So the Academy Awards are tonight so here are my final predictions. These are ranked in terms of likelihood of winning, not my personal rankings.
Best Actor
1. Casey Affleck- Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington- Fences
3. Ryan Gosling- La La Land
4. Andrew Garfield- Hacksaw Ridge
5. Viggo Mortensen- Captain Fantastic
Casey Affleck has been largely sweeping here, but he's not a 100% lock. His sexual harassment allegations from 2009 have been brought back into the spotlight due to his increased Oscar attention. How much this will affect voters is unclear.
In addition, Denzel Washington surprised everyone by winning the SAG award. To put this into perspective, it's been 13 years since someone won the SAG lead actor award and didn't win the Best Actor Oscar. That said, trends do get broken. Last year, The Big Short was the first film in a decade to win the PGA award but not win Best Picture. 2 years ago, Birdman was the first film in over 30 years to win Best Picture without a Best Editing nomination. So I think Affleck will break the SAG trend. Denzel Washington has already won 2 Oscars and Manchester by the Sea got more Oscar love than Fences (6 nominations including Director vs. 4 nominations). Gosling is in the Best Picture frontrunner, but I really don't think it'll go for him and Andrew Garfield and Viggo Mortensen should be happy just to be nominated.
Casey Affleck has been largely sweeping here, but he's not a 100% lock. His sexual harassment allegations from 2009 have been brought back into the spotlight due to his increased Oscar attention. How much this will affect voters is unclear.
In addition, Denzel Washington surprised everyone by winning the SAG award. To put this into perspective, it's been 13 years since someone won the SAG lead actor award and didn't win the Best Actor Oscar. That said, trends do get broken. Last year, The Big Short was the first film in a decade to win the PGA award but not win Best Picture. 2 years ago, Birdman was the first film in over 30 years to win Best Picture without a Best Editing nomination. So I think Affleck will break the SAG trend. Denzel Washington has already won 2 Oscars and Manchester by the Sea got more Oscar love than Fences (6 nominations including Director vs. 4 nominations). Gosling is in the Best Picture frontrunner, but I really don't think it'll go for him and Andrew Garfield and Viggo Mortensen should be happy just to be nominated.
Best Actress
1. Emma Stone- La La Land
2. Isabelle Huppert- Elle
3. Natalie Portman- Jackie
4. Meryl Streep- Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Ruth Negga- Loving
Ruth Negga should be honored just to be nominated, Meryl Streep will get nominated for anything, but she has to work a bit harder to actually win. Natalie Portman was once the frontrunner for Jackie, but since she lost the Golden Globe to Isabelle Huppert, that hype has largely died down (plus she won just 6 years ago, which may make voters hesitant to reward her again so quickly). It's between Emma Stone and Isabelle Huppert. Isabelle Huppert was somewhat I once didn't even predict to be nominated but she's increased her hype since her Golden Globe win and even beat out Natalie Portman for a Spirit award last night (Emma Stone wasn't eligible). Still, I'm giving the edge to Stone. She's in the Best Picture frontrunner, she won SAG, she's more popular in the U.S.
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali- Moonlight
2. Dev Patel- Lion
3. Lucas Hedges- Manchester by the Sea
4. Jeff Bridges- Hell or High Water
5. Michael Shannon- Nocturnal Animals
Michael Shannon's nomination was shocking, beating out his co-star Aaron Taylor-Johnson who won a Golden Globe for his performance. But that's good news for Mahershala Ali, since one of his biggest threats for the Oscar wasn't even nominated. The closest person to beating Ali would be Dev Patel in Lion, who won the BAFTA for his performance. However, I think the passion for Moonlight is enough that Ali should still be the winner.
Best Supporting Actress
1. Viola Davis- Fences
2. Michelle Williams- Manchester by the Sea
3. Naomie Harris- Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman- Lion
5. Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures
The safest bet of the acting nominees. Viola Davis is sweeping everywhere. Michelle Williams has the tiniest chance, but I doubt it. She's 16 years younger than Davis. I'm sure Academy voters realize she'll have more opportunities. The other 3 definitely aren't winning.
Best Original Screenplay
1. La La Land (Damian Chazelle)
2. Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
3. Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)
4. The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou)
5. 20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
First off, this is a pretty fantastic category, but this isn't about my opinion. La La Land is winning. It'd be really shocking if it didn't.
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Moonlight (Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney)
2. Arrival (Eric Heisserer)
3. Fences (August Wilson)
4. Lion (Luke Davies)
5. Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi)
Moonlight attempted to run as an Original Screenplay, but its category submission was rejected by the Academy since it was based on an unpublished play. However, this was a blessing in disguise as Moonlight has no real serious competition in this category. Moonlight may not be winning Best Picture and Director, but the Academy will wanna reward Barry Jenkins with something.
Best Director
1. Damien Chazelle- La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins- Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villenueve- Arrival
5. Mel Gibson- Hacksaw Ridge
It's between Chazelle and Jenkins, interestingly enough both directors under 40 (rare for the Academy). Either would be a worthy winner in my opinion, but I think it's going to Chazelle. The direction of the opening scene alone is pretty spectacular and the Academy and numerous award circles have embraced La La Land more than any other film.
It's between Chazelle and Jenkins, interestingly enough both directors under 40 (rare for the Academy). Either would be a worthy winner in my opinion, but I think it's going to Chazelle. The direction of the opening scene alone is pretty spectacular and the Academy and numerous award circles have embraced La La Land more than any other film.
Best Picture
1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Hidden Figures
5. Arrival
5. Arrival
6. Hacksaw Ridge
7. Lion
8. Hell or High Water
9. Fences
Best Picture and Best Director tend to go hand in hand and I don't think this'll be an exception. Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea are the only possible spoilers. All of the others should be happy they were nominated, although Hidden Figures surprise SAG outstanding cast win was interesting. I talked about SAG trends early with the Best Actor category and it'll be worth mentioning here. It's been 21 years since a film won Best Picture without getting a SAG outstanding cast nomination (Braveheart). So this would be a major trend breaker. Of course, La LA Land isn't even close to an ensemble, with Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling being the only 2 without more than 10 minutes of screentime so it's not surprising it wasn't recognized by SAG. So I still think La La Land is a safe bet.
Other Predictions (without rankings)
Best Animated Feature: Zootopia
Best Cinematography: La La Land
Best Costume Design: Jackie
Best Editing: La La Land
Best Original Score: La La Land
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Best Production Design: Arrival
Best Original Song: La La Land (City of Stars)
Best Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Sound Mixing: La La Land
Best Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
Best Documentary Feature: O.J.: Made in America
Best Foreign Language Film: Toni Erdmann
Best Animated Short: Piper
Best Documentary Short: White Helmets
Best Live Action Short: Ennemis Interieurs
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