2020 Oscar Predictions

Just another Oscar predictions list. These aren't my opinions, they're simply ordered by my predicted likelihood of a nomination. Subject to change.

Best Actor

1. Adam Driver- Marriage Story

Adam Driver has become quite the rising star over the last few years and I'd argue that he gives his best performance to date in Marriage Story. He's already garnering nominations left and right and the film is also a potential Best Picture frontrunner.

2. Joaquin Phoenix- Joker

Joker has been a controversial and divisive movie, but most seem to be in agreement that Joaquin Phoenix's performance is the best part. Like Driver, he's scoring nominations everywhere and is likely a lock for a nod at this point.

3. Leonardo DiCaprio- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

This is Leo's first movie since he won an Oscar for The Revenant 4 years ago and he seems likely to score another nod this year with a performance that's received nods by the Golden Globes, Critic's Choice, and SAG.

4. Taron Egerton- Rocketman

Rocketman came out awhile ago but that hasn't stopped Egerton's performance from being recognized by the Golden Globes and SAG. He's not as safe of a bet but seems like a probable nomination.

5. Christian Bale- Ford V. Ferrari
Bale's in 5th and his slot will definitely be one for the taking. Still, Bale has received 4 Oscar nominations in the last 9 years so the Academy clearly likes him and he probably shouldn't be discounted.

6. Adam Sandler- Uncut Gems

Sandler is getting career-best praise for Uncut Gems, but this might be a case of a film being too underseen to get proper recognition. Still, he won Best Actor at the National Board of Review and over the last 10 years, only 2 NBR Best Actor winners weren't nominated at the Oscars, so that's gotta count for something.

7. Robert De Niro- The Irishman

Honestly kinda surprised De Niro isn't more of a contender, though I guess he's more subdued and ambiguous than Pesci and De Niro. Still, he scored a Critic's Choice nomination and is in a Best Picture frontrunner so maybe he'll sneak his way into a nomination.

8. Antonio Banderas- Pain and Glory

Banderas has been a known actor for awhile but has never scored an Oscar nomination. I'm not sure he'll get in for a Spanish-language film not seen by many, but he's been recognized at the Golden Globes and Critic's Choice.

9. Eddie Murphy- Dolemite is My Name
Eddie Murphy gives quite a comeback performance in his first R-rated comedy in 20 years. He's quite the charismatic dude and based on his Golden Globe and Critic's Choice nods, could be a contender, though he'd likely be the film's sole nomination.

10. Jonathan Pryce- The Two Popes

Pryce has been a respected actor for awhile, kinda shocking to think he's never scored an Oscar nod before. Well, it doesn't get much baitier than playing the Pope so we'll see if the Academy takes the bait.

11. Robert Pattinson- The Lighthouse

Your day will come, Robert. And if it doesn't, that's on them.

12. Daniel Craig- Knives Out

Honestly just happy he got that Golden Globe nomination. Deserved it for the commitment to that accent.

13. Mark Ruffalo- Dark Waters

Not a film that's gotten much award recognition, but it's a good movie and I'm kinda shocked this "important issue" type of film is being ignored this awards season.

Best Actress

1. Scarlett Johansson- Marriage Story
I sometimes forget that Johansson wasn't nominated for Lost in Translation over 15 years ago, and hasn't received a single Oscar nomination to date. But she seems to be a lock for Marriage Story and I wouldn't be surprised if she managed to score a win because she seems to have much more hype than everyone else.

2. Charlize Theron- Bombshell

Although still actively working, Theron hasn't received an Oscar nomination for nearly 15 years but she's getting a lot of acclaim for her work in Bombshell that seems likely to score her another nomination.

3. Renee Zellweger- Judy
Judy is Zellweger's comeback film, although some have argued it's a great performance in a mediocre film, that might be enough to get her in. 

4. Saoirse Ronan- Little Women

Ronan scored her 3rd Oscar nomination at just 23 years old. The Academy clearly likes her and everyone is liking Little Women. Her snub at SAG didn't help but I think she'll work her way in.

5. Cynthia Erivo- Harriet

Erivo's sudden onslaught of nominations surprised me because the film seemed to have come and gone fairly quickly. If nominated, she'd likely be the sole nomination so I'd argue she's on shaky ground but getting in at Critic's Choice, SAG, and Golden Globes is impressive.

6. Lupita N'yongo- Us

Lupita N'yongo was recognized at Critic's Choice and SAG but not the Golden Globes. She's also in a horror film, which posits a bit of an uphill battle when it comes to Oscar recognition. 

7. Awkwafina- The Farewell

Awkwafina has a good narrative, being a comedic actress who was able to show her dramatic abilities. The Academy loves a good narrative and she's scored Critic's Choice and Golden Globe nominations (snubbed at SAG). But she's not a lock and we'll see if the Academy still remembers an A24 film that got released in the Summer. 

8. Ana De Armas- Knives Out

Ana De Armas had been in previous films but she's recognized as the breakout star of Knives Out, scoring a Golden Globe nomination.

9. Florence Pugh- Midsommar

It's gonna be a Hereditary situation all over again. Maybe someday people in Ari Aster films will get Oscar nominations.

10. Alfre Woodard- Clemency

Alfre Woodard's performance as a prison warden is garnering her lots of acclaim and opening right at the end of the year seems to have potential for an upset if enough people check out her film.

11. Elisabeth Moss- Her Smell

Director Alex Ross Perry is campaigning for her and Moss seems like the type of actress who's gonna get the right role for an Oscar nomination sooner or later, but it's probably not happening this year.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Putting Brad Pitt at #1 is more of an educated guess, but he's scoring the major precursors, is a very well-liked actor, and I think the Academy is ready to finally recognize him with an acting Oscar.

2. Joe Pesci- The Irishman

Pesci came out of his unofficial retirement to star in The Irishman and he hasn't been this good since Goodfellas. He's getting nominated left and right and even won at the National Board of Review.

3. Al Pacino- The Irishman

Al Pacino has been nominated 8 times, but it's been over 25 years since his last nomination. That seems likely to end this year. The only question is whether he and Pesci could cancel each other out but I could picture them both getting in.

4. Tom Hanks- A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Everyone loves Tom Hanks, including the Academy, but he hasn't actually been nominated for an Oscar in nearly 20 years. He didn't get in for Captain Phillips, Bridge of Spies, or The Post, but he seems like he might have a chance for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, as he's already scored all the major precursors.

5. Anthony Hopkins- The Two Popes

Hopkins, like Hanks, is one of the most respected actors working today, but he hasn't actually scored an Oscar nomination for over 20 years. It might change this year with a performance that's been recognized by the Golden Globes and Critic's Choice.

6. Willem Dafoe- The Lighthouse

Probably too artsy and weird for the Academy but Willem Dafoe gives what might be the performance of his career in The Lighthouse and at least the Critic's Choice awards were willing to recognize that.

7. Jamie Foxx- Just Mercy

Foxx's performance in Just Mercy is being praised by some and his best performance in over a decade and his SAG nomination solidifies that people are paying attention.

8. Song Kang Ho- Parasite

First off, he's one of my favorite actors so although unlikely, I'm kinda pulling for him. Last year, we had a foreign language film (Roma) that was a Best Picture frontrunner and squeezed in two unexpected acting nods when the Oscars were announced. Maybe it could happen again this year.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern- Marriage Story

Laura Dern seems pretty beloved in Hollywood and has a fun and showy supporting role in an acclaimed Best Picture winner. Is she a lock for a win? Not yet, but it certainly seems more than possible.

2. Margot Robbie- Bombshell

Margot Robbie received her first Oscar nomination 2 years ago and seems to be viewed as the highlight of Bombshell, garnering nominations everywhere.

3. Jennifer Lopez- Hustlers

Jennifer Lopez has never scored an Oscar nomination, which seemingly could finally change this year as she's scoring the major precursors.

4. Scarlett Johansson- Jojo Rabbit

Could Scarlett Johansson get a second nomination alongside Marriage Story? Yep, it's certainly possible and the Critic's Choice and SAG seem to agree, but this feels less locked than her Marriage Story performance. 

5. Florence Pugh- Little Women

If Florence Pugh won't get recognized for Midsommar, this'll have to do.

6. Nicole Kidman- Bombshell

She's lacking the recognition of her co-stars but Kidman did get recognized at SAG. Could she squeeze in? Maybe.

7, Shuzhen Zhao- The Farewell

Nominate Shuzhen Zhao, you cowards! 

8. Kathy Bates- Richard Jewell

Richard Jewell has underperformed at the box office which doesn't help but Kathy Bates has received a Golden Globe nod and a win at the National Board of Review. She could be a dark horse.

9, Annette Bening- The Report

Bening scored a Golden globe nod, which many found surprising. Probably won't get in but she is playing a real person in a "big issue" film.

Best Director

1. Bong Joon Ho- Parasite

2. Martin Scorsese- The Irishman

3. Noah Baumbach- Marriage Story

4. Sam Mendes- 1917

5. Quentin Tarantino- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

6. Greta Gerwig- Little Women

7. Pedro Almodóvar- Pain & Glory

8. Todd Phillips- Joker

9. Taika Waititi- Jojo Rabbit

10. The Safdie Brothers- Uncut Gems

11. Robert Eggers- The Lighthouse

12. Lulu Wang- The Farewell

13. James Mangold- Ford v. Ferrari

14. Marielle Heller- A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

15. Terrence Malick- A Hidden Life