That guy who watches movies: December 2014

By Alex Bauman

Best Supporting Actress

1. Patricia Arquette- Boyhood
She's seemingly been the frontrunner since Boyhood came out. Besides being an obvious nomination, at this point it's hard to picture anyone else winning.

January 13th Update: Her Golden Globe win is of no surprise and only furthers her chances

2. Emma Stone- Birdman

I've always liked Emma Stone but she brings her acting abilities to a whole other level in Birdman. With the film's overall hype plus her SAG and Golden Globe nominations, Stone is an obvious nomination at this point.

3. Keira Knightley- The Imitation Game
Formerly #4

At first I thought that Benedict Cumberbatch would overshadow all other actors but it looks like Keira Knightley has managed to gain recognition alongside Cumberbatch at several award shows, including the Globes and SAG. This'll be Knightley's second nomination, her first occurring 9 years ago for Pride and Prejudice.

4. Meryl Streep- Into The Woods
Formerly #3

It's Meryl Streep. Enough said.

5. Rene Russo- Nightcrawler
Formerly #6

6. Jessica Chastain- A Most Violent Year
Formerly #5

While I currently predict Jessica Chastain, her nomination is definitely the most up in the air. Still, the general acclaim of A Most Violent Year and the lack of contenders in this category should help her chances. Only one actress truly could squeeze her out.

January 11 update: Make that two actresses

7. Laura Dern- Wild
Formerly #6

That actress is Laura Dern in Wild. Dern was snubbed by SAG and the Golden Globes but with Wild's hype and praise for Dern's performance, she could still squeeze in an upset nomination.

8. Tilda Swinton- Snowpiercer
Formerly #7
Swinton's wonderfully campy performance as the loyal spokeswoman for Snowpiercer's dictator antagonist has received recognition at several smaller award shows including the Critic's Choice awards and the Satellite Awards. But the film itself is still a science fiction film and thus won't be recognized by the Academy.

9. Katherine Waterston- Inherent Vice
Formerly #8
Waterston (daughter of Sam Waterston) started off as a seemingly early contender for a Best Supporting Actress nomination, but now she's mostly forgotten and more hype is centered on her co-stars Joaquin Phoenix and Josh Brolin. Perhaps an upset nomination could happen but I wouldn't count on it.

11. Carmen Ejojo- Selma
Formerly #10
Not a performance that's getting a lot of attention but she is the most prominent actress in a film getting a lot of Best Picture hype. And it's a role she already played 13 years earlier in the film Boycott.

12. Naomi Watts- Birdman/St. Vincent
Formerly #10
Naomi Watts surprised everyone with her SAG nomination for St. Vincent. In spite of that, I think that's all it is. A surprise nomination and nothing more will come of it. That said, her performance in Birdman, while not the main or most memorable storyline, was still very strong and deserves a shoutout, even if Emma Stone will ultimately steal her spot.

13. Adriana Barraza- Cake
Formerly #12
Barraza's performance in Cake has been praised but with the promotion focused on Aniston, there's only a slim chance.

Best Supporting Actor

1. J.K. Simmons- Whiplash
J.K. Simmons is another likely winner at this point, though not quite as guaranteed as Arquette.

2. Edward Norton- Birdman

Norton hasn't had a role this strong in years and now it seems his comeback has truly been made. He gives one of many great performances in Birdman and the film's overall praise and hype will likely get him a nod.

3. Ethan Hawke- Boyhood

Ethan Hawke didn't have a lot of hype after Boyhood came out, but in these last weeks, Boyhood's hype still hasn't died down and his hype has only built up as a result of it with SAG and Golden Globe nominations to his credit.

4. Mark Ruffalo- Foxcatcher

Ruffalo is currently the safest of the Foxcatcher stars as far as getting a nomination goes. While he's not as highlighted in the trailers, people seem to agree that he's just as strong as his co-stars and is a very likely nomination at this point.

Update: After seeing the film, I'll say that his performance is wonderfully subtle. He completely owns the scene where he's being interviewed on camera.

5. Josh Brolin- Inherent Vice
Formerly #6

A wild card nominee at this point. Inherent Vice might not be Oscar material but many who love it have called Brolin the best part of the film.

Final Prediction: Since the Oscars tend to have at least one wildcard actor make the cut every year, I expect Brolin to be that actor and knock Duvall out. I've been wrong before though.

6. Robert Duvall- The Judge
Formerly #5

This is where it gets iffy. The first 4 are basically guarantee nominations. The question now is simply who'll fill in that fifth slot. Duvall seemed like a nominee at first but then The Judge came out, got mixed reviews, and people forgot about it. Then he got surprise nominations at both the SAG and Golden Globes and he's right back in the race again.

Final Prediction: Yeah, he got those nominations, but the film was still a critical AND commercial failure. He's an excellent actor but what is there to gain by nominating him?

7. Christoph Waltz- Big Eyes

Christoph Waltz continues to impress since his breakout role 5 years ago in Inglourious Basterds. He got a golden globe nomination and the film's received decent reviews but it doesn't seem that hyped at this point.

8. Riz Ahmed- Nightcrawler
New Addition
He's not going to get it but I felt he deserved a shoutout. Plus he got nominated for a spirit award.

9. Tom Wilkinson- Selma
Formerly #8
Before the SAG and Globe nominations, I would have pegged wlkinson for spot #5. He's an excellent actor playing a real life president in a film likely to get a Best Picture nomination. But he was snubbed at both the Globes and SAG so it's hard to say at this point.

10. Miyavi- Unbroken
Formerly #9

This is a film with a lot of hype and mixed reviews. Miyavi is the youngest of the best supporting actor possibilities and Unbroken is his film debut. But the hype surrounding Unbroken may be dead due to the mixed reviews and the SAG and Golden Globe snubs.

Update: make that second youngest.

11. Albert Brooks- A Most Violent Year
Formerly #10

In my opinion, Albert Brooks' snub for Drive 3 years ago is one of the biggest oscar snubs in Academy history. He should have been competing with Christopher Plummer for the win. Instead he wasn't even nominated. I was hoping A Most violent Year would give him an overdue second oscar nomination, but most of the praise has focused on Oscar Issac and Jessica Chastain.

12. James Gandolfini- The Drop
Formerly #11
James Gandolfini got a lot of Oscar buzz last year for Enough Said but for some reason hasn't for his final film, The Drop, which is really unfortunate since his performance is excellent. In spite of playing a criminal, his character bears few similarities to Tony Soprano in what could be the best film performance of his career.

13. John Goodman- The Gambler
Formerly #12

Goodman is undeniably an underrated character actor and it's great to see he's still getting work. His role as a loan shark could prove to show a scary side to Goodman not seen often, but the film might not be Oscar material.

14. Matthias Schoenaerts-The Drop
Formerly #13
Schoenaerts gave an underrated performance in The Drop that wasn't at all highlighted in the trailers. He does a terrific job at making the audience despise him without resorting to cartoonish villainy.

Best Actress

1. Julianne Moore- Still Alice

Oh look, another shoe-in. Julianne Moore is going to win this year after 4 previous nominations. She's an amazing actress, long overdue. At this point, there's no one else I can imagine stealing her thunder. It's Moore's to take.

2. Reese Witherspoon- Wild

Personally, I thought Reese Witherspoon was going to be one of those one-time nominee, one-time winner actresses. It seemed like her performances and films afterwards simply didn't match up to Walk The Line. Well, I'm glad to say I was wrong. Reese Witherspoon is a nearly guaranteed nominee at this point, but I don't expect her to win. After all, she already won 9 years ago so she doesn't have the overdue status that Moore has. But her performance in Wild, directed by Dallas Buyer Clubs' Jean Marc Vallee, will likely score her second nomination.

3. Felicity Jones- The Theory of Everything

Jones has become a slowly rising star although this was my first time seeing the young actress on film. Jones gives a wonderful performance bringing Jane Hawking to life in all the best ways.

4. Rosamund Pike- Gone Girl

Not a 100% guarantee, but a probable nominee. Rosamund Pike does a wonderful job in Gone Girl and has been recognized with SAG and Golden Globe nominations. The only possible detriment is that the film is pretty dark and not exactly "Oscar-bait" but hopefully her performance is good enough that the academy won't care.

5. Jennifer Aniston- Cake
Once again, the fifth slot must be filled and Aniston seems like the most likely choice right now. In spite of Cake's mixed reviews, Aniston's performance has been praised (and people really love her lack of makeup). She's gotten SAG and Golden Globe nominations to help her out but could the mixed reviews ultimately damage her chances. We'll see.

6. Amy Adams- Big Eyes

Amy Adams already has 5 nominations over the last 9 years. Can she make it 6 nominations over 10 years? Big Eyes has solid reviews (better than Cake) and Adams' performance has been praised, including receiving a Golden Globe nomination, but the film will need more recognition to get Adams an Oscar nomination

7. Marion Cotillard- Two Days, One Night
Formerly #8

French actress Marion Cottilard won an Oscar for La Vie En Rose and was expected to get a second nomination for her performance in Rust and Bone before being unexpectedly snubbed. She's received oscar buzz again for her performance in the Belgian drama Two Days, One Night and has received a Critic's Choice nomination. However, the film is still mostly unseen by US audiences.

8. Hilary Swank- The Homesman
Formerly #7
An acclaimed actress who's not as seen as she used to be, Swank's received acclaim for her performance in Tommy Lee Jones' The Homesman and even appeared at the Oscar roundtable. But the film itself is still scarcely seen, making the nomination not too likely at this point.

9. Emily Blunt- Into The Woods

Emily Blunt recently received a Golden Globe nomination for Into the Woods but the Oscar attention is still primarily focused on Meryl Streep.

10. Julianne Moore- A Map to the Stars

Moore received a Golden Globe nomination for A Map to The Stars alongside Still Alice but Still Alice is still likely to overshadow her hype in this film

11. Helen Mirren- The Hundred-Foot Journey

Mirren's performance in Lasse Holstrom's newest film has received positive reviews as usual but even with a Golden Globe nomination, it's probably a bit too forgotten at this point.

Best Actor

The Best Actor category has the largest number of contenders this year, but I'd still say that it's primarily been narrowed down to 6 people. The others are just dark horses. There are also several common Oscar bait traits that are especially common in this category. They include losing weight, playing a real person, career comeback, playing against type, and playing an LGBT character. Please note that I'm not saying there's anything wrong with performances that include these traits, many of these performances are excellent. I'm just saying they're usually more likely to attract Oscar voters.

UPDATE: Ralph Fiennes is definitely a Best actor contender so it's now 7 men fighting for the five slots.

1. Michael Keaton- Birdman

The Best actor race has basically been narrowed down to 6 people and Keaton is the only one who I think is guaranteed to make the slot. Keaton gives a truly phenomenal performance in Birdman and it's one hell of a comeback. The Academy loves a good comeback, that's a fact.

2. Eddie Redmayne- The Theory of Everything
Formerly #3

Oh look, once again an actor playing a real person. Indeed, Eddie Redmayne gives a phenomenal performance as Stephen Hawking, truly embodying the man without making it feel like a desperate Oscar push. And with multiple award nominations already, Redmayne is a probable nominee.

January 13th Update: His Golden Globe win makes him a lock.

3. Benedict Cumberbatch- The Imitation Game
Formerly #2

Benedict Cumberbatch had a failed Oscar grab attempt last year with The Fifth Estate, a film with a lot of hype that ultimately received mixed reviews. This time, The Imitation Game has given him the recognition many were hoping for. He also has the advantage of playing a real person, something that's always attracted the Academy.

4. Jake Gyllenhaal- Nightcrawler
Formerly #6

I didn't expect Gyllenhaal to be a contender but I'm glad that he is, especially after he was criminally overlooked for his performance in Prisoners last year. His performance in Nightcrawler has garnered him a Golden Globe, SAG, and critic's choice nomination among others, but I currently predict him to be the odd man out in the major 6 contenders for Best Actor at the moment. Why is that? It's simply because his performance isn't Oscar bait (besides the fact that he lost weight). He plays a fictional, very immoral, character in a film few people have seen. He deserves the nomination but the Academy has snubbed excellent performances before and they've certainly snubbed Gyllenhaal.

January 9 Update: Gyllenhaal has been getting nominated at seemingly every award show, even winning a handful of Critic's awards. I would actually place him at #2 if it weren't for the fact that I still fear the rather non-Oscar baity nature of his performance could still cause problems, but I'm more optimistic at this point.

5. Ralph Fiennes- Grand Budapest Hotel

Formerly #7

Grand Budapest Hotel came out way in March but it garnered 4 Golden Globe nominations including Best actor for Fiennes. Fiennes was also recognized at the Critic's Choice awards. That said, I still feel too much time has passed and it's too...atypical to appease Academy voters.

January 13th update: Fiennes didn't win at the Golden Globes but The Grand Budapest Hotel itself did. It's now a probable Best picture and best director nominee. This doesn't guarantee anything for Fiennes but it does help his chances a lot.

Final prediction: The film's overall hype combined with Carell's possibility of a supporting actor nomination makes me think Fiennes might squeeze in.

6. Steve Carell- Foxcatcher
Formerly #5

Oh look, another actor playing a real person. Steve Carrell initially seemed to be the frontrunner but Birdman's hype has now overshadowed it. He's still got a SAG and Golden Globe nomination to his credit, although he was ignored by the Critic's Choice awards.

January 9 update: Carell has been largely ignored by Critic's awards but still managed to get nominated by arguably the most important predecessors: SAG, Golden Globes, and BAFTA (as a supporting actor). I think he'll get in, but just barely and he won't win.

Final Prediction: He's out of my roster but I'm not calling him out of the race just yet, especially since he could still squeeze in in the supporting category.

7. David Oyelowo- Selma
Formerly #6

Spoiler alert: Martin Luther King Jr. is a real person. Oyelowo is following this trend of playing a real person and the academy does love biopics. Selma's critical acclaim has helped although Oyelowo was snubbed by the SAG awards leaving his fate slightly in the air.

January 9 Update: Selma's controversy might end up being too much at this point. It's been ignored by SAG and BAFTA and more attention has been focused on the alleged historical inaccuracies rather than the quality of the movie itself.

8. Bradley Cooper- American Sniper
Formerly #11

Cooper's performance (as real-life Navy seal Chris Kyle) in American Sniper has been praised by most critics, Vanity Fair even called it "a performance for the ages". But the award shows don't seem to agree.

Final Prediction: Tough to say. American Sniper has suddenly become the target (haha) of much hype but Bradley Cooper only has 2 nominations at any notable award shows, one being the Phoenix Film Critics Society Awards and the other being the Critic's choice awards (but it was Best actor in an ACTION movie, rather than just best actor). He's suddenly on several people's final predictions list and while it's true that Maggie Gyllenhaal got an oscar nomination a few years back with only one other award nomination, I've never heard of a leading actor getting nominated for an oscar with virtually no other nominations...except Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby. Who knows?

9. Timothy Spall- Mr. Turner
Formerly #8

Spall has received rave reviews for as REAL LIFE artist J.M.W. Turner in Mr. Turner. He even was invited to the Oscar roundtable. That said, most people in America haven't seen Mr. Turner and he's been ignored by the Golden Globes, SAG, and Critic's Choice among others. He's still likely to be a BAFTA nominee and there's a small chance he could be an upset nomination this year.

10. Oscar Issac- A Most Violent Year
Formerly #9

Oscar Issac is quickly growing into a strong leading man, following up his golden globe nominated performance Inside Llewyn Davis with A Most Violent Year. However, in spite of its acclaim, Issac has been ignored by most award shows in favor of Jessica Chastain.

11. Miles Teller- Whiplash
Formerly #10

Teller is another slowly rising star but his performance in Whiplash has been completely overshadowed by J.K. Simmons.

12. Joaquin Phoenix- Inherent Vice

These last 3 years have been good for Joaquin Phoenix with Inherent Vice following his acclaim in The Master and Her. Paul Thomas Anderson already scored him a nomination once for The Master but it seems Inherent Vice is probably a bit too divisive among critics to do it again.

13. Jack O'Connell- Unbroken

When I first heard about Unbroken, I figured Jack O'Connell would be an Oscar contender. But the film's reviews have been mixed and nobody is even talking about him so it's doubtful. The Academy do like films that fit Oscar bait to a T, though and he is playing a real person.

14. Bill Murray- St. Vincent

A lot of people have called St. Vincent one of his best performances in years and many feel he should have won 11 years ago for Lost In Translation (his only nomination). The Golden globe nomination helps but not that much.

15. Ben Affleck- Gone Girl

I'm really disappointed that Ben Affleck isn't a major contender. His performance in Gone Girl is the best of his career. But nobody cares. Rosamund Pike is the only person getting notice.

16. Mark Wahlberg- The Gambler

Mark Wahlberg lost weight for this movie. That's something.

17. Matthew McConaughey- Interstellar
Fresh off his win last year for Dallas Buyers Club, Matthew McConaughey gave a lot of feels in a very feelsy movie. But it's also a Nolan movie. How many actors has Nolan gotten an Oscar nomination for? One and that was Heath Ledger.

18. Channing Tatum- Foxcatcher

Tatum gave what many are calling the best performance of his career in Foxcatcher (indeed he called it his most challenging role to date). But the decision to have him compete in the Best Actor category, against his co-star Carrell, will ultimately be damaging for him.

19. Tom Hardy- Locke/The Drop

Tom Hardy gave two amazing performances this year that have been quickly forgotten. Just saying.

20. Jeremy Renner- Kill The Messenger

I thought Kill The Messenger would be a big hit but it came and went and nobody saw it. Just throwing it here for completion's sake.

Best Director

1. Richard Linklater- Boyhood
With it's 98% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and a Golden Globe win among other awards, Linklater is clearly the frontrunner at the moment.

2. Alejandro González Iñárritu- Birdman

Birdman is one of the most acclaimed films of the year and similar to Inarritu's praise is similar to Alfonso Cuaron's praise for his direction in Gravity. Both specialize in long takes but Inarritu takes it to the next level by giving it the illusion of being a single shot. It's very ambitious and the Academy admired that last year so this year shouldn't be different.

3. Wes Anderson- Grand Budapest Hotel

Formerly #4
Thanks to his film winning the best picture (comedy or musical) golden globe and a DGA nomination along with a Golden Globe and BAFTA nom, Anderson is basically a lock at this point.

4. Morten Tyldum- The Imitation Game
Formerly #6
A Norwegian director making his English language debut

5. Clint Eastwood- American Sniper

Formerly #6
His DGA nomination, along with the film's PGA nomination and general hype makes him an emerging contender

Final Prediction: Whether he deserves it or not, the film has suddenly built up a lot of momentum and he's a past Oscar darling.

6. James Marsh- The Theory of Everything

Formerly #5

7. David Fincher- Gone Girl
Formerly #5

The golden globe nomination helped and he 100% deserves it in my opinion, but the snub by the DGA isn't doing him any favors.

8. Ava Duvernay- Selma
Formerly #7
January 11 Update: Selma's hype has been greatly hampered by the controversy regarding the film's historical accuracy. I still believe the film could get a best Picture nominee, but it's no longer a frontrunner.

January 13th Update: And no DGA nomination either. We'll see.

9. Bennett Miller- Foxcatcher

Formerly #8
Bennett Miller's 2 previous films got Best Picture nominations and he got a best director nomination for Capote. While I feel that Foxcatcher is his best film to date and could squeeze in a Best Picture nomination, his directing has been largely overlooked by award groups

10. Damien Chazzelle- Whiplash
Formerly #9
A potential wunderkind in the making, Chazzelle won't be getting any directing nominations for Whiplash, but this film has clearly put him on the map and can't wait to see what he does next.