These numbered lists are in order of likelihood of winning, not personal preference.
Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio- The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender- Steve Jobs
3. Eddie Redmayne- The Danish Girl
4. Matt Damon- The Martian
5. Bryan Cranston- Trumbo
Leonardo DiCaprio is winning this. There's a TINY chance that Fassbender will take it through some miracle, but he's sweeping all of the awards shows. DiCaprio is winning tonight. Redmayne won last year, Damon is in a science-fiction film, and Cranston's film is too small.
Best Actress
1. Brie Larson- Room
2. Saorise Ronan- Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett- Carol
4. Charlotte Rampling- 45 Years
5. Jennifer Lawrence- Joy
Brie Larson also likely has this one in the bag. Lawrence and Rampling barely made it in, Blanchett just won 2 years ago, and Ronan, the only potential spoiler, isn't sweeping any of the awards.
Best Supporting Actor
1. Sylvester Stallone- Creed
2. Mark Rylance- Bridge of Spies
3. Tom Hardy- The Revenant
4. Mark Ruffalo- Spotlight
5. Christian Bale- The Big Short
A hard one to predict, but I think Stallone will get it, having won the Golden Globe and Critic's Choice award. However, Rylance also won BAFTA (where Stallone wasn't nominated) and Tom Hardy might just win the voters over by starring in the two most nominated films (The Revenant and Mad Max). Less likely but Mark Ruffalo could get in due to Spotlight's acclaim. It's not going to Academy Award Winner Christian Bale.
Best Supporting Actress
1. Alicia Vikander- The Danish Girl
2. Kate Winslet- Steve Jobs
3. Rooney Mara- Carol
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh- The Hateful Eight
5. Rachel McAdams- Spotlight
It's between Vikander and Winslet, but I suspect its Vikander to win. Although Winslet won the Golden Globe and BAFTA, Vikander was nominated for leading in those categories so they weren't competing. Meanwhile, Vikander has won SAG and critic's choice and was also in the celebrated Ex Machina. Mara could potentially squeeze in if Vikander and Winslet cancel each other out.
Best Original Screenplay
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
3. Bridge of Spies
4. Ex Machina
5. Straight Outta Compton
Spotlight is the only one of the 5 nominations that's a potential Best Picture winner and has been sweeping most of the screenplay awards. A pretty safe win.
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Big Short
2. The Martian
3. Room
4. Carol
5. Brooklyn
This is actually a pretty competitive category and in theory any of these nominees could win, but I think The Big Short has it. It's acclaimed, it's a Best Picture frontrunner and it's screenplay is the film's biggest strength.
Best Director
1. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu- The Revenant
2. Tom McCarthy- Spotlight
3. George Miller- Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Adam McKay- The Big Short
5. Lenny Abrahamson- Room
Having won the Director's Guild Award, AGI should have this, but having also won last year for Birdman might make Academy voters less susceptible to him. McCarthy or McKay would be more typical choices but Miller also got a surprise 10 nominations for his film so he could be a pleasant surprise. But I still think Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu is going to win his 2nd Oscar in a row.
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Best Picture
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. The Big Short
4. The Martian
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Room
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brooklyn
This is the closest race in a long time. The Screen Actors Guild Award, Producers Guild Award, and Directors Guild Award are all the biggest indicators and they went to different films. Spotlight won The Screen Actors Guild Award, The Big Short won The Producers Guild Award, and The Revenant won the Directors Guild Award. I'm going with The Revenant, but it could really go to any of these three.
