14. Kelly Macdonald- Boardwalk Empire
Kelly was nominated back in Boardwalk Empire's first season. I'm surprised she wasn't nominated for season 2. As for season 3, well she's still really good, but not as good as Gretchen Mol


15. Joelle Carter- Justified
I LOVE Justified and although I've always liked Joelle Carter, this season is definitely her best. Ava's character has developed in such a strange yet believable way and I wish Joelle Carter had more recognition.


16. Rose Byrne- Damages
Rose Byrne was nominated for the 2nd and 3rd seasons of Damages. I've only watched the first 2 seasons, but I'll say that I think she's great on it. I feel the need to include her on this list since she's been nominated before, but I don't see much hype going for the show's final season.

17. Abigail Spencer- Rectify
I haven't seen Rectify so no comment. I've just heard great things about her and the show itself.


18. Maggie Siff- Sons of Anarchy


19. Hayden Panitierre- Nashville
She got a Golden Globe nomination except Golden Globes are surprisingly not good Emmy predictors

My picks
Jennifer Carpenter- Dexter
Anna Gunn- Breaking Bad 
Christina Hendricks- Mad Men (Winner)
Regina King- Southland
Monica Potter- Parenthood 
Maggie Smith- Downton Abbey 




Outstanding Lead Actress
1. Claire Danes- Homeland
I think Claire Danes' performance on Homeland is one of the most overrated performances in the history of television. It's so over the top with Claire Danes screaming and freaking out like a blithering idiot, but people love it. Emmys, Golden Globes, and SAGs galore. I'm just one guy with one opinion. Most don't agree with me so whatever.


2. Julianna Margulies- The Good Wife
She's been nominated for the first 3 seasons (winning for season 2). I don't see any reason for season 4 to be different.

3. Michelle Dockery- Downton Abbey


4. Elisabeth Moss- Mad Men
She's been nominated every season since season 2. I don't see why this season would be different.


5. Keri Russell- The Americans
(Almost) every acting category needs a nomination for a hit new show and Keri Russell seems like that nominee. The Americans is new and acclaimed and Keri Russell is fantastic on it.


6. Vera Farmiga- Bates Motel
Vera Farmiga is who I would choose as the winner but I'll settle for a nomination.Claire Danes could take some notes about how to be visibly upset without going into an over the top extravaganza.


7. Robin Wright- House of Cards
A critically acclaimed performance that I haven't seen. I'm still upset that she didn't get an Oscar nomination for Forrest Gump. Maybe the Emmys will treat her better than the Oscars did.

8. Kerry Washington- Scandal
 It's new and very popular. I think Kerry Washington has a decent chance of a nomination and she could be the new nominee for a Shonda Rhymes show since nobody cares about Grey's Anatomy anymore.


9. Tatiana Maslaney- Orphan Black
Tatiana Maslaney plays 5000 (slight exaggeration) characters in Orphan Black and everyone who watches it says that she deserves an Emmy nomination. But the show might be a bit too ambitious and a bit too unknown to please Emmy voters.

10. Connie Britton- Nashville
Nashville is ABC's new hit and has gotten Connie Britton a Golden Globe nomination. But as already mentioned, Golden globes aren't good Emmy predictors. For example, last year Madeline Stowe for Revenge and Callie Thorne for Necessary Roughness were both nominated for Best Actress, TV drama at the golden Globes but neither got Emmy nominations. The year before, Piper Perabo got nominated for Covert Affairs and Katey Sagal WON for Sons of Anarchy.


11. Madeline Stowe- Revenge
You'll notice what I said about Golden globe nominations above. That said, she didn't get a Globe nomination this year so maybe that's a good sign. Who knows?


12. Glenn Close- Damages
It feels weird having Glenn Close at #11. She's received nominations for the first 4 seasons of Damages. Why wouldn't she get nominated for the 5th? Simply put, Damages has faded from the public eye. Glenn Close was the sole nomination for season 4. I have a feeling that season 5 won't have any nominations.


13. Katey Sagal- Sons of Anarchy
An actress who probably should have been nominated by now but never will be

14. Mireille Enos- The Killing
She received a nomination for the first season, but honestly, Enos should just be happy that AMC undid their cancellation and brought it back for a 3rd season. I don't see an Emmy nomination this year.

15. Emmy Rossum- Shameless
I love Emmy Rossum and I love Shameless. I'd nominate her in an instant but Shameless is most likely destined to be a show that's forever snubbed.


16. Mariska Hargitay- Law and Order: SVU
She's been nominated 8 times, winning once, quite unusual for a procedural. Last year marked her first time not being nominated after an 8 year streak and honestly, with so many better actresses, I don't see why she should be nominated this year.

17. Anna Paquin- True Blood

My Picks: 

Vera Farmiga- Bates Motel
Julianna Margulies- The Good Wife
Tatiana Maslaney- Orphan Black
Elisabeth Moss- Mad Men (winner)
Emmy Rossum- Shameless
Katey Sagal- Sons of Anarchy 


Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series


1. Damien Lewis- Homeland
Damien Lewis is probably the best actor on Homeland. Although he wouldn't have been my #1 choice for the Emmy, I wasn't necessarily upset to see him win. That said, should he win again? probably not. Will he win again? probably. At the very least, he's practically locked for a nomination.


2. Bryan Cranston- Breaking Bad
Cranston is a big favorite with the Emmys, winning 3 (deserved) Emmys for the first 3 seasons. His performance remains top notch so there's no reason for the Emmys to not notice him this year.


3. Jon Hamm- Mad Men
Jon Hamm, oh John Hamm. The Emmys seem so determined to not give it to Jon Hamm. Last year, Hamm become a producer for Mad Men which become the one year Mad Men didn't win Outstanding Drama Series. He's been nominated for the first 5 seasons and he's practically a lock for season 6. He's earned his due for the win, but I don't think he'll get out.


4. Kevin Spacey- House of Cards
The Emmys love it when Hollywood actors go to the small screen and when a performance is as acclaimed as Spacey's in House of Cards, it makes a nomination very likely (but not a lock).


5. Steve Buscemi- Boardwalk Empire
Buscemi received nominations for the first 2 seasons, but season 3 was probably the weakest season yet. Now that's doesn't mean it was bad. It was still a great season and I'll be tuning into season 4. I think Buscemi will make the cut, but the chances are lower.


6. Matthew Rhys- The Americans
Matthew Rhys has given a very strong, subtle performance on The Americans and I think it's gotten enough notice to get him an Emmy nomination.

7. Jeff Daniels- The Newsroom
The Newsroom's mixed reviews haven't stopped it from Jeff Daniels getting nominations at the SAG and Golden Globes. I think he's a plausible nomination and he's great on the show, but I think there are more deserving actors this year


8. Michael C. Hall- Dexter
Michael C. Hall has received nominations for seasons 2-6. He's never won an Emmy. He should have won for Dexter's phenomenal 4th season but the world is unfair. Season 7 was a hell of a lot better than season 6, but I feel like Michael C. Hall may be held back by the new competitors Matthew Rhys and Kevin Spacey.


9. Timothy Olyphant- Justified
Timothy Olyphant is a very underrated actor on a very underrated show. He was nominated in season 2, but Breaking Bad being ineligible that year probably made it a lot easier. I'll say right now that I would nominate him. I haven't seen House of Cards, but I think he deserves it more than Matthew Rhys, Damian Lewis, Jeff Daniels, Steve Buscemi, and Michael C. Hall. There's a strange appeal about his performance on Justified. I can't quite explain it.


10. Hugh Bonneville- Downton Abbey
As mentioned before, I haven't seen Downton Abbey so I can't comment on whether or not Bonneville deserves it. However, I'll say that despite being nominated last year, I think there are too many other competitors this year.

11. Hugh Dancy- Hannibal
Hugh Dancy really surprised me in Hannibal. Rather than playing a straight man detective character, he's a damaged and very disturbed human being and endlessly fascinating. Hugh Dancy probably won't be nominated this season, but I think he'll have a good shot once Mad Men and Breaking Bad end.


12. Andrew Lincoln- The Walking Dead
Season 3 was probably Andrew Lincoln's best season, even if the 4th episode of season 3 had one moment of unintentional hilarity (those who watch the show know what I'm talking about).


13. Kelsey Grammar- Boss
I haven't seen Boss, but Kelsey Grammar won a Golden Globe for season 1 and then was ignored for the Emmys. It's rare that the Emmys recognize a cancelled show, especially a show cancelled after just 2 seasons, but it's...possible.

14. Charlie Hunnam- Sons of Anarchy
He won't be nominated. Should be? perhaps, but I doubt it.


15. William H. Macy- Shameless
Frank Gallagher is probably one of the biggest asshole scumbags in the history of television and William H. Macy, best known for his timid and nerdy characters, plays him wonderfully. But the show is too under the radar to receive much award recognition.

16. Peter Krause- Parenthood
Peter Krause keeps on appearing on lists of actors who should be nominated but won't be. I haven't seen Parenthood but Krause was wonderful on Six Feet Under so I'm sure Parenthood is the same.


17. Aden Young- Rectify
Same with Krause, Young is appearing on a lot of lists of people who should be nominated but won't be. Since only like 20 people have even seen Rectify, it's unlikely that the Emmys will notice it.


18. Kevin Bacon- The Following
The Following isn't exactly a universally beloved tv show, but even the people who hate it seem to agree that Kevin Bacon's performance is one of the better aspects on the show. I think Bacon is really good on the show, but I'll admit that I was shocked to see him appearing on other people's lists as possible nominees.

My Picks:
Steve Buscemi- Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston- Breaking Bad
Jon Hamm- Mad Men (winner)  
Timothy Olyphant- Justified
Matthew Rhys- The Americans
Kevin Spacey- House of Cards



Outstanding Guest Actor
Outstanding Guest Actor and Actress are really hard to predict because there are dozens and dozens of possiblities, but I'll point out some worthy contenders in no particular order.


 All those actors on The Good Wife (Matthew Perry, Nathan Lane, Dylan Baker, Michael J. Fox)
The Good Wife has a lot of big guest actors. that's all I have to say about that.



Lennie James- The Walking Dead
I want Lennie James to win, but who knows if he'll even be nominated. Lennie James' small role outshines every other actor on the show. He's incredible on it. I even made a facebook page for him (a very unsuccessful facebook page)


Ray Stevenson-Dexter
Issak Sirko brought a lot of weird emotions in season 7 of Dexter. He was a pretty horrible human being, yet I almost felt sorry for him. Sure, Ray Stevenson didn't even try with the Ukrainian accent, but he was still a scary guy.


Jim Beaver- Justified
Shelby is so awesome on Justified. I don't even know where to start, but like Lennie James, he'd be a worthy winner.


Rupert Friend-Homeland
Peter Quinn gave a strong performance as an interesting character in season 2 of Homeland, especially as audiences tried to figure out who this guy really was. Not my #1 choice, but I can see a nomination in his future.


Gerald McRaney- Southland
McRaney will probably be ignored which is sad because he deserves some really serious Emmy consideration. A very tragic performance and McRaney does it with natural ease.

Anthony Ruvivar- Southland
Another Southland actor likely to be ignored, Hank Lucero was a great character because you loved him and pitied him. He was a good cop and a good man, but he clearly had issues. He was somewhat homophobic, but instead of portraying him as a mindless bigot, he didn't seem proud of his homophobia and wanted to move past it. The episode Chaos shows Ruvivar at his best.


Jere Burns-Bates Motel
Jere Burns is great on Justified and his character on Bates Motel is creepy as hell from the get-go. I guess he just has that face.

Robert Morse- Mad Men
Robert Morse kinda cheats. He's been in the main cast since season 3 but is still nominated as a guest actor. He's received 3 nominations for Mad Men for seasons 1, 3, and 4. I think there's a good chance he'll be nominated again this year.

Jason Ritter- Parenthood
He was nominated last year so it's possible.

Ron Eldard- Justified
Admittedly not as good as Jim Beaver, but Ron Eldard deserves a shout out.



Ray Romano- Parenthood






Jimmy Smits- Sons of Anarchy




Walton Goggins- Sons of Anarchy


My picks:
Jim Beaver- Justified
Jere Burns- Bates Motel
Lennie James- The Walking Dead (winner)
Gerald McRaney- Southland
Anthony Ruvivar- Southland
Ray Stevenson- Dexter


Outstanding Guest Actress
 If you watch Dexter than you know that she deserves it.

Margo Martindale- The Americans
I loved her on Justified and she was probably my favorite part of The Americans.


Joan Cusack- Shameless
A repeat nominee and will probably once again be the only nominee that Shameless gets


Abby Miller- Justified 
Initially a pretty minor character, season 4 gave Ellen May a much bigger story arc and it's hard not to root for her.

Shirley MacLaine- Downton Abbey




Jane Fonda- The Newsroom


Laura Fraser- Breaking Bad 




Diana Rigg- Game of Thrones

all those Good Wife guest stars


 My Picks: 
Joan Cusack- Shameless
Margo Martindale- The Americans
Shirley MacLaine- Downton Abbey
Abby Miller- Justified
Diana Rigg- Game of Thrones
Yvonne Stravhoski- Dexter

Winner: not sure 




Outstanding Drama Series

1. Homeland
 2. Mad Men
3. Breaking Bad
4. Downton Abbey
5. Game of Thrones
6. House of Cards
7. Boardwalk Empire
8. The Good Wife
9. The Americans
10. Dexter
11. The Newsroom
12. Justified
13. Scandal
14.  Revenge
15. The Walking Dead
16. Sons of Anarchy
17. Shameless
18. Damages
19. Southland
20. Hannibal
21. Orphan Black 

My Picks:
Breaking Bad (winner)
House of Cards
Justified
Game of Thrones
Mad Men
Southland