Monday, July 7, 2014

2014 Emmy predictions and picks

The Emmys are coming up again. Lots of big contenders, both new and old. Should be interesting to see what makes the cut.
a "2% rule" has been adopted in the comedy and drama series categories, wherein, a seventh nominee could be added to the respective categories if its total first-round votes are within 2% of the sixth place series. As a result, I'm including a 7th choice with my picks.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series


1. Aaron Paul- Breaking Bad
Aaron Paul has already won two Emmys for his work on Breaking Bad, but in the final season he took the series in an interesting direction that will almost definitely get him a nomination and probably emmy win #3.

2. Peter Dinklage- Game of Thrones
Peter Dinklage has 3 Emmy nominations for the 3 previous seasons in Game of Thrones and there's no reason to assume that this season will be different with numerous powerful and memorable scenes to remember.


3. Dean Norris- Breaking Bad
Dean Norris has never been nominated for his role on Breaking Bad, but his performance in the final season took his character to new depths previously unseen and the Emmys have given Breaking Bad two Emmy nominations in this category before.


4. Jon Voight- Ray Donovan
With a Golden Globe win already, Jon Voight seems like a probable nominee. The Emmys tend to find at least one slot to appreciate a new show and I think Voight's performance in Ray Donovan will fill the slot in this category. It's still a shame Ann Biderman's previous show, Southland, never garnered any Emmy nominations for its amazing performances, particularly that of Michael Cudlitz.

5. Josh Charles- The Good Wife
Charles has one previous nomination for The Good Wife, but most people here seem to agree that this season was especially notable for his character.

6. Mandy Patinkin- Homeland
Most people seem to agree that season 3 of Homeland was weaker than its predecessors, but the show already has so much Emmy love that I think they'll squeeze nominations in anyways.


7. Jeffrey Wright- Boardwalk Empire
Last year, new cast member Bobby Cannavale won an Emmy on Boardwalk Empire. Could it be Jeffrey Wright this year? Dr. Narcisse is certainly a fascinating character, with complex motivations and a personality far different from basically any character on tv.


8. John Slattery- Mad Men
Slattery received 4 nominations for the first 4 seasons of Mad Men, then was snubbed for seasons 5 and 6. Season 7 seems to be leaning towards being snubbed, but his performance in the episode "The Monolith" could potentially score him a fifth nomination.


9. Noah Emmerich- The Americans
I had predicted Noah Emmerich to get an Emmy nomination last year and was disappointed when I was wrong because its a deserving performance. That said, in spite of the rave reviews The Americans is still receiving, his hype seems to be less than it was last year.


10. Jim Carter- Downton Abbey
He received nominations for the last 2 seasons, but new and emerging contenders might push him out this year.


11. Peter Sarsgaard- The Killing
While the last season of The Killing received mixed reviews, many people agreed that Sarsgaard's performance was a standout.


12. Kit Harrington- Game of Thrones
Kit Harrington has continued to grow as an actor on Game of Thrones, gaining more recognition and showing more strong dramatic scenes. Probably too soon though.

13. Mads Mikkelsen- Hannibal
I'll say it before and I'll say it again. Mads Mikkelsen is the best actor to ever play Hannibal Lecter. If Hopkins can win an Oscar, Mikkelsen should at least get an Emmy nomination.


14. Jack Huston- Boardwalk Empire
Similar to Harrington, Huston has grown a lot on Boardwalk Empire, but he might be too overshadowed by his co-stars.

15. Michael Kelly- House of Cards
Season 2 of House of Cards took Michael Kelly's Doug Stamper in an interesting direction, allowing Kelly to deliver a stunning subtle and dark performance.


16. Charles Dance- Game of Thrones
Dance is one of many in the talented ensemble on Game of Thrones. If he was a guest actor, a nomination would probably be guaranteed.


17. Walton Goggins- Justified
Walton Goggins should have at least 2 Emmy nominations for Justified by now, plus a couple for The Shield as well. Instead he has one. That said, season 5 was not the strongest season so his chances are even less likely than usual.

18. Tony Goldwyn- Scandal
Scandal remains immensely popular and Goldwyn's performance is praised, but the amount of impact he really has on the show will depend on the viewer.


19. Rory McCann- Game of Thrones
One of the most underrated performances on Game of Thrones, but McCann is almost guaranteed to be overlooked. Just the sad truth.


20. Gerald McRaney- House of Cards
McRaney followed up a great performance on Southland with a great performance on House of Cards, but with such a large ensemble, it's hard to know if he'll be noticed.

21. Michael K. Williams- Boardwalk Empire
After 3 seasons of being a supporting player, appearing in just a little over half the episodes, Williams was able to step it up as Chalky White this season, arguably becoming the protagonist of the season and he certainly delivered.

22. Mahershala Ali- House of Cards
Not a performance that gets enough talk. Ali's performance as Remy manages to balance both sliminess and sweetness with ease.

23. Nikolaj Coster Waldau- Game of Thrones
A performance that should have been nominated last year. Coster-Waldau didn't really give anything good enough this year but I still feel obligated to include him.

24. Vincent Kartheiser- Mad Men
Still no nominations on Mad Men after all these years, so I don't expect anything different this year, but he deserves a shoutout.

25. Scott Wilson- The Walking Dead
Being a genre show, its unlikely for Walking Dead to get acting nods, but Scott Wilson gives a powerful performance as the show's moral center.


26. Steven Yeun- The Walking Dead
Yeun is definitely underrated, with several notable scenes and arguably the closest to an "everyman" on the show, but it's still a genre show.

27. Ben Feldman- Mad Men
Ginsberg's character was taken into a...strange direction this season. I won't spoil it but I'll just say that Feldman (who was nominated for Mad Men in 2012) makes the direction his character takes believable and real.

28. Jimmy Smits- Sons of Anarchy
Becoming the show's moral center on a show full of amorality is tough, but Smits definitely pulls it off.

29. Matthew Lillard- The Bridge
Lillard's character was went through some interesting directions on The Bridge, very heavy on character development which ultimately deserves a shoutout.

30. Samuel Roukin- Turn
All I'll say is wow, what a great villain. Turn barely escaped cancellation though so we should just be happy with the renewal.

My Picks
Josh Charles- The Good Wife
Peter Dinklage- Game of Thrones
Dean Norris- Breaking Bad (Winner)
Aaron Paul- Breaking Bad
Mads Mikkelsen- Hannibal
Jon Voight- Ray Donovan (7th place)
Jeffrey Wright- Boardwalk Empire

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series


1. Anna Gunn- Breaking Bad
She already won last year, but with the universal praise of Breaking Bad's final season, she could win two in a row.

2. Maggie Smith- Downton Abbey
An obligatory nominee at this point.
3. Christine Baranski-The Good Wife
With the hype around this season of The Good Wife, it could have one nomination in every acting category available, Baranski being the most hyped here.

4. Christina Hendricks- Mad Men
Hendricks is obligatory at this point as well, but it's well deserved because...well Joan Holloway is amazing.
5. Emilia Clarke- Game of Thrones
With a previous nomination under her belt (but ultimately stolen from another GOT actor in my opinion), she seems to be on her way to recognition once more.

6. Michelle Monaghan- True Detective
The obligatory slot for the new show nominee will likely go to Monaghan in True Detective, even though it's arguably a miniseries, the show is representing itself as a drama series, making Monaghan's performance a contender.


7. Archie Panjabi- The Good Wife
She'll probably be overshadowed by her co-star but there's always a chance with The Good Wife.

8. Joanne Froggatt- Downton Abbey
Also will probably be overshadowed by her co-star, but there's always a chance for two nominees from the same show.


9. Hayden Panitierre- Nashville
Following a Golden Globe nomination, it seems possible, but Nashville seems to have less hype this season.


10. Monica Potter- Parenthood
Many say she was snubbed last season, so I guess time will tell if she'll get a second chance.


11. Betsy Brandt- Breaking Bad
Not really the show's standout, but with Breaking Bad's hype in general, anything is possible.

12. Annet Mahendru- The Americans
She really stepped it up this season as Nadia, which is why its so unfortunate that the show's hype has lessened.

13. Lena Heady- Game of Thrones
Love her or hate her, Heady's performance is fantastic.


14. Molly Parker- House of Cards
Bringing this new character into a well established cast was risky, but Parker pulled it off well, successfully integrating herself into the rest of the cast.

15. Maisie Williams- Game of Thrones
Williams is by far one of the best child actors in the history of television. Enough said.

16. Bellamy Young- Scandal
Obligatory Scandal actor.


17. Sandra Oh- Grey's Anatomy
The show has been off of Emmy radars for awhile, but the amount of hype involving Oh's character could bring it back.

18. Jessica Pare- Mad Men
Nobody's favorite character on Mad Men, but I think it'd be wrong to deny numerous strong scenes from Pare this season.

19. Rachel Brosnahan- House of Cards
One of those actors nobody is talking about, Brosnahan gives a really emotional and dark performance on House of Cards, taking a character who shouldn't have been necessary to the story and making her fit in perfectly.


20. Gretchen Mol- Boardwalk Empire
She seriously should have gotten it for season 2, but Mol's work on Boardwalk Empire continues to be a reason to keep watching.


21. Melissa McBride- The Walking Dead
Watching the development of Carol on Walking Dead is by far one of the show's best elements and McBride deserves a shoutout, but it's still a genre show.

22. Danai Gurira- The Walking Dead
Basically my praise is identical to McBride. Great character development.

23. Maggie Siff-Sons of Anarchy
Season 6 was not the best season of Sons of Anarchy, but it definitely took things in an interesting direction for Tara and we truly emphasized with her even when we didn't always agree thanks to Maggie Siff's performance.

24. Jennifer Carpenter- Dexter
A really horrible season of television that is still MILDLY elevated by Jennifer Carpenter's strong performance.

My Picks
Christine Baranski- The Good Wife
Anna Gunn- Breaking Bad (Winner)
Christina Hendricks- Mad Men
Annet Mahendru- The Americans
Michelle Monaghan- True Detective (7th choice)
Maggie Siff- Sons of Anarchy
Maisie Williams- Game of Thrones

Outstanding Lead Actress
1. Robin Wright- House of Cards
.Bringing a controversial storyline into the mix, Wright's performance in season 2 of House of Cards truly blew me away in the best ways possible and she deserves to win.

2. Julianna Marguilies- The Good Wife
A fan favorite of the Emmys. Snubbed last year, but with the hype of season 5, she'll almost certainly get a nomination this year.

3. Elisabeth Moss- Mad Men
Another favorite of the Emmys. She's been nominated five times in a row and there's no reason to assume this year will be different.


4. Kerry Washington- Scandal
She's fresh off a previous nomination with one of the highest rated shows on tv. Very, very likely.


5. Claire Danes- Homeland
Homeland season 3 sucked and I'm not the only one who thinks that. She won't win this year, that's for sure, but I don't think it sucked enough for the Emmys to write her off completely, then again it sucked enough for the golden globes to do just that.

6. Tatiana Maslany- Orphan Black
An acclaimed performance that has gradually built up in hype, Maslany getting nominated isn't a guarantee but would show that the Emmys care about more than just the mainstream.


7. Keri Russell- The Americans
Unexpectedly snubbed last year, she still has a chance this year, but her hype has SLIGHTLY died down.


8. Vera Farmiga- Bates Motel
In my opinion, she should have won last year. This year...maybe not, but she'd be lucky to have a nomination.

9. Lizzy Caplan- Masters of Sex
It's common for somebody on a new show to be nominated, so Caplan could be the one to take that slot because she's the only real contender from a first season show.

10. Connie Britton- Nashville
She surprised me by getting a nomination last year, making her fourth Emmy nomination in a row (for 3 different shows), but I think the streak is coming to an end.


11. Michelle Dockery- Downton Abbey
Downton Abbey has simply died down in its hype this season, so in spite of her nominations in the last 2 years, I don't think third time will be the charge.

12. Mireille Enos- The Killing
An acclaimed performance on a no longer acclaimed show that deserves a shoutout anyways.

13. Katey Sagal- Sons of Anarchy
Even if this season wasn't the best, Katey Sagal just deserves a nomination. she's phenomenal on the show and its a crime she still has been ignored. She even won a Golden Globe.


14. Diane Kruger- The Bridge
This is a new show as well, but The Bridge lacks the hype Masters of Sex has. Kruger is strong but not strong enough.


15. Mariska Hargitay- Law & Order: SVU
In its fifteenth season, SVU took some surprising risks, but Hargitay's Emmy streak has come to an end.


16. Gabrielle Union- Being Mary Jane
A small show with a notable lead performance that could get a nomination someday with enough hype built up.

My Picks
Vera Farmiga- Bates Motel (7th Choice)
Juliana Margulies- The Good Wife
Tatiana Maslaney- Orphan Black
Elisabeth Moss- Mad Men
Keri Russell- The Americans
Katey Sagal- Sons of Anarchy
Robin Wright- House of Cards (Winner)

Outstanding Lead Actor
1. Bryan Cranston- Breaking Bad
He's already won 3 times and been nominated for every season so it's no surprise that this will be similar. With the praise of the final season, it could even be a win, but he does have strong competition.

2. Matthew McConaughey- True Detective
It's an anthology show, so typically this would be in the miniseries category, but its being promoted as a drama series so whatever. McConaughey, fresh off of his Oscar nomination (and later win), blew me away as Rust Cohle, now America's favorite nihilist.


3. Jon Hamm- Mad Men
He'll probably end up like Martin Sheen. Hamm has 6 nominations and 0 wins, so this year will probably be 7 nominations and 0 wins.


4. Kevin Spacey- House of Cards
Spacey continues to engage audiences effectively on House of Cards. A second nomination will probably be headed his way.

5. James Spader- The Blacklist
In my opinion, Spader doesn't deserve it. It's a show with good ideas that never takes advantage of his potential, instead wasting time on annoying subplots that go nowhere. Even so, Spader is by far the best part of the show, completely overshadowing his dull co-stars


6. Woody Harrelson- True Detective
Harrelson did a great job at playing a fairly unlikable cop and family man, while squeezing in hints of sympathy throughout. He and McConaughey ultimately complete each other, so it would seem unfair to not nominate both.


7. Jeff Daniels- The Newsroom
He won an Emmy last year that he DID NOT DESERVE. He didn't even deserve to be nominated. Good performance? Sure. Best performance. NO!

8. Michael Sheen- Masters of Sex
A new actor to the race who got honored with a Golden Globe nomination, but with so many established contenders and new people to the mix, it's hard to say if he'll squeeze himself in. It's possible.


9. Matthew Rhys- The Americans
He was surprisingly snubbed last year, but could still get a chance this year for his work that I actually think was better this season, particularly the episode "Marital Eagle" (2x09). I think he would be a worthy nominee, but the show's hype has sadly died down.


10. Steve Buscemi- Boardwalk Empire
A heavy contender in the early seasons of Boardwalk Empire. The show is still strong, but Nucky isn't quite the focus he once was, so a nomination seems less likely.

11. Hugh Dancy- Hannibal
A really amazing performance that's only improved in season 2. Dancy perfectly balances torment, anxiety, sympathy, and even creepiness in creating the perfect Will Graham.


12. Timothy Olyphant- Justified
Olyphant's performance as Justified has been regularly overlooked except when he was nominated for season 2. That said, this season would be understandable. It's still really entertaining, but it's not the strongest season.


13. Damian Lewis- Homeland
Damian Lewis has always been my favorite part of Homeland, so I was one of many fans disappointed by his reduced role in season 3. That said, he made his scenes count, but I'm not convinced it was good enough for a 3rd nom, in spite of him winning 2 years ago.


14. Liev Schrieber-Ray Donovan
A new show shoutout. Schrieber got a Golden Globe nomination, but so much Emmy hype is focused on his co-star Jon Voight.


15. Andrew Lincoln- The Walking Dead
A popular performance that remains watched by millions, but Lincoln is still in a genre show.


16. Charlie Hunnam- Sons of Anarchy
Hunnam has given a lot of terrific work on Sons of Anarchy, season 6 included, but he's been snubbed five times. No signs it'll change now, especially in a weaker season.

17. Freddie Highmore- Bates Motel
Highmore has given phenomenal work in Bates Motel, but there's just not enough hype.


18. Joel Kinnaman- The Killing
An acclaimed performance on a no longer acclaimed show that deserves a shoutout anyways.

19. Demian Bichir- The Bridge
New show shoutout again. Bichir is phenomenal on The Bridge, focusing heavily on mixing subtly with raw emotion, but its too new and too unknown.


20. Michael C. Hall- Dexter
Season 8 of Dexter was an insult to the entire series, but Michael C. Hall still slightly elevates the material.
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21. Jamie Bell- Turn
A new show featuring strong work from Jamie Bell, but it's too new and just barely escaped cancellation, so I'm not expecting any nominations.

My Picks
Bryan Cranston- Breaking Bad (winner)
Hugh Darcy- Hannibal
Jon Hamm- Mad Men
Woody Harrelson- True Detective (7th Choice)
Matthew McConaughey- True Detective
Matthew Rhys- The Americans
Kevin Spacey- House of Cards

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series


1. Robert Morse- Mad Men
Without spoiling anything, Robert Morse gives some of his best work on this season of Mad Men. He's been nominated for Mad Men four times before. In spite of its acclaim, Mad Men has never won an acting Emmy and its about time in my opinion.


2. Beau Bridges- Masters of Sex
Beau Bridges is a favorite with the Emmys. He's been nominated 14 times, winning 3 times. His work on Masters of Sex is as impressive as ever and it would be a shame for him to be snubbed.


3. Dan Bucatinsky- Scandal
Fresh off a win last year, it seems likely that Bucatinsky will get a second nomination.


4. Nathan Lane- The Good Wife
The Good Wife is notably for its strong guest actors and tends to gather at least one nomination. Lane seems to be the likely candidate for this year.

5. Pedro Pascal- Game of Thrones
Pascal gave some mind blowing work in this season of Game of Thrones. Bringing in a new character into an already established ensemble at this point in a series is definitely a risky move, but Pascal does an amazing job at integrating his character into the series.


6. Paul Giamatti- Downton Abbey
An established hollywood actor giving acclaimed work on a show beloved by the Emmys? I can see it happening.

7. Lee Tergesen- The Americans
Tergesen has constantly been popping up on tv shows since appearing on Oz and his role on The Americans is definitely one of his best in years. I'm not convinced he'll get the nomination, but he certainly deserves it.

8. Ray Romano- Parenthood
Parenthood hasn't had tons of hype and recognition, but Romano's dramatic work has gotten its fair amount of attention that a nomination could happen with enough luck.

9. Costa Ronin- The Americans
Another really impressive actor on The Americans with a performance that's not getting as much recognition as it deserves.

10. Walton Goggins- Sons of Anarchy
Goggins appeared as a transgendered prostitute on last season of Sons of Anarchy, but it was primarily played for laughs. This time, his character was greatly humanized, creating one of the most progressive portrayals of a transgendered character in recent memory and Goggins sells it perfectly.


11. James Woods- Ray Donovan
Great work as usual from James Woods, successfully creating a believable and morally grey crook.


12. Eddie Izzard- Hannibal
Izzard has received strong reviews for his creepy work on Hannibal, but the show itself still might not be hyped enough.


13. Michael Bowen- Breaking Bad
Breaking Bad is sure to get a lot of Emmy nominations. Bowen is very strong here, though his character lacks the dimensions of many others so its hard to say if his evilness will be good enough.

14. Hamish Linklater- The Newsroom
His character kinda comes out of nowhere, but Linklater does a great job at showing his character's reasoning behind morally grey choices.

15. Pablo Schreiber- Law & Order: SVU
Schreiber plays SVU's longest lasting villain and his sheer scariness makes me forget about all of his other work, such as The Wire and Orange is the New Black. Definitely breathed new life into a series that was getting redundant.


16. Reg E. Cathey- House of Cards
Cathey played a simple role on House of Cards initially, but season 2 successfully took a risk and developed his character, showing his moral convictions and the tough position he's in.


17. Jeremy Davies- Justified
Davies has been nominated twice for Justified, winning once. Perhaps his role this season wasn't mindblowing, but it's always worth a shoutout.


18. Louis Gossett Jr.- Boardwalk Empire
A one episode performance from a hollywood legend, Gossett may not be the name he once was, but his performance made me want to see his other work again.

19. Michael Rapaport- Justified
His hick accent was criticized, but I enjoyed Rapaport's performance on Justified. He brought a strong physical presence and had good chemistry with his family.


20. Michael Pitt- Hannibal
One word: CREEPY!


21. Eric Lange- The Bridge
An engaging performance to put it simply

My Picks
Beau Bridges- Masters of Sex
Dan Bucatinsky- Scandal (7th Choice)
Walton Goggins- Sons of Anarchy
Robert Morse- Mad Men (Winner)
Pedro Pascal- Game of Thrones
Michael Pitt- Hannibal
Lee Tergesen- The Americans

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series


1. Alison Janney- Masters of Sex
Already a favorite with the Emmys for her work on The West Wing, Janney gives her best performance in years on Masters of Sex.
2. Diana Rigg- Game of Thrones
Fresh off a nomination last year, Rigg continues to deliver in season 4.


3. Carrie Preston- The Good Wife
Fresh off of a win last year on a show as award popular as The Good Wife? You can count on it.


4. Lisa Kudrow- Scandal
Kudrow's already a fan favorite with the Emmys, so getting notice for her dramatic work on Scandal seems like a safe bet.


5. Jane Fonda- The Newsroom
She's fresh off a nomination last year, although The Newsroom isn't exactly the most acclaimed show on television.


6. Diane Wiest- The Blacklist
The Blacklist had a nice little role for Diane Wiest that was only one episode due to its procedural format, but with the hype The Blacklist has, it could happen.


7. Katharine Isabelle- Hannibal
I'd love to see this one. Isabelle does a great job at balancing anger and vulnerability.


8. Gillian Anderson- Hannibal
It comes off as a bit unnatural at times, but I think that's why it works because of the introverted personality of the character. Anderson is already noted by the Emmys for her work on The X-files but with a show as overlooked as Hannibal, it's hard to say.


9. CCH Pounder- Sons of Anarchy
CCH Pounder received one nomination for her outstanding work on The Shield. Her character on Sons of Anarchy perhaps has a few too many similarities, but she played a great antagonist to the titular biker club.


10. Margo Martindale- The Americans
She was nominated last year but her role this season lacked any truly memorable scenes. Strong work? Yes, but that alone might not be enough.

11. Charlotte Rampling- Dexter
One of the only things on season 8 of Dexter that didn't suck, even if her character comes out of nowhere.


12. Mary Steenburgen- Justified
Another character who jumps in rather unexpectedly, but Steenburgen successfully integrates herself into the show and makes viewers want to see more.

My Picks
Katharine Isabelle- Hannibal
Alison Janney- Masters of Sex
Lisa Kudrow- Scandal
CCH Pounder- Sons of Anarchy (7th Choice)
Carrie Preston- The Good Wife
Diana Rigg- Game of Thrones
Mary Steenburgen- Justified



Outstanding Drama Series
1. Breaking Bad
2. True Detective
3. House of Cards
4. Game of Thrones
5. The Good Wife
6. Mad Men
7. Downton Abbey
8. Homeland
9. Masters of Sex
10. The Americans
11. Boardwalk Empire
12. Scandal
13. Ray Donovan
14. Hannibal
15. Dexter
16. The Blacklist
17. Orphan Black
18. Justified
19. Sons of Anarchy
20. The Walking Dead
21. The Newsroom
22. Bates Motel
23. The Bridge

My Picks
Breaking Bad (Winner)
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife (7th Choice)
Hannibal
House of Cards
Mad Men
True Detective