2019 Academy Awards: Final Predictions for Winners in all 24 categories

Here are my final predictions for the Academy Awards in every category. These are ranked in terms of likelihood of winning, not my personal rankings. For the top 8, I've also included my favorite of what was nominated and what I actually think deserves to win regardless of if they were nominated or not.


Best Picture

1. Roma

2. The Favourite

3. Green Book

4. Black KkKlansman

5. A Star is Born

6. Vice

7. Bohemian Rhapsody

8. Black Panther

Roma seems like a fairly safe bet here, though maybe The Favourite could have some goodwill going its way. Green Book did win at the PGA, which is often a precursor to the Best Picture winner, but there have been several exceptions including in recent years (The Big Short and La La Land won but lost at the Oscars). Green Book also didn't get nominated for Best Director. The last time a film won Best Picture without a directing nomination was Ben Affleck in Argo, and those were very unusual circumstances where Affleck was viewed as a Best Director frontrunner before his snub. Still, Green Book could appeal to older Academy voters, but I think most agree that Roma has the biggest chance.

My Pick of the Nominees: The Favourite (Roma would be an equally worthy winner)

My Actual Pick: The Favourite

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

2. Spike Lee- BlacKkKlansman

3. Yorgos Lanthimos- The Favourite

4. Adam McKay- Vice

5. Paweł Pawlikowski- Cold War

It's going to Alfonso Cuarón. I really can't imagine it going to anyone else this year. 

My Pick of the Nominees: Alfonso Cuarón- Roma

My Actual Pick: Alfonso Cuarón- Roma

Best Actor

1. Rami Malek- Bohemian Rhapsody

2. Christian Bale- Vice

3. Bradley Cooper- A Star is Born

4. Viggo Mortensen- Green Book

5. Willem Dafoe- At Eternity’s Gate

Well, we all know Ethan Hawke would be the frontrunner in a just world, but this isn't a just world. As it is, it's probably going to Rami Malek, who admittedly is the best part of a very flawed film and definitely helps elevate it a fair bit, though I'd still rank him 4th of the nominees, only above Viggo Mortensen. Christian Bale could potentially win for Vice. It'd be his second Oscar, but first in the leading actor category, but Malek definitely has the edge with the SAG and BAFTA wins. Bradley Cooper is the next most likely, but he hasn't been noticed much this awards season. Viggo Mortensen and Willem Dafoe definitely aren't winning.

My Pick of the Nominees: Willem Dafoe- At Eternity’s Gate

My Actual Pick: Ethan Hawke- First Reformed

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close- The Wife

2. Olivia Colman- The Favourite

3. Melissa McCarthy- Can You Ever Forgive Me?

4. Lady Gaga- A Star is Born

5. Yalitza Aparicio- Roma

This is Glenn Close's 7th nomination and now she might finally win, after being recognized at the Golden Globes, SAG, and Critic's Choice. She only lost at the BAFTAs to Olivia Colman. I do think Colman gave the better performance, but even Academy voters who agree with me may still feel inclined to award Glenn Close due to her long-time unrecognized status, while Colman will likely have future chances. Whether or not you agree with that logic is irrelevant. After all, Al Pacino won an Oscar for Scent of a Woman, his eighth nomination, but very few would call that his best performance. So I'm rooting for Colman, but I'll definitely be happy for Close if she does win.

My Pick of the nominees: Olivia Colman- The Favourite

My Actual Pick: Olivia Colman for The Favourite or Toni Collette for Hereditary. I don’t know. They’re both perfect.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali- Green Book

2. Richard E. Grant- Can You Ever Forgive Me?

3. Sam Elliot- A Star is Born

4. Adam Driver- Black KkKlansman

5. Sam Rockwell- Vice

Conventional logic dictates that this Oscar is going to Mahershala Ali. He's won at the 4 big precursors and he's been the one controversy-free element of Green Book's controversial last couple months. The only question is will the Academy want to award him again just two years after Moonlight? It's possible. Jason Robards won Best Supporting Actor two years in a row for All the President's Men and Julia. But maybe Richard E. Grant could sneak in for an upset win or Sam Elliot's status as a respected veteran actor could do him some favors. Adam Driver definitely isn't winning, but I'm sure he'll have plenty of nominees to come. I adore Sam Rockwell, but everyone knows his nomination for Vice is a filler slot.

My Pick of the Nominees: Sam Elliott- A Star is Born

My Actual Pick: Steven Yeun- Burning

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King- If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Rachel Weisz- The Favourite

3. Amy Adams- Vice

4. Emma Stone- The Favourite

5. Marina de Tavira- Roma

Definitely between Regina King and Rachel Weisz. Rachel Weisz has the advantage of having previously been nominated in every major awards body as well as being in a Best Picture contender. Regina King, in contrast, was snubbed at SAG and BAFTA. Rachel Weisz won at BAFTA while Emily Blunt, who wasn't nominated, won at SAG, which helps King's chances. Regina King has won often when she is nominated, most prominently at the Critic's Choice and Golden Globes. This situation somewhat resembles 2015 with Regina King being akin to Sylvester Stallone and Rachel Weisz being akin to Mark Rylance. It was Mark Rylance who ended up winning, but I'm still giving Regina King the slight edge. Rachel Weisz has already won and the Academy might not feel the need to award her again when there's another acclaimed performance in the mix. It'll be a nail biter.

My Pick of the nominees: Regina King- If Beale Street Could Talk

My Actual Pick: Regina King- If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)

2. Green Book (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly)

3. First Reformed (Paul Schrader)

4. Roma (Alfonso Cuarón)

5. Vice (Adam McKay)

I wished the race was between The Favourite and First Reformed, because I'd be happy to see either one win. As it is, it's more likely between The Favourite and Green Book. I still think The Favourite will edge out but there is a chance older Academy voters will take more to Green Book. Roma is fantastic, but it's a primarily visual film, so it won't be winning here. Adam McKay's definitely not winning. 

My Pick of the Nominees: First Reformed or The Favourite

My Actual Pick: Uh...First Reformed or The Favourite

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee)
2. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)

4. A Star is Born (Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters) 

5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel & Ethan Coen)

This one is really tough. It's definitely between Can You Ever Forgive Me or BlacKkKlansman. I keep going back and forth with my predictions here. Can You Ever Forgive me won at the WGA (Writers Guild Awards) but I wouldn't be surprised if the Academy wants to give Spike Lee something, even if it's a shared award. So why am I giving BlacKkKlansman the edge? It was nominated for Best Picture. Can You Ever Forgive Me wasn't. The last time a film won Best Adapted Screenplay without a Best Picture nomination was Gods and Monsters 20 years ago.

My Pick of the Nominees: If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)

My Actual Pick: The Death of Stalin (Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin)

Other Predictions (Without Rankings):

Best Animated film: Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse (Alt: The Incredibles 2)

Best Foreign language film: Roma (alt: Cold War)

Best Original Song: Shallow (A Star is born)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Vice

Best Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War (Alt: First Man)

Best Documentary: Free Solo (Alt: Minding the Gap)

Best Costume Design: Black Panther (Alt: The Favourite)

Best Original Score: This one is tough, but I'm going with If Beale Street Could Talk, which would be a worthy winner (Alt: Black Panther)

Best Sound Editing: First Man (Alt: A Quiet Place)

Best sound mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody (Alt: First Man)

Best Editing: Vice (Alt: The Favourite). Or maybe Bohemian Rhapsody could win. It won at the BAFTAs. I don't know. The Favourite should win, but Vice is the flashier film. Just don't give it to Bohemian Rhapsody, please.

Best Production Design: The Favourite (Alt: Black Panther)

Best Cinematography: Roma (Alt: The Favourite)

Best Animated Short: Bao

Best Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence

Best Live Action Short: Marguerite