Alright, final predictions. Now let's just hope that some of these are dead wrong because these are only my predictions, not what I actually want.
Best Actor
The Locks
1. Christian Bale- Vice
Formerly #2
Christian Bale definitely ticks off some Oscar checkboxes with Vice as he's playing a real-life figure and went through a large physical transformation to portray the role. That said, as Bale already has an Oscar in his belt from less than a decade ago and Vice being far more divisive than A Star is Born, I'm still giving Cooper the edge for now.
Update: With his wins at both the Golden Globes and Critic's Choice awards, Bale has moved up as the current front runner.
2. Rami Malek- Bohemian Rhapsody
Formerly #3
Bohemian Rhapsody wasn't exactly critically acclaimed and personally I've found myself liking it less upon reflection, but most do agree that Rami Malek is pretty terrific as Freddie Mercury. Rami Malek's already been nominated at the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice Awards, and SAG awards among others and the film's massive box office success will likely help his chances.
3. Bradley Cooper- A Star is Born
Formerly #1
Bradley Cooper already has been nominated for three acting Oscars but I don't think he's ever had as good a chance of winning as he does this year. While I don't think Cooper is the unambiguous frontrunner to win at this point, I also can't think of anyone else likely to take the win at this point in Awards Season.
Update: Cooper is getting nominated everywhere but he's not winning anywhere.
The Likely Contenders
4. John David Washington- Black Klansman
John David Washington breakout performance has already garnered him several award nominations including the Golden Globes and SAG. While less of a lock than the three names in front of him, I'd argue he's got a decent shot at this point, especially with Black Klansman's Best Picture potential.
5. Viggo Mortensen- Green Book
Mortensen does solid work in a crowdpleaser movie that's already garnered him a SAG, Critic's Choice, and Golden Globe nomination. The question for me is whether or not some of Green Book's controversy over historical inaccuracies with the characters will have any affect on his Oscar chances (as well as that of his co-star Mahershala Ali)
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6. Ethan Hawke- First Reformed
Formerly #10
Okay, won't lie, if there's one actor I really want to be nominated, it's Ethan Hawke, even if that's a pipe dream. But I don't know. He wasn't nominated at the Golden Globes or SAG, but he's actually been WINNING a lot of minor critics' awards, including in in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, Detroit, San Diego, San Francisco, St. Louis, Toronto, and Vancouver. If Ethan Hawke somehow squeezed his way into a nomination or even a win, I'd be thrilled, but I'm trying not to get my hopes too high.
Update: Uh I don't know, I don't wanna get my hopes up too high.
7. Willem Dafoe- At Eternity's Gate
Formerly #8
A year after receiving his third nomination for The Florida Project, Willem Dafoe has been getting raves for his meaty lead performance as Vincent Van Gogh, including a Golden Globe and Critic's Choice nomination.
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8. Ryan Gosling- First Man
Formerly #6
First Man's cinematic achievements were unfortunately overshadowed by a flag penetration controversy, which is disappointing because I think it's one of Ryan Gosling's strongest performances. Now he's not out of the race yet, particularly with the Critic's Choice awards nomination, but it's an uphill battle.
9. Robert Redford- The Old Man and the Gun
Formerly #7
Robert Redford scored a Golden Globe nomination for what's said to be his final film, although with his lack of other recognition, I actually question if I'm ranking him too high. Still, I think the nature of this film being Redford's swan song gives him a bit of an edge over some of the other contenders.
10. Lucas Hedges- Boy Erased
Formerly #9
Two years after getting his first nomination for Manchester by the Sea, Lucas Hedges has another shot this year with Boy Erased, though the film still lacks the wider recognition of some of the others in the race.
The Long Shots
11. Joaquin Phoenix- You Were Never Really Here
Joaquin Phoenix has a lot of terrific performances and I'm happy that he's managed to add yet another one, even if its recognition will likely be more limited to smaller film circles (like the Spirit Awards where he was nominated)
12. Ben Foster- Leave No Trace
Ben Foster continues to be one of the most underrated actors working today and while he's certainly getting consistent work, it feels like he hasn't yet received the recognition he deserves. Perhaps Leave No Trace could change that? If nothing else, I'm happy to see he's getting some recognition.
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13. John Cho- Searching
John Cho's performance in Searching is quite possibly the meatiest performance he's had to date. The film is best known for its computer screen gimmick, but Cho's performance plays a big role in holding the film together, and has earned him a Spirit Award nomination.
14. Jim Cummings- Thunder Road
Okay, so Cummings isn't being nominated, but I'm just mentioning him because Thunder Road is super great and you should watch it!
15. Daveed Diggs- Blindspotting
Okay, so Diggs isn't being nominated, but I'm just mentioning him because Blindspotting is super great and you should watch it!
Best Actress
The Locks
1. Glenn Close- The Wife
Formerly #4
Glenn Close has been nominated for six Oscars and seems to be gearing up for a seventh one with The Wife, where she's already been nominated at the Golden Globes, Critic's Choice, and SAG. However, as few people have even heard of the film, I don't expect Close to get much more than a nomination.
Update: Wow, this certainly shot up out of nowhere with her wins at the Golden Globes and Critic's Choice. Guess we'll see what happens at SAG.
2. Olivia Colman- The Favourite
Olivia Colman would be a worthy Best Actress winner in my opinion, giving a performance that's equal parts hilarious and depressing. She seems to be a lock for a nomination at this point, but I question if she could compete Gaga's popularity and score a win. We'll see.
3. Lady Gaga- A Star is Born
Formerly #1
While this isn't Lady Gaga's first acting performance, this is a performance that's likely to serve as an acting breakout for her. With numerous award nominations all over and the film's critical and commercial success, she seems like a probable frontrunner for Best Actress at this time.
Update: Lady Gaga will probably still win a Best Original Song Oscar.
4. Melissa McCarthy- Can you Ever Forgive Me?
Formerly #3
Melissa McCarthy got his first Oscar nomination for Bridesmaids 7 years ago, but now she has a real shot of another nomination for a mostly dramatic performance. With nominations at the Golden Globes, Critic's Choice, and SAG among others, McCarthy will likely be recognized come Oscar time, but I doubt it'll materialize into a win.
5. Emily Blunt- Mary Poppins Returns
It's weird knowing that Emily Blunt has never received an Oscar nomination, but perhaps she can change that this year with Mary Poppins, taking over the role that won Julie Andrews an Oscar over 50 years ago.
6. Toni Collette- Hereditary
Won't lie, I'm pretty sad that Toni Collette isn't a frontrunner to win, let alone a lock for a nomination. But she's not out of the woods yet, especially as this category doesn't feel too crowded or competitive this year.
Update: Prove me wrong and nominate her!
7. Yalitza Aparicio- Roma
Formerly #10
Yalitza Aparicio's breakout performance in Roma has dozens of powerful moments and has garnered her some awards recognition, though Cuaron's direction and screenplay remain the primary award contenders for the film
8. Elsie Fisher- Eighth Grader
Formerly #7
Elsie Fisher is only 15 years old, but in Eighth Grade she gave one of my favorite performances of the year, as well as one of the most believable portrayals of a teenager ever that's already scored her a Golden Globe nomination.
9. Viola Davis- Widows
Formerly #11
Viola Davis is strong as usual in Widows, but with little recognition outside a Satellite Award nomination, her chances seem unlikely this year.
Update: Got a BAFTA nomination as well
10. Nicole Kidman- Destroyer
Formerly #8
Nicole Kidman has been getting some of the biggest raves of her career in Destroyer including a Golden Globe nomination, but the film's general recognition is still relatively low at this point.
11. Carey Mulligan- Wildlife
Formerly #9
Carey Mulligan is basically in the same position as Nicole Kidman. She's getting some of the biggest raves of her career but the film's general recognition remains low. The main difference is that she doesn't have a Golden globe nomination.
12. Regina Hall- Support the Girls
Regina Hall is an actress who's been popping up in films for awhile, but Support The Girls has given her the most acclaim of her career, including a Spirit Award nomination and a win at the New York Film Critics Circle.
13. Thomasin McKenzie- Leave No Trace
So Thomasin McKenzie has been getting some supporting acting nominations but she's clearly the film's lead character so screw it. She's great in Leave No Trace. Watch it.
14. Rosamund Pike- A Private War
While far from her first film, Gone Girl proved to be a breakout role for Rosamund Pike, scoring her an Oscar nomination, but her career has taken a somewhat low-key path since then. This hasn't exactly changed as A Private War hasn't been the most talked about film this year, but it has given Pike a Golden Globe nomination.
Best Supporting Actor
The Locks
1. Mahershala Ali- Green Book
Formerly #5
As mentioned with Viggo Mortensen earlier, Mahershala Ali does solid work in a crowdpleaser movie that's already garnered him a SAG, Critic's Choice, and Golden Globe nomination. But to reiterate once more, the question for me is whether or not some of Green Book's controversy over historical inaccuracies with the characters will have any affect on his Oscar chances.
Update: Well, Ali has now won at Critic's Choice and Golden Globes. The film's many controversies have had no affect on him at all. Even if he doesn't win, it's hard to imagine him not being nominated at this point.
2. Richard E. Grant- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
I honestly didn't even know Richard E. Grant by name until this year, though it turns out he's actually been popping up in a lot of stuff over the years. Still, this is easily his most recognized role to date and a probable nomination for the actor.
The Likely Contenders
3. Sam Elliot- A Star is Born
The Likely Contenders
3. Sam Elliot- A Star is Born
Formerly #1
Sam Elliott seemed like a frontrunner to me until he wasn't nominated at the Golden Globes. Still, I've got him at number one because if he's not the frontrunner, then who is? He's still a likely nomination, he's in a critical and commercial success, he's a well-respected actor.
Update: Hard to call him a frontrunner or even a lock at this point, but he still seems probable.
4. Adam Driver- Black Klansman
Adam Driver's been an up-and-coming star for awhile and one I figured would be nominated for an Oscar sooner or later. It seems like it might happen this year in Black Klansman where he's been nominated at the Golden Globes, SAG, and Critic's Choice.
5. Timothée Chalamet- Beautiful Boy
Formerly #3
Just a year after scoring his first nomination for Call Me by Your Name, Timothée Chalamet seems poised for another nomination for Beautiful Boy.
Update: I'm predicting him but he's on much shakier ground considering the film itself hasn't exactly been enthusiastically embraced by awards and critics.
6. Sam Rockwell- Vice
Sam Rockwell just won an Oscar last year and while certainly not a lock like his co-stars Christian Bale and Amy Adams, he could very well receive another nomination for portraying George W. Bush.
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7. Michael B. Jordan- Black Panther
Michael B. Jordan got quite a bit of praise when Black Panther first hit theaters and while he hasn't been scoring everywhere, his nominations, most notably at the Critic's Choice Awards, definitely make him a contender.
The Longshots
8. Josh Hamilton- Eighth Grade
Hamilton isn't really Eighth Grade's most likely nomination, but it's not a competitive category this year that he could maybe squeeze himself in, especially with the Spirit Award nomination under his belt.
9. Steven Yeun- Burning
Yeun was once known simply as Glenn on The Walking Dead but he's built up a formidable career in the last couple years. He's now receiving some of the biggest acclaim of his career in Burning, including winning awards in LA and Toronto.
9. Steven Yeun- Burning
Yeun was once known simply as Glenn on The Walking Dead but he's built up a formidable career in the last couple years. He's now receiving some of the biggest acclaim of his career in Burning, including winning awards in LA and Toronto.
10. Hugh Grant- Paddington 2
Hugh Grant already received a BAFTA nomination last year for his performance in Paddington 2 (the film was released in 2017 in the UK but 2018 in the US) and has since scored a few minor critics' nominations coming into this awards season. Very unlikely to actually happen, but he deserves a mention.
11. Russell Hornsby- The Hate You Give
Hornsby has received some critic award recognition for his performance including a win at the Utah Film Critic's Association.
12. Allesandro Nivola- Disobedience
Nivola and Disobedience as a whole has been largely missing from the Oscar race but Nivola's win at the British Independent Film Awards suggests he could be a minor contender.
13. Daniel Kaluuya- Widows
Definitely not happening but Kaluuya was so great in Widows, my god.
Best Supporting Actress
The Locks
1. Amy Adams- Vice
Amy Adams has received five Oscar nominations to date and perhaps she could finally win this year with Vice.
2. Regina King- If Beale Street Could Talk
Regina King had enough hype that I almost would've considered her a frontrunner over Adams but her snub at the SAG awards was definitely a hit. She's still a probable nominee and could still potentially win.
Update: She's won at the Golden Globes and Critic's Choice but wasn't nominated at SAG or BAFTA. Very hard to say if she's the frontrunner or not.
3. Emma Stone- The Favourite
Just two years after her Oscar win, Emma Stone will likely be nominated again in The Favourite, where she puts on an English accent and a lot of debt.
4. Rachel Weisz- The Favourite
In spite of competing with Emma Stone in this category (I'd argue they're both leads but this is how they're being promoted), I'd say both actresses have a solid chance of being nominated due to the relatively uncrowded category, the film's acclaim, and their recognition at the Golden Globes and SAG awards.
The Likely Contenders
In spite of competing with Emma Stone in this category (I'd argue they're both leads but this is how they're being promoted), I'd say both actresses have a solid chance of being nominated due to the relatively uncrowded category, the film's acclaim, and their recognition at the Golden Globes and SAG awards.
The Likely Contenders
5. Claire Foy- First Man
While Claire Foy's role may be mainly viewed as a simple example of a wife character, I'd argue that her performance elevates the character quite a bit and its garnered her nominations at the Critic's Choice and Golden Globes.
While Claire Foy's role may be mainly viewed as a simple example of a wife character, I'd argue that her performance elevates the character quite a bit and its garnered her nominations at the Critic's Choice and Golden Globes.
6. Emily Blunt- A Quiet Place
Formerly #8I honestly probably wouldn't have even included Blunt if it wasn't for her surprise SAG nomination. Still not convinced it's going to happen, especially when she already has Mary Poppins if the Academy really wants to nominate her, but who knows?
Update: Not a performance I'd nominate, but with the film's fondness at the guilds including a Producer's Guild and Writer's guild nomination, maybe she could sneak into that 5th slot.
Update: Not a performance I'd nominate, but with the film's fondness at the guilds including a Producer's Guild and Writer's guild nomination, maybe she could sneak into that 5th slot.
7. Nicole Kidman- Boy Erased
Formerly #6Nicole Kidman is excellent as usual in Boy Erased, a performance that's garnered her some recognition and may help her squeeze into a non-competitive year.
8. Margot Robbie- Mary, Queen of Scots
Formerly #7
A year after I, Tonya, Margot Robbie has received a SAG nomination for her role as Queen Elizabeth I. Though the overall reception to the film hasn't been super enthusiastic, she still has a chance.
The Longshots
The Longshots
9. Tilda Swinton- Suspiria
Tilda Swinton definitely won't be getting nominated for Suspiria, but wouldn't that be super cool?
Tilda Swinton definitely won't be getting nominated for Suspiria, but wouldn't that be super cool?
10. Elizabeth Debicki- Widows
Elizabeth Debicki also won't be getting nominated for Widows, but she was my favorite part of the film and I hope this is the beginning of a long career for her.
Best Original Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. Eighth Grade
4. Vice
5. Green Book
Could First Reformed kick out Green Book considering screenwriter Nick Vallelonga's recent controversies? Hard to say. First Reformed won Best Screenplay at the Critic's Choice and to win Critic's Choice and not be nominated at the Oscars is borderline unheard of. The only time it happened was when Charlie Kaufman won for his 2 screenplays, Confessions of a Dangerous Mind and Adaptation. Only Adaptation got nominated at the Oscars. Or could A Quiet Place get nominated for its shallow screenplay that everybody seems to be loving for some reason?
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Black Klansman
2. A Star is Born
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Leave no Trace
The first 4 all feel pretty safe but there's a 5th slot with a lot of films battling for it. I'm gonna go with Leave no Trace, but it's not impossible that First Man or Black Panther could sneak their way in.
Best Director
The Locks:
1. Alfonso Cuarón- Roma
2. Bradley Cooper- A Star is Born
3. Spike Lee- Black Klansman
The Likely Contenders:
4. Adam Mckay- Vice
5. Yorgos Lanthimos- The Favourite
6. Peter Farrelly- Green Book
7. Damian Chazelle- First Man
8. Barry Jenkins- If Beale Street Could Talk
The Longshots:
10. Ari Aster- Hereditary
11. Lynne Ramsay- You Were Never Really Here
12. Steve McQueen- Widows
13. Debra Granik- Leave No Trace
14. Paul Schrader- First Reformed
If Peter Farrelly is nominated for Best Director, the Oscars are dead.
Best Picture
1. Roma
2. A Star is Born
3. Black Klansman
4. The Favourite
5. Green Book
6. Vice
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Black Panther
9. First Man
10. If Beale Street Could Talk
11. A Quiet Place
12. Crazy Rich Asians
