2015 final Oscar Predictions

So the Oscars are tomorrow and through some statistical analysis, here are my predictions with the order of likelihood for the win. As a reminder, these aren't necessarily my preferences.

Best Actor
1. Eddie Redmayne- The Theory of Everything
2. Michael Keaton- Birdman
3. Benedict Cumberbatch- The Imitation Game
4. Steve Carell- Foxcatcher
5. Bradley Cooper- American Sniper

For the first time in a few years, I'm not entirely sure as to who will win Best Actor. It's clearly between Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne. Of course in a perfect world, the race would be between Michael Keaton and Jake Gyllenhaal but this isn't a perfect world. For a while, Michael Keaton was the clear frontrunner, winning all of the early precursors, but then Eddie Redmayne won the Golden Globe (for Drama while Keaton won the Golden Globe for comedy), BAFTA, and most importantly, the Screen Actors guild. The last time someone won the Best Actor Screen Actors Guild but didn't win the Oscar was 11 years ago when Johnny Depp won the SAG for Pirates of the Caribbean while Sean Penn won the Oscar for Mystic River. I feel that Michael Keaton deserves the win, but I feel like it'll be going to Eddie Redmayne. There's also the fact that Eddie Rdmayne just had his most recent movie Jupiter Ascending release and its been heavily panned with his performance receiving particular criticism. This might seem irrelevant but Eddie Murphy was the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor 8 years ago, winning at both SAG and the Golden Globes for Dreamgirls. Then his new movie Norbit came out a couple weeks before the Oscars and was arguably the worst film of his career. Next thing we knew, Alan Arkin won the Oscar instead. We'll see.

Best Actress

1. Julianne Moore- Still Alice

2. Reese Witherspoon- Wild

3. Felicity Jones- The Theory of Everything

4. Rosamund Pike- Gone Girl

5. Marion Cotillard- Two Days, One Night

It's going to Julianne Moore. This isn't a surprise. It's essentially a lifetime achievement award and no one else really stands a chance. Cotillard and Witherspoon are previous Oscar winners, Felicity Jones is an excellent young actress but her performance doesn't stand out enough because of the performance by Eddie Redmayne, and Rosamund Pike, as deserving as that would be, is ultimately in a movie that's just too dark to appease Academy voters. There's no competition. The others are lucky to be nominated.

Best Supporting Actor

1. J.K. Simmons- Whiplash

2. Edward Norton- Birdman

3. Ethan Hawke- Boyhood

4. Mark Ruffalo- Foxcatcher

5. Robert Duvall- The Judge

Once again, an easy lock. J.K. Simmons is going to win. He's winning everywhere. Edward Norton has a very small chance of squeezing in a win if the Academy wanted to make up for not giving him an Oscar for Primal Fear or American History X (and not nominating him for Fight Club), but I'd be very surprised if I didn't hear J.K. Simmons' name called tomorrow night.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Patricia Arquette- Boyhood

2. Emma Stone- Birdman

3. Keira Knightley- The Imitation Game

4. Meryl Streep- Into the Woods

5. Laura Dern- Wild

Patricia Arquette is also a clear lock. It's very hard to picture anyone else winning. Laura Dern barely made the cut, Meryl Streep will always get nominated but will only win on occasion, Keira Knightley is great in The Imitation Game but not that great. Emma Stone is the only potential spoiler but I'm not counting on it. Now if Renee Russo had been nominated for Nightcrawler, which she wasn't, well then maybe we'd be having an interesting competition. 

Best Original Screenplay

1. Birdman- Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. Armando Bo

2. The Grand Budapest Hotel- Wes Anderson and Hugh Guiness

3. Boyhood- Richard Linklater

4. Foxcatcher- E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman

5. Nightcrawler- Dan Gilroy

It could go a few ways at this point. I could definitely see Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, or Boyhood walking away with the win. I feel like Birdman may have a slight edge here but it's definitely not a lock so we'll see. Always nice when there's not a clear lock.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Imitation Game- Graham Moore

2. Theory of Everything- Anthony McCarten

3. American Sniper- Jason Hall

4. Whiplash- Damien Chazelle

5. Inherent Vice- Paul Thomas Anderson

If Gone Girl got nominated, we'd have a competition. Since it wasn't, it's pretty likely it'll go to Graham Moore. I wouldn't mind seeing Damien Chazelle win but I'm honestly just relieved that he got nominated.

Best Director

1. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu- Birdman

2. Richard Linklater- Boyhood

3. Wes Anderson- The Grand Budapest Hotel

4. Morten Tyldum- The Imitation Game

5. Bennett Miller- Foxcatcher

If Linklater wins, then Boyhood will win Best Picture but if Gonzalez Inarritu wins, well, we'll see. However, I'm still putting my money on Gonzalez Innaritu because he won at the Director's Guild of America. Of its previous 66 ceremonies, only 7 of its winners didn't go on to win the Academy Award for Best Director, one of those was Ben Affleck who was infamously snubbed in 2012 for Argo in spite of being a frontrunner so that hardly counts. So Gonzalez Innaritu has an 89.3% chance of winning and I like those odds. Fun Fact: If he wins, that'll make two Mexican directors winning in a row as Alfonso Cuaron won last year for Gravity.

Best Picture

1. Boyhood

2. Birdman

3. The Grand Budapest Hotel

4. Imitation Game

5. American Sniper

6. Whiplash

7. Theory of Everything

8. Selma

Last year 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture and Gravity won Best Director. 2 years ago Argo won Best Picture while Life of Pi won Best Director. Could there be another split for the 3rd year in a row? I think it's very possible with the close competition this year but it could definitely go either way. The reason I'm predicting Boyhood is because Birdman wasn't nominated for Best Editing. That may seem irrelevant but the last time a film WON Best Picture without being nominated for Best Editing was 34 years ago when Ordinary People won. Boyhood was nominated for Best Editing. On the other hand, Birdman won both the PGA (Producer's Guild of America, a notable predictor for Best Picture) and the SAG for Outstanding cast and only 2 movies have won both of those awards and NOT won Best Picture (Apollo 13 and Little Miss Sunshine). It could seriously go either way but since the Oscar for Film Editing has been around far longer than the SAG and PGA, I'm giving Boyhood a very slight edge, although I'd personally rather see Birdman win. This is honestly one of the closest Best Picture races in years. Hell, Boyhood and Birdman could even cancel each other out and make room for Grand Budapest Hotel. I'm excited to see how things play out.

So yeah, go fill out those Oscar ballots and scream in anger when the films you want to win don't win. It'll be a fun night.