Oscar nominations: my reactions

So the Oscar nominations were announced and they were...alright. Silence's snubs were obviously enraging, but I can't say it's terribly surprising which makes it easier to stomach. Besides that...well there have been worse years.

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis- Fences

Naomie Harris- Moonlight

Nicole Kidman- Lion


Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams- Manchester by the Sea

Predictions correct: 5/5

Snubs and Surprises: None. This was predictable.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali- Moonlight

Jeff Bridges- Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges- Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel- Lion


Michael Shannon- Nocturnal Animals

Predictions correct: 3/5

Snubs and Surprises: Wow, poor Hugh Grant. Sure did seem like he campaigned hard for a nomination. Meanwhile Aaron Taylor Johnson is the first person in over 40 years to win the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor and not even be nominated for the Oscar.  I wasn't predicting Hedges but he was always a contender. The real surprise is Michael Shannon. Following Revolutionary Road, this is his second nomination. Both films had him as surprise nominees with little precursor support who ultimately got in over a co-star who was viewed as more of a contender and won a Golden Globe for their work. I guess the message is don't underestimate Michael Shannon.

Best Actor

Casey Affleck- Manchester By The Sea

Andrew Garfield- Hacksaw Ridge.

Ryan Gosling- La La Land

Viggo Mortensen- Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington- Fences

Predictions Correct: 5/5

Snubs and Surprises: None. Joel Edgerton was the only other noteworthy contender, but I figured his hype had died down enough that these 5 were pretty safe bets. I personally think Andrew Garfield was better in Silence than Hacksaw Ridge, but he's been a likely contender in Hacksaw Ridge for awhile now.

Best Actress

Isabelle Huppert- Elle

Ruth Negga- Loving

Natalie Portman- Jackie

Emma Stone- La La Land

Meryl Streep- Florence Foster Jenkins

Predictions Correct: 4/5

Snubs and Surprises: Amy Adams for Arrival seemed pretty safe and indeed the Academy did take to the film, as it scored a Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay nomination. Genuinely shocking that a film so loved by the Academy would leave out the performance that drove the film. I didn't even have Ruth Negga as a possible spoiler for my predictions. The Best Actress category just seemed too crowded for her to squeeze in, but it is a deserved nomination so congratulations.

Best Picture

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Predictions Correct: 9/9

Snubs and Surprises: Woah. I seriously didn't expect to get this 100%. Best Picture is super hard to predict since it's between 5 and 10 movies, so even to predict 9 nominations was quite a risk. The biggest snub is obviously Scorcese's Silence, though it's not particularly surprising that it didn't get in.

Best Director

Damien Chazelle- La La Land

Mel Gibson- Hacksaw Ridge

Barry Jenkins- Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the Sea

Denis Villeneuve- Arrival

Predictions Correct: 4/5

Snubs and Surprises: So Mel Gibson is officially back, huh? I knew he was a contender, but honestly I guess I just underestimated him. I figured Scorcese or Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals) had a better shot. Still bummed about Scorcese. He would've been so deserving.

Best Original Screenplay
20th Century Women

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

Predictions Correct: 4/5

Snubs and Surprises: I put 20th Century Women as a possible spoiler, but I didn't expect it to actually get in. Very well-deserved. Too bad about Captain Fantastic but I wasn't 100% convinced about it anyways. Not too surprising here.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival

Fences

Hidden Figures

Lion

Moonlight

Predictions Correct: 4/5

Snubs and Surprises: No real surprises. I predicted Nocturnal Animals but I ranked it #5 on likelihood and Hidden Figures was my spoiler pick. 

Total Predictions Correct: 38/44 nominations.

Other Nominations I didn't predict

Cinematography:

Arrival- Bradford Young

La La Land- Linus Sandgren

Lion- Greig Fraser

Moonlight- James Laxton

Silence- Rodrigo Prieto

Best documentary feature:

13th- Ava DuVernay, Spencer Averick and Howard Barish

Fire at Sea- Gianfranco Rosi and Donatella Palermo

I Am Not Your Negro- Raoul Peck, Remi Grellety and Hebert Peck

Life, Animated- Roger Ross Williams and Julie Goldman

O.J.: Made in America- Ezra Edelman and Caroline Waterlow

Best documentary short subject:

“4.1 Miles,” Daphne Matziaraki

“Extremis,” Dan Krauss

“Joe’s Violin,” Kahane Cooperman and Raphaela Neihausen

“Watani: My Homeland,” Marcel Mettelsiefen and Stephen Ellis

“The White Helmets,” Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara

Best live action short film:

“Ennemis Interieurs,” Selim Azzazi

“La Femme et le TGV,” Timo von Gunten and Giacun Caduff

“Silent Nights,” Aske Bang and Kim Magnusson

“Sing,” Kristof Deak and Anna Udvardy

“Timecode,” Juanjo Gimenez

Best foreign language film:

“A Man Called Ove,” Sweden

“Land of Mine,” Denmark

“Tanna,” Australia

“The Salesman,” Iran

“Toni Erdmann,” Germany

Film editing:

Arrival- Joe Walker

Hacksaw Ridge- John Gilbert

Hell or High Water- Jake Roberts

La La Land- Tom Cross

Moonlight- Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon

Sound editing:

Arrival- Sylvain Bellemare

Deepwater Horizon- Wylie Stateman and Renee Tondelli

Hacksaw Ridge- Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright

La La Land- Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan

Sully- Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman

Sound mixing:

Arrival- Bernard Gariepy Strobl and Claude La Haye

Hacksaw Ridge- Kevin O’Connell, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie and Peter Grace

La La Land- Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee and Steve A. Morrow

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story- David Parker, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi- Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Mac Ruth

Production design:

Arrival- Patrice Vermette, Paul Hotte

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them- Stuart Craig, Anna Pinnock

Hail, Caesar!- Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh

La La Land- David Wasco, Sandy Reynolds-Wasco

Passengers- Guy Hendrix Dyas, Gene Serdena

Original score:

Jackie-Mica Levi

La La Land- Justin Hurwitz

Lion- Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka

Moonlight- Nicholas Britell

Passengers- Thomas Newman

Original song:

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land — Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls — Music and Lyric by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin and Karl Johan Schuster

“City of Stars,” La La Land — Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story — Music and Lyric by J. Ralph and Sting

“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana — Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda

Makeup and hair:

A Man Called Ove- Eva von Bahr and Love Larson

Star Trek Beyond- Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo

Suicide Squad- Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini and Christopher Nelson

Costume design:

Allied- Joanna Johnston

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them- Colleen Atwood

Florence Foster Jenkins- Consolata Boyle

Jackie-Madeline Fontaine

La La Land- Mary Zophres

Visual effects:

Deepwater Horizon,” Craig Hammack, Jason Snell, Jason Billington and Burt Dalton

Doctor Strange- Stephane Ceretti, Richard Bluff, Vincent Cirelli and Paul Corbould

The Jungle Book- Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Dan Lemmon

Kubo and the Two Strings- Steve Emerson, Oliver Jones, Brian McLean and Brad Schiff

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story- John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel and Neil Corbould

Films with Multiple Nominations:

14 nominations- La La Land

8 nominations- Arrival, Moonlight

6 nominations- Hacksaw Ridge, Lion, Manchester by the Sea

4 nominations- Fences, Hell or High Water

3 nominations- Hidden Figures, Jackie

2 nominations- Deepwater Horizon, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Kubo and the Two Strings, A Man Called Ove, Moana, Passengers, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Final Oscar Predictions

Okay here we go one more time. Final predictions for the big 8 categories. Should be interesting. Let's see what happens. I'll probably be wrong on some of these. I hope I'm wrong on some of these. I'll probably be raging tomorrow morning when someone I love gets snubbed. Not gonna go into great detail over this, because I've already got that covered earlier, so look at my previous posts for more in-depth analysis.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali- Moonlight

2. Jeff Bridges- Hell or High Water

3. Hugh Grant- Florence Foster Jenkins

4. Dev Patel- Lion


5. Aaron Taylor-Johnson- Nocturnal Animals

Spoiler: Lucas Hedges- Manchester by the Sea

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis- Fences

2. Michelle Williams- Manchester by the Sea

3. Naomie Harris- Moonlight

4. Nicole Kidman- Lion


5. Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures

Possible Spoiler: None

Best Actor

1. Casey Affleck- Manchester By The Sea

2. Denzel Washington- Fences

3. Ryan Gosling- La La Land

4. Andrew Garfield- Hacksaw Ridge.

5. Viggo Mortensen- Captain Fantastic

Spoiler: Joel Edgerton- Loving

Best Actress

1. Emma Stone- La La Land

2. Natalie Portman- Jackie

3. Meryl Streep- Florence Foster Jenkins

4. Amy Adams- Arrival

5. Isabelle Huppert- Elle

Spoiler: Emily Blunt- Girl on the Train, Annette Bening- 20th Century Women

Best Picture

1. La La Land

2. Moonlight

3. Manchester by the Sea

4. Arrival

5. Lion

6. Hell or High Water

7. Fences

8. Hidden Figures

9. Hacksaw Ridge

Possible Spoiler: Silence

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle- La La Land

2. Barry Jenkins- Moonlight

3. Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the Sea

4. Denis Villeneuve- Arrival

5. Martin Scorcese- Silence

Possible Spoiler: Tom Ford- Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Screenplay
1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Hell or High Water
4. Captain Fantastic
5. The Lobster

Possible Spoiler: 20th Century Women

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. Fences
4. Lion
5. Nocturnal Animals

Possible Spoiler: Hidden Figures

2017 Updated Oscar Predictions

Best Actor
It's been a weak year for Best Actor, with only 6 major contenders (Affleck, Washington, Gosling, Garfield, Mortensen, and Edgerton) vying for the 5 slots. I leave open the small possibility of a dark horse upset, although this feels unlikely.

The Actual Contenders

1. Casey Affleck- Manchester By The Sea

Affleck has received rave reviews for Manchester by The Sea and the film has received acclaim since its premiere at Sundance that doesn't seem to be dropping. He's a safe bet for a nomination and at this point seems like a potential winner.

2. Denzel Washington- Fences

Denzel Washington reprises his Tony-winning role in the film adaptation of Fences. The simple fact that he won a Tony for playing this character on broadway makes it obvious that he's a serious contender.

3. Ryan Gosling- La La Land

Ryan Gosling could receive his first nomination since Half Nelson 10 years ago. La La Land has received praise as one of the best films of the year with Gosling's performance cited as one of the highlights.

4. Andrew Garfield- Hacksaw Ridge
(Formerly Ranked #6)

The Andrew Garfield film people have seen and praised. The only concern is if his Hacksaw Ridge and Silence performances cancel each other out (an actor can only be nominated once in a category).

5. Viggo Mortensen- Captain Fantastic
(formerly ranked #7)

Captain Fantastic has been called one of the best indies of the year with Mortensen at the center of the praise. However, it's still a very small indie, so it'll need a good amount of buzz to score him a nomination.

6. Joel Edgerton- Loving
(formerly ranked #4)

Edgerton stars as Richard Loving, one-half of the interracial couple that challenged states miscegenation laws. While his performance has been praised, it's also been called quiet and subtle. Whether or not it'll be too subtle for the Academy remains to be seen.
Update: In spite of a Golden Globe nomination, Loving has otherwise underperformed. However, this is an unusually weak year for Best Actor so he may be able to squeeze in still.

Dark Horses

7. Andrew Garfield- Silence
(formerly ranked #5)

This is a gambit call since Silence still hasn't been screened to the vast majority of people and there's no real word on his performance yet. Regardless, his leading presence in a Martin Scorcese film makes me suspect he'll bring a lot.
Update: Silence has been snubbed left and right by Awards Shows with all of Garfield's acclaim going towards Hacksaw Ridge.

8. Tom Hanks- Sully
(formerly ranked #7)
Hanks received some of his biggest praise since Captain Phillips (where he was snubbed at the Oscars). Along with having Clint Eastwood as the director, who is adored by the Academy, I may be underestimating Hanks by putting him at #7.

Update: Sully has been almost completely ignored this awards season in contrast to Eastwood's last film, American Sniper, which got several guild awards before Cooper scored a nomination. Still, the Academy loves Clint Eastwood so I won't count it out.

9. Jake Gyllenhaal- Nocturnal Animals

Gyllenhaal scores another raved performance in Nocturnal Animals and like Nightcrawler and Prisoners before, it's become clear that the Academy has no interest in nominating Gyllenhaal for his performances in dark thrillers. Maybe this could be the exception, but probably not.
Update: Gyllenhaal received a BAFTA nomination, but BAFTAs are known for having at least one unusual nomination, so it probably means nothing.

Best Actress
Best Actress feels far more competitive than Best Actor with 4 probable locks and another 4 battling for that 5th slot, with one possible dark horse who could sneak in.

1. Emma Stone- La La Land
(formerly #3)

Stone winning isn't an impossibility for a win either with the amount of hype La La Land has built up.
Update: With Portman losing the Globe and La La Land sweeping, Stone's odds are increasing. We'll see how SAG goes.

2. Natalie Portman- Jackie

There are many reasons Natalie Portman may not win. She won just 6 years ago, the actresses listed below are still building hype etc. but for the time being, she's at #1. It's a raved performance. It's a biopic. It's a safe bet for a nomination.

Update: Still a lock for a nomination, but her surprise loss at the golden globes and lack of enthusiasm for the film in general may put her at a disadvantage.

3. Meryl Streep- Florence Foster Jenkins
(Formerly #5)

Meryl Streep feels like less of a lock than usual, but she's still Meryl Streep.

4. Amy Adams- Arrival
(Formerly #6)

Adams has already been nominated 5 times, which shows how much she's loved by the Academy, but could also make the Academy want to nominate people who haven't had the same amount of recognition. Hard to say, but Arrival's praise has largely centered around her performance.

Update: The last "lock" on the list. Adams feels less safe by nature of being in a sci-fi film, but the acclaim for Arrival, including a DGA nomination for Villenueve has made it clear that awards groups are really taking to the film.

5. Isabelle Huppert- Elle
(Formerly #8)

Elle is apparently an incredibly dark film. It's also not American. However, foreign-language performances have been nominated before and even won (see Marion Cotillard) and her performance is already receiving recognition from American award shows like the Spirit Awards and Satellite Awards.

Update: She surprised everyone when she won the Golden Globe for Best Actress-Drama, beating out frontrunner Portman, in spite of not being nominated at SAG. The nature of her film and competitive nature of the category still makes me question her chances, but nobody has ever won Best Actress-Drama at the Golden Globes and not been nominated at the Oscars. First time for everything, though.

6. Emily Blunt- The Girl on the Train
(Formerly #11)

The Girl on the Train received mixed reviews but Emily Blunt's performance was praised and an awards campaign has already began for her.

Update: Blunt came out of nowhere. She was completely ignored by various awards groups and then suddenly got both a SAG and BAFTA nomination. She's definitely a possibility now.

7. Ruth Negga- Loving
Formerly #4

Negga's performance for Loving, like Edgerton, has been praised but also subtle. So not quite a lock, but still a possibility.

Update: Like Edgerton, Negga has been mostly ignored in spite of a Golden Globe nod. Surprises happen, but I'm not convinced at this time.

8. Annette Bening- 20th Century Women
(Formerly #2)

Bening has a lot going for her. She's overdue for an Oscar with 4 nominations and zero wins, she already lost to Natalie Portman in 2010, and she has a performance that's been highly acclaimed. Only time will tell.
Update: This film came and fell quickly. She got a globe nomination, but it seems like 20th Century Women came out a bit too late.

Dark Horses

9. Taraji P. Henson- Hidden Figures
(Formerly #9)

Taraji P. Henson was last nominated in 2008 for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button before becoming better known on tv for shows like Person of Interest and Empire. But if Hidden Figures ends up being a hit with audiences, it could be a chance to recognize her again.
Update: Hidden Figures has become a huge commercial and critical success. While most of the awards are going towards co-star Octavia Spencer, Henson still has a small possibility of sneaking in.

Best Supporting Actor
The Actual Contenders

1. Mahershala Ali- Moonlight
(formerly #2)

Moonlight was an indie that rose higher than I think anyone could've imagined and Mahershala Ali's subtle but powerful performance was one of the highlights. While I do fear the performance may not be flashy enough for the Academy, it's not a crowded year for supporting actor (I'd call everyone after #11 a long shot), so I'm hoping the Academy will give him the recognition he deserves.

Update: Taylor-Johnson's win at the Golden Globes was a small blow, but unless he loses SAG (where Taylor-Johnson wasn't nominated), I still think Ali is the frontrunner.

2. Jeff Bridges- Hell or High Water
(formerly #4)

This one seems a bit unfair, because I definitely consider Jeff Bridges co-lead of the film (he's even billed first), but the film seems to be pushing him as supporting and if so, he seems like a decent bet to get in as the hype for Hell or High Water remains strong after many months.

3. Hugh Grant- Florence Foster Jenkins
(formerly #10)
I don't know. Streep sometimes carries her co-stars to a nomination

Update: Seems like a borderline lock at this point. People are really taking to his performance.

4. Dev Patel- Lion
(formerly #5)
Although the trailer makes him look like the lead, Patel apparently has less screentime than it looks as a large amount of the film centers on him as a child played by a younger actor. And this may for the best if Patel wants a shot at gettin a nomination.


5. Aaron Taylor-Johnson- Nocturnal Animals
Aaron Taylor-Johnson is someone whose past performances I've ranged from "solid" to "bad". Then he gave an absolutely amazing, chilling performance in Nocturnal Animals, which serves as a great reminder that an actor is often only as good as their script. I don't know if he's a contender, but he deserves to be one.
Update: Taylor-Johnson's surprise Golden Globe win and BAFTA nomination changes a lot. He's now a definite contender. It's been over 40 years since someone won the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor and not been nominated for an Oscar.


6. Lucas Hedges- Manchester by the Sea
(formerly #3)
The young Lucas Hedges seems to have given his breakout role in Manchester by the Sea, with many saying he's just as good in the film as Casey Affleck.

Update: Hedges isn't quite the lock he once seemed, but the love for the film in general means he's still a contender.

Dark Horses

7. Liam Neeson- Silence
(formerly #6)

While it's yet to be seen by many, Liam Neeson's performance in Silence is expected to be brief but with lots of depth and I truly hope it ends up being as good as we're hoping. For that reason, this prediction may be a longshot, but if the performance lives up to expectations, I think Neeson will have a good shot.

Update: Honestly who even knows with Silence at this point?

8. Issey Ogata- Silence

9. Adam Driver- Silence
Like Liam Neeson, Adam Driver's performance remains to be seen, but he's Adam Driver which means he's awesome. So let's just acknowledge that now.

10. Ben Foster- Hell or High Water

Ben Foster is one of the most underrated actors alive from Alpha Dog to 3:10 to Yuma to The Messenger to Six Feet Under. He's given so many wonderful performances from the year and Hell or High Water is no exception. Yet with Jeff Bridges going supporting, he's almost certainly going to be ignored by the Academy. But he did get a Spirit award nomination so that's better than nothing.
Update: He's not getting in, but damn he should.

Best Supporting Actress
This category seems the most obvious, with the same 5 actress nominated at SAG and the Golden Globes. Similar thing happened with Best Supporting Actor in 2014 and those 5 actors all ended up as the Oscar nominations.
The Actual Contenders

1. Viola Davis- Fences
Viola Davis reprises her Tony-winning role in Fences. She already lost for The Help, which some saw as a snub, and with the amount of hype, she definitely feels like a potential winner.

2. Michelle Williams- Manchester by the Sea
Williams has already been nominated 3 times and has already been building an "overdue" narrative before turning 40. Her performance in Manchester by the Sea has been called one of best of her career so she should be a safe bet.

3. Naomie Harris- Moonlight
Harris is fantastic in Moonlight, turning what could've been a stereotypical character into somebody rather complex. And Moonlight's hype still hasn't died down so she'll hopefully be a safe bet for a nomination.

4. Nicole Kidman- Lion
A less safe bet than the previous 3, but Kidman's positive reception for her role as Dev Patel's adopted mother in Moonlight and general respect by the Academy should push her forward.


5. Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures
(formerly #7)
Spencer unexpectedly become one of the biggest names following her acclaim and subsequent Oscar win for her role in The Help. Hidden Figures may be a chance to score her a second nomination if it lives up to its hype.

Dark Horses

6. Janelle Monáe- Hidden Figures
(formerly #8)
Monáe wasn't one I was thinking about too extensively but she ended up scoring a Critic's Choice nomination over Spencer, so she's clearly a contender at this point.

7. Greta Gerwig- 20th Century Women
(formerly #5)
She's on the bubble as 20th Century Women doesn't seem to have a lot of hype building currently, but Gerwig has the benefit of a not especially crowded category and the film's critical acclaim.
Update: 20th Century Women's hype has seemingly come and gone.

Best Picture
La La Land just won 7 Golden Globes and is clearly the frontrunner, but Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea are still possibilities. Everyone else should be happy just to be nominated. Putting Deadpool on here is weird, but with the WGA and PGA nominations, yes it is a contender. 

1. La La Land

2. Moonlight

3. Manchester by the Sea

4. Arrival

5. Lion

6. Hell or High Water

7. Fences

8. Hidden Figures

9. Hacksaw Ridge
10. Silence

11. Nocturnal Animals
12. Deadpool

Best Director
Best Director is hard to predict because there's almost always at least one surprise nominee. Last year it was Lenny Abrahamson. The year before it was Bennett Miller. 2013 didn't really have any surprises, but 2012 had Benh Zeitlin and Michael Haneke while 2011 had Terrence Malick. Will there be one this year? I don't know. Right now I'm going with Martin Scorcese as the surprise nomination, but I could be wrong. Tom Ford is a definite contender as well and the 5th slot could end up going to someone completely unexpected.

1. Damien Chazelle- La La Land

2. Barry Jenkins- Moonlight

3. Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the Sea

4. Denis Villeneuve- Arrival

5. Martin Scorcese- Silence

6. Tom Ford- Nocturnal Animals

7. Denzel Washington- Fences

8. Pablo Lorrain- Jackie

9. David Mackenzie- Hell or High Water

10. Mel Gibson- Hacksaw Ridge