Here are my final predictions for the Academy Awards in every category. These are ranked in terms of likelihood of winning, not my personal rankings.
Best Actor
1. Gary Oldman- The Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet- Call Me By Your Name
3. Daniel Day-Lewis- Phantom Thread
4. Daniel Kaluuya- Get Out
5. Denzel Washington- Roman J. Israel Esq.
The Oscar is obviously Gary Oldman's to lose. He's sweeping everywhere. Timothée Chalamet seems like the next most likely choice and at 22, he'd be the youngest Best Actor winner in history. 3 time Oscar winner Daniel-Day Lewis is reportedly retiring after Phantom Thread and if anyone deserves 4 Oscars, it's him, but I'm not convinced the Academy will snub Gary Oldman, an actor long unrecognized, to give Day-Lewis a 4th Oscar. Kaluuya's nomination is nice but most of the hype is on his film's screenplay and direction. Denzel Washington should be happy just to be nominated and I highly doubt he even wants to win.
Best Actress
1. Frances McDormand- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Sally Hawkins- The Shape of Water
3. Saoirse Ronan- Lady Bird
4. Margot Robbie- I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep- The Post
This race is between McDormand, Hawkins, and Ronan. Robbie and Streep ain't getting it. The top three actresses are also in films that could theoretically win Best Picture, so I'd say they all have a shot, but McDormand has been largely sweeping. She previously won an Oscar 21 years ago for Fargo, but I think the Academy is going to be more than willing to award her a second time.
Best Supporting Actor
1. Sam Rockwell- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe- The Florida Project
3. Woody Harrelson- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Richard Jenkins- The Shape of Water
5. Christopher Plummer- All the Money in the World
This race is squarely between Rockwell and Dafoe, with Rockwell as the current frontrunner. A lot of articles have come out criticizing Rockwell's character arc in the film (though not necessarily his performance) and my opinions aside, it's hard to say if this'll have any affect on Rockwell's chances. I'd say he's the most likely to be upset of the acting frontrunners with Dafoe as the likely choice to take second choice, but I'm still going with Rockwell.
Best Supporting Actress
1. Allison Janney- I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf- Lady Bird
3. Mary J. Blige- Mudbound
4. Octavia Spencer- The Shape of Water
5. Lesley Manville- Phantom Thread
Like Best Supporting Actor, this race is between two people, Janney and Metcalf, with Janney as the frontrunner, having sweeped most of the awards. Right now, I can't think of any reason for things to play out differently, but Lady Bird is a likely contender in all of its categories but I wouldn't call it a lock. Still, I'm guessing the Academy would wanna give it some love in some way. Regardless, I'm sticking with Janney. Also, as a reminder, these are numbered in terms of likelihood, not preference. I'd love for Lesley Manville to be a bigger contender but I was thrilled just to see her get nominated.
Best Original Screenplay
1. Get Out (Jordan Peele)
2. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig)
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
4. The Shape of Water (Guillermo Del Toro and Vanessa Taylor)
5. The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani)
This is an exciting race. Any of the top 4 could theoretically win. I love The Big Sick, but it's the movie's sole nomination. It's not winning. The other 4 are serious Best Picture contenders. I'm going with Get Out because the script has a lot of layers and is honestly probably the strongest part of the film, while I'd argue the strongest parts of the other films are things like acting and direction. Still, it'll be an interesting race and it's nice seeing one that could go in so many different ways.
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Call Me By Your Name (James Ivory)
2. Mudbound (Virgil Williams and Dee Rees)
3. The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber)
4. Logan (Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green)
5. Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin)
Unlike Original Screenplay, this category is much more obvious. No other film has a chance. The screenplay nod is the sole nomination for The Disaster Artist, Logan, and Molly's Game. Mudbound is a great movie but the second half of the screenplay is definitely better than the first half. This one's obvious regardless of your personal preference.
Best Director
1. Guillermo Del Toro- The Shape of Water
2. Jordan Peele- Get Out
3. Greta Gerwig- Lady Bird
4. Christopher Nolan- Dunkirk
5. Paul Thomas Anderson- Phantom Thread
Del Toro, Peele, and Gerwig seem like the most likely candidates, especially due to Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards snub, but I'm going with Del Toro because his film is the most visual, while Peele and Gerwig, while certainly well-directed, stood out to me more due to their screenplays. Nolan fanboys are gonna have to wait, but at least he finally got a directing nod. And of course, I'd love to see Paul Thomas Anderson finally win an Oscar (he's been nominated 8 times now), but it's not happening this year.
Best Picture
1. The Shape of Water
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. Get Out
5. Dunkirk
6. Phantom Thread
7. Call Me By Your Name
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour
For a long time, I was predicting Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, but with McDonagh's Oscar snub for director, I'm not so sure. The last time a movie won Best Picture without getting a best director nomination was Argo in 2012, but that film had a much larger uproar over the snub. Still, I won't count it out and likewise I won't count out Lady Bird and Get Out either, but The Shape of Water still won the Producers Guild of America award which statistically speaking, should work in its favor.
Other Predictions (without rankings)
Best Animated Feature: Coco
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Best Editing: Dunkirk
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: Coco (Remember Me)
Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Documentary Feature: Faces Places
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball
Best Documentary Short: Heroin(e)
Best Live Action Short: Watu Wote: All of Us
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