Wednesday, July 12, 2017

2017 Emmy Nominations and Picks: Drama Category

The 69th Primetime Emmys will be announced tomorrow and there's no shortage of potential contenders. The following are ranked in order of likeliness of a nomination, not my personal preference. My personal preferences will be clearly listed as "My Picks" to avoid confusion. In addition, a "2% rule" has been adopted in the comedy and drama series categories, wherein, a seventh nominee could be added to the respective categories if its total first-round votes are within 2% of the sixth place series. As a result, I'm including a 7th choice with my picks.


Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
1. John Lithgow- The Crown
The very versatile John Lithgow has already scored numerous awards and nominations for his performance as Winston Churchill in The Crown. No reason to assume the Emmys will be any different.


2. Jonathan Banks- Better Call Saul
He's already scored three nominations for his performance as Mike (once for Breaking Bad and twice for Better Call Saul) and the continued acclaim of the series should work in his favor. Not to mention the fact he should've won for his work in the episode "Five-O" two years ago.


3. Michael McKean- Better Call Saul
I actually think McKean deserves a nomination more than Banks this year and I'll be really bummed if he doesn't get in, but hopefully the hype of the series will get McKean the recognition he deserves.


4. Michael Kelly- House of Cards
This would be Kelly's third nomination in a row. He still got nominated last season even when his character didn't really do anything so considering that this season his character actually does a lot makes me think he should be able to get in.


5. Ron Cephas Jones- This is Us
Character actor Ron Cephas Jones is arguably the best part of This is Us, bringing a lot of emotion to his character without relying on theatrics.


6. Jeffrey Wright- Westworld
Wright's performance in Westworld is usually cited as one of the highlights and with no other major contenders from the show's big ensemble in this category (Anthony Hopkins is going leading) and the show's general hype, makes me think Wright could make it in.


7. Jon Voight- Ray Donovan
Voight was previously nominated for the first and third seasons of Ray Donovan and if it weren't for the new contenders of Lithgow, Cephas Jones, and Wright, I'd say he's a safe bet. He's still a definite possibility, but I wouldn't call him a lock.


8. Noah Emmerich- The Americans
The very underrated Noah Emmerich has been ignored by the Emmys for 4 years. But maybe since the Emmys finally started to give The Americans major recognition last year, they'll give some belated notice to Noah Emmerich.


9. Rupert Friend- Homeland
I'm not sure if I'd call Rupert Friend my favorite part of Homeland but he was my favorite part of season 6 of Homeland.


10. Christopher Eccleston- The Leftovers
In an ideal world, Eccleston would be the frontrunner. He's incredible and deserves to win. The Leftovers has only been snubbed, but maybe it'll be like The Americans and suddenly get a lot of recognition. Maybe. 


11. Scott Glenn- The Leftovers
Longtime character actor Scott Glenn gives what I think is his best performance ever in The Leftovers. Of course, he should've already been nominated in the guest category before but I suppose it's not too late to make up for it.


12. Kevin Carroll- The Leftovers
An actor who came out of nowhere and blew me away on The Leftovers. He has less to do in season 3 in comparison to season 2 but still brings some solid moments.


13. Eddie Marsan- Ray Donovan
Marsan deserves a nomination more than Jon Voight in my opinion. He's the best part of Ray Donovan and will likely be snubbed once more.


14. Christian Slater- Mr. Robot
He scored a Golden globe win for season 1 but didn't get an Emmy nomination. Could season 2 (which most seem to agree is inferior to season 1) make up for that? Small chance.


15. Mandy Patinkin- Homeland
Patinkin hasn't been nominated for Homeland since season 3, but hey, there might be a chance.


16. Hugh Dancy- The Path
A pretty great performance for a show that's sophomore season was unfortunately a fair bit weaker than it's first season, so we'll see.


17. Clayne Crawford- Rectify
He's on Lethal Weapon now, but Crawford will be remembered for his fantastic work on Rectify (for the very small audience who actually watched it)

My Picks:
Jonathan Banks- Better Call Saul (7th place)
Ron Cephas Jones- This Is Us
Christopher Eccleston- The Leftovers (winner)
Noah Emmerich- The Americans
Scott Glenn- The Leftovers
Michael McKean- Better Call Saul
Jeffrey Wright- Westworld

Note: I have not seen The Crown and I'm sure John Lithgow deserves it but I'm not putting someone I haven't seen in my personal picks

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
With 4 of the 6 nominees from last year no longer eligible and the remaining two (Maura Tierney in The Affair and Constance Zimmer in UnREAL) barely in the conversation, this category seems like open season and could get a bunch of actresses for their first season.

1. Thandie Newton- Westworld
She's fresh off a Golden globe nomination and praised by many as the best part of the show. Safe bet.


2. Millie Bobby Brown- Stranger Things
At 13, Millie Bobby Brown will easily be one of the youngest Emmy nominees (if not ever) and it'll be completely deserved.


3. Vanessa Kirby- The Crown
Haven't seen it, but supposedly she's great.


4. Chrissy Metz- This is Us
Another actress who came out of nowhere, but she's been praised left and right for her performance and she has a Golden Globe nomination to boot.


5. Winona Ryder- Stranger Things
Winona Ryder's performance was a little bit divisive but with the SAG and Golden globe nominations, the love clearly outnumbers the hate.


6. Uzo Aduba- Orange is the New Black
The only nominee I'm predicting who isn't in her debut season. Uzo Adbua has won twice and although she wasn't nominated last year, I think season 4 (the season eligible this year even though 5 has already aired) will be a different story.


7. Margo Martindale- The Americans
Repeatedly nominated in the guest category, but due to new Emmy rules, she's been in too many episodes this season to qualify as a guest actress. Still, with the increased love for The Americans last year, I'm hoping there's a chance.

8. Rhea Seehorn- Better Call Saul
Initially just a supporting character, Rhea Seehorn is now arguably the tritagonist of the series and her performance gets better with every season.

9. Amy Brenneman- The Leftovers
A brilliant performance that should be nominated but probably won't.


10. Abigail Spencer- Rectify
See above.

11. Samira Wiley, Natasha Lyonne, Kate Mulgrew- Orange is the New Black
Aduba is just one small part of Orange is the New Black's fantastic ensemble, but there's definitely a risk of them cancelling each other out.


12. Holly Taylor- The Americans
She's one of the best young actresses in the business. Many tv shows have scenes with the protagonists' child be a chore to watch but Holly Taylor's performance makes her scenes some of the most interesting.

13. Maggie Siff- Billions
A strong part of Billions and an underrated actress in general.


14. Ruth Negga- Preacher
Fresh off an Oscar nomination for Loving, Negga seems less likely to get a nomination for Preacher since it's a comic book adaptation even though she'd be very deserving.


15. Aubrey Plaza- Legion
Plaza would similarly be very deserving for her work on Legion but has the same obstacle Negga is facing.


16. Carly Chaikin- Mr. Robot
Even if season 2 of Mr. Robot was inferior to the first, I thought Chaikin's performance really stepped things up. Still unlikely to get much notice but I think she deserves a shout out.

My Picks:
Amy Brenneman- The Leftovers (Winner)
Millie Bobbie Brown- Stranger Things
Thandie Newton- Westworld
Aubrey Plaza- Legion
Rhea Seehorn- Better Call Saul
Winona Ryder- Stranger Things (7th Place)
Holly Taylor- The Americans

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Unlike Outstanding Supporting Actress, every actor nominated for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series last year is eligible again. That said, with a few new contenders, I don't expect a 6/6 repeat of last year.
1. Matthew Rhys- The Americans
Matthew Rhys finally got a very belated nomination for The Americans last year after four seasons. And the hype hasn't died down since so here's hoping that he can score a win this year.


2. Kevin Spacey- House of Cards
Spacey has been nominated for House of Cards four times in a row. The fifth season has received the lowest reviews of any season to date, but I think Spacey's performance is still loved enough to get him nominated again (and he may have an overdue factor)


3. Bob Odenkirk- Better Call Saul
Just when I thought I couldn't love his performance anymore, a little episode called Chicanery aired. I truly hope that he wins and I think he's a contender.

4. Sterling K. Brown- This is Us
Sterling K. Brown received wide recognition last season for his performance as Christopher Darden in American Crime Story, including an Emmy win. He's since received further acclaim for his performance in This is Us, which has quickly become one of NBC's most talked about shows.


5. Rami Malek- Mr. Robot
Malek won last year and while he might not win again, his performance remains top-notch and will hopefully lead to another nomination.


6. Anthony Hopkins- Westworld
Academy Award Winner Anthony Hopkins came to TV in a big way in Westworld. It's become a very popular show and with an actor with a stature like Hopkins, he could definitely get the attention of the Emmy voters.

7. Liev Schreiber- Ray Donovan
Liev Schreiber has been nominated twice in a row for Ray Donovan with the big question being whether or not new contenders like Hopkins and Brown will boot him out.

8. Justin Theroux- The Leftovers
A very underrated actor. I'd argue he's a bigger contender this year than in the past and in an ideal world would be a lock for a nomination. I'm not going to get my hopes up, but a nomination would be very deserved.


9. Aden Young- Rectify
Rectify finished this year so this is Young's last chance to get the Emmy nomination he's deserved year after year. And he probably won't get it, sadly.

10. Billy Bob Thorton- Goliath
I haven't seen Goliath, but Thorton's Golden Globe win has to count for something.

11. Freddie Highmore- Bates Motel
Like Rectify, Bates Motel finished this year. Highmore has played Norman Bates to perfection and I'd love to see him finally get a nomination, as doubtful as that seems.

12. Dan Stevens- Legion
Stevens brought a lot of depth (and a convincing American accent) to his performance in Legion, but I'm not sure if that'll be enough.

13. Kyle Chandler- Bloodline
Chandler got nominated for season 1 of Bloodline when it got positive reviews and got nominated again for season 2 when it got mixed reviews. But the newest season has gotten generally negative reviews. I feel he might be done but he surprised me last season.


14. Paul Giamatti and Damian Lewis- Billions
These two play off of each other so well that either would be a deserving nomination. Of course, their co-lead status continues to create the risk of them cancelling each other out.

15. Wagner Moura- Narcos
Season 2 of Narcos was even better than season 1 (which I enjoyed a lot) and Wagner Moura's performance as Pablo Escobar is largely responsible for that. It's hard for me to imagine the Emmys recognizing a performance almost 100% in Spanish, but anything is possible.


16. Milo Ventimiglia- This is Us
He's going as lead with his co-star Sterling K. Brown but Brown has received so much more attention that he's unlikely to get a nod. Still a small chance. On the bright side, at least they won't cancel each other out.

17. Ian McShane- American Gods
Ian McShane (Deadwood) is back on television and still as charismatic and entertaining as ever. American Gods has also received a lot of attention from TV outlets, but I don't know how a show like this would resonate with voters.

My Picks:
Freddie Highmore- Bates Motel
Anthony Hopkins- Westworld (7th place)
Rami Malek- Mr. Robot
Bob Odenkirk- Better Call Saul (Winner)
Matthew Rhys- The Americans
Justin Theroux- The Leftovers
Aden Young- Rectify


Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Last year Tatiana Maslany won for her work in Orphan Black, but due to the late premiere of the show's fifth season, she won't be eligible until next year, leaving a lot of possibilities for this year.
1. Claire Foy- The Crown
She's got a Golden Globe and SAG win. We know what's coming next.

2. Elisabeth Moss- The Handmaid's Tale
For some reason, Elisabeth Moss never won for her amazing work on Mad Men. And her performance on The Handmaid's Tale is just as good (if not better).

3. Keri Russell- The Americans
Like her co-star, Matthew Rhys, she received an overdue nomination last season and will likely follow up again this year.

4. Claire Danes- Homeland
Danes has received five nominations in a row for Homeland (winning the first two times). I don't see any reason for this to change.

5. Viola Davis- How to Get Away with Murder
Davis is off of two nominations in a row, winning once. Like Danes, I don't see any reason for this to change.


6. Robin Wright- House of Cards
She's received four nominations in a row and the only reason that might change is the show's more mixed reviews this season. But her performance remains strong enough that I think she should still get in. 


7. Evan Rachel Wood- Westworld
With a Golden Globe nomination and being the first billed on a highly acclaimed new series, Evan Rachel Wood seems like a decent bet.


8. Taraji P. Henson- Empire
While Henson has been nominated twice in a row for Empire, this one seems more likely to change. The ratings are still high but the show doesn't seem to be as talked about, especially when looking at new shows like Westworld, The Handmaid's Tale, and The Crown.

9. Carrie Coon- The Leftovers
She's my win. That's all.

10. Mandy Moore- This is Us
Right when it seemed her career was done, Mandy Moore came back big in This is Us. And if it weren't for so many other new contenders, I'd say she had a decent chance. 


11. Shiri Appleby- UnReal
A show I haven't seen but apparently she's good so...

12. Kerry Washington- Scandal
Okay, she hasn't actually received a nomination for Scandal since 2014, so maybe it's not that likely, but that's why she's ranked #12. 


13. Christine Baranski- The Good Fight
The Good Fight, like its predecessor, The Good Wife, has been critically acclaimed but the decision to put it onto CBS' online streaming service instead of just airing it online may not help Baranski get a nomination.

My Picks:
Carrie Coon- The Leftovers (winner)
Claire Danes- Homeland
Claire Foy- The Crown (seventh place)
Elisabeth Moss- The Handmaid's Tale
Keri Russell- The Americans
Evan Rachel Wood- Westworld
Robin Wright- House of Cards

Note: I know I'm breaking my own rule by including Foy but otherwise I'd only have six slots (I personally wouldn't nominate Moore or Henson) so I'm going to take everyone else's word for it that Foy is deserving. The Crown is on my watchlist, I promise.


Outstanding Drama Series
1. The Americans
2. Better Call Saul
3. The Crown
4. The Handmaid's Tale
5. Stranger Things
6. Westworld
7. House of Cards
8. This is Us
9. The Leftovers
10. Homeland
11. Rectify
12. Mr. Robot
13. Billions
14. Orange is the New Black
15. Ray Donovan

My Picks:
The Americans
Better Call Saul
The Handmaid's Tale
The Leftovers (Winner)
Orange is the New Black
Rectify
Stranger Things (7th Place)

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