Final 2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Another year, another set of Oscar Predictions. As a reminder, these are purely my current predictions ranked in order of likelihood, not necessarily who I want to be nominated or win.

Best Supporting Actor
The Locks

1. Sam Rockwell- Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Formerly Ranked #2

I've been a big fan of Sam Rockwell for a long time and I'm thrilled to see that he's finally getting some recognition. It helps that Three Billboards is probably his best performance since Moon, giving surprising depth to a character who could've been far more flat.

Update: With a Golden Globe and SAG win, Rockwell is solidified as an Oscar frontrunner.

2. Willem Dafoe- The Florida Project
Formerly Ranked #1

Willem Dafoe's performance in The Florida Project isn't the most baity. It's a very casual performance with no big "Oscar scenes" in it, but Dafoe effortlessly disappears into his character and blends in well with the rest of the cast, predominately filled with amateur and non-actors.

The Likely Contenders

3. Richard Jenkins- The Shape of Water

Jenkins is another underrated actor who I'm happy to see get more recognition. His performance has been gaining numerous accolades and I'd love to see him work with Guillermo Del Toro again.

4. Woody Harrelson- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Formerly Ranked #7

Woody Harrelson has an impressive resume and Three Billboards is no exception. While most of the hype has been on Sam Rockwell, Harrelson managed to score a SAG nomination.

Update: The last time two people from the same movie were nominated in the Best Supporting Actor category was Bugsy in 1990. With the film's Best Picture frontrunner status, could Rockwell and Harrelson both get in? It's not a guarantee but a strong possibility.

5. Armie Hammer- Call Me By Your Name
Formerly Ranked #4

Armie Hammer was seemingly starting to fade after films like The Lone Ranger, The Birth of a Nation, and The Man from UNCLE all tanked at the box office, but Call Me By Your Name is probably his best performance to date. His snub at SAG was surprising and concerning, but hopefully the film has received enough recognition that his excellent and naturalistic performance won't go unnoticed. 

Update: Hammer wasn't recognized at the BAFTAs either. At this point, he's a borderline case.


6. Christopher Plummer- All the Money in the World

Christopher Plummer's performance as J. Paul Getty was filmed in November, the result of quick reshoots made to replace Kevin Spacey following allegations of sexual assault made against him. Whether this complicated history will ultimately help or hurt Plummer is hard to say, but reviews have been mostly positive and Plummer scored a Golden Globe nomination. 

Update: Plummer scored a BAFTA nomination, but All the Money in the World hasn't exactly been a Box office hit. It's only grossed $39 million worldwide on a $50 million budget and Plummer seems to be the only major contender for the film currently. When his competition of Hammer, Harrelson, and Jenkins are all in likely Best Picture nominees, it's questionable how this'll affect his chances.

7. Steve Carell- Battle of the Sexes
Formerly Ranked #5

While word was initially a bit quiet, Carell recently scored a Golden Globe and SAG nomination for his performance as Tennis player Bobby Riggs.

Update: Word still remains a bit quiet on this one, even with the nominations. Still shouldn't count him out.

8. Michael Stuhlbarg- Call Me by Your Name

Similar to Harrelson, Stuhlbarg isn't receiving as much attention as his co-star, Armie Hammer, but he's getting enough small nominations that he shouldn't be considered out of the woods yet. The complicated thing is that his Oscar buzz is likely predominately due to a single scene in the movie. The good news is that this single scene is phenomenally acted and memorable.

Update: He hasn't gotten any major precursors, mostly just critics' awards, but the film has gotten enough attention that it'd feel weird leaving him out.

The Longshots

9. Jason Mitchell and Garrett Hedlund- Mudbound

I'm including these both together since they're both long shots at the moment and their chemistry is so damn good. Two years after Straight Outta Compton, Jason Mitchell is showing his range as a black WWII veteran from Mississippi, while Garrett Hedlund, after a handful of duds, gives what is easily his best performance as a white WWII veteran from Mississippi. No matter what happens, I hope this will help both actors get more roles and recognition. 

10. Tracy Letts- Lady Bird

Lady Bird primarily focuses on a mother-daughter relationship, but Letts' strong work as a loving father shouldn't be forgotten either.

11. Patrick Stewart- Logan

Patrick Stewart's work in Logan is his 7th performance as Professor Charles Xavier (including cameos) and easily his best portrayal of the character and he's even managed to score a Critic's Choice nomination for his work. It's pretty shocking that someone as respected as Stewart has never scored an Oscar nomination. Could this be the first? Probably not, but MAYBE.

12. Harrison Ford- Blade Runner 2049

Blade Runner 2049 marks some of Harrison Ford's best work to date, simultaneously subtle yet passionate. However, in spite of being acclaimed upon release, he's been virtually free of accolades, making him a long-shot for a nomination.

13. Ben Mendelsohn- Darkest Hour

Ben Mendelsohn, primarily known for playing antagonists, (Bloodline, Animal Kingdom, Rogue One) portrays King George VI in this Winston Churchill biopic, earning him a couple accolades. 

14. Ray Romano- The Big Sick

While the vast majority of attention is focused on Holly Hunter's wife character, Romano is still very entertaining to watch in The Big Sick


15. Mark Rylance- Dunkirk
Dunkirk is a good movie, but it's not exactly an actors' movie, in spite of its strong cast. The characters are intentionally undeveloped with the film emphasizing things like cinematography, sound, editing, and music. However, Rylance (who won an Oscar 2 years ago for Bridge of Spies) still brings a lot to the table, portraying a civilian trying to save as many soldiers as he can in his small boat. 

16. Gil Birmingham- Wind River

Definitely not going to happen, but Birmingham's heartbreaking work in Wind River deserves a shoutout.

17. Wes Studi- Hostiles

The Cherokee actor perhaps best known for his work in Dances with Wolves and The Last of the Mohicans returns to the Western yet again. Here's hoping the film gives him lots of strong material to work with.


18. Benny Safdie- Good Time

Honestly this is probably one of my favorite portrayals of a mentally challenged person. It'd be easy to go into hammy territory, but Safdie (who also co-directed the film) keeps things relatively restrained and manages to make a sympathetic character from the opening scene. It's too bad that the film was so underseen.


19. Will Poulter- Detroit
Poulter seemed like a huge miscast based on Detroit's trailer, so I was shocked when I saw just how good he actually was. He's surprisingly intimidating throughout but also never feels one-dimensional, creating one of the more memorable villains in recent cinema. It's too bad Detroit tanked at the box office and has seemingly been largely forgotten about.


20. Bill Skarsgård- It
As Pennywise, the terrifying clown antagonist of It, Skarsgård was already filling in big shoes taking over from Tim Curry. Fortunately, he absolutely nailed it, creating a terrifying force whenever the film gave him a chance to shine. If there was any problem with It, it was that the film felt too reliant on CGI and jump scares when Bill Skarsgård was scary enough by just smiling and speaking ("Is this not real enough for you?"). It's not an easy performance to pull off and it's a shame he's not getting more recognition.

Best Supporting Actress
The Locks

1. Allison Janney- I, Tonya
Formerly Ranked #2

Allison Janney is also receiving raves for her performance as a mother with a complicated relationship with her daughter. 

Update: With Janney winning a Golden Globe and SAG, she's now the clear frontrunner

2. Laurie Metcalf- Lady Bird
Formerly Ranked #1

Laurie Metcalf is receiving well-deserved raves for her performance as a mother with a complicated relationship with her daughter, creating a really genuine character onscreen.

3. Mary J. Blige- Mudbound

Mary J. Blige has also received raves for her performance as a mother, but separates itself from the pack as the character does not have a complicated relationship with her daughter.

The Likely Contenders

4. Holly Hunter- The Big Sick
Formerly Ranked #5

Holly Hunter gives some of her best work in years in The Big Sick, mixing laughs and heart and sass to make a really likable character.

5. Hong Chau- Downsizing
Formerly Ranked #4

Hong Chau's reception has been interesting. Often viewed as the highlight of Downsizing, but also receiving criticism for allegedly having stereotypical qualities. Still, the SAG, Critic's Choice, and Golden Globe nod are a good start.

Update: This is a very borderline case. She got three important precursors, but the performance is still divisive and the film even more so, along with a poor box office performance ($37 million on a $68 million budget). This is in contrast to Spencer (more on that below). If nominated, she would likely be the film's only nominee.

6. Octavia Spencer- The Shape of Water

Spencer's charisma helps elevate her character beyond simply being "the protagonist's friend" and creates an entertaining dynamic that was enough to score her a Golden Globe nomination. Whether this'll be enough for an Oscar nomination is hard to say.

Update: Spencer greatly contrasts with Chau because her film is doing solid at the box office and is in serious competition for Best Picture. However, in contrast to Chau, Spencer is decidedly not considered the highlight of the film with Hawkins and Jenkins being more likely nominees. Still, she shouldn't be counted out.

7. Lesley Manville- Phantom Thread

While most of the acclaim is centered on Daniel Day-Lewis' performance, Lesley Manville's portrayal as his strong-willed sister and business partner is also getting some notice.

The Longshots

8. Tatiana Maslaney- Stronger

Stronger is largely elevated by Jake Gyllenhaal's performance, but Tatiana Maslaney's work includes a lot of strong scenes playing off of Gyllenhaal that deserve more recognition. 

9. Kristin Scott Thomas- Darkest Hour

As Clementine Churchill, wife of Winston Churchill, Kristin Scott Thomas may have a lot of accolades yet, but it's a baity role on paper.

10. Tiffany Haddish- Girls Trip

An unusual case of a film that was a surprise box office success and begin to get small accolades for one of its stars before being ignored completely at the Golden Globes and SAG. What does this mean? Probably nothing. 

Best Actor
The Locks

1. Gary Oldman- Darkest Hour

Gary Oldman is often regarded as one of the greatest living actors and he's never won an Oscar. For what could be his most baity role to date, playing Winston Churchill, this seems like it could be the one. He's getting raves and nominations left and right, with some even calling it among his greatest performances.

Update: He's got the Globe, he's got SAG. It's going to Oldman.

2. Timothée Chalamet- Call Me By Your Name

At just barely 22 years of age, Chalamet would be the third youngest nominee for Best Actor. If he won, he'd be the youngest winner by 7 years. His fantastic performance hasn't gone unnoticed so far and should be a safe bet for a nomination.

3. Daniel Day-Lewis- Phantom Thread
Formerly Ranked #4

In what is said to be his final performance before retirement, Daniel Day-Lewis seems to be going out with quite a bang. While I'm not convinced he's going to win a 4th Oscar, someone of his stature in a Paul Thomas Anderson film seems like a safe bet for a nomination.

The Likely Contenders

4. Daniel Kaluyaa- Get Out
Formerly Ranked #5

In spite of releasing in February, Get Out is getting many nominations, including Golden Globe and SAG nods for Daniel Kaluyaa. However, as the film is still primarily more driven by its direction, atmosphere, and screenplay rather than Kaluyaa's performance, I wouldn't call him a lock for a nomination. 

Update: He's got the big 4 precursors (Golden Globe, Critic's Choice, SAG, and BAFTA) which works greatly in his favor.

5. James Franco- The Disaster Artist
Formerly Ranked #3

James Franco brings surprising depth to his portrayal of Tommy Wiseau, making him feel like a (really weird) person, rather than just a joke and it completely pays off.

Update: If anyone was curious if those sexual misconduct allegations would affect Franco's chance of a nomination, they probably won't. The LA Times article came out on January 11. The Academy had been voting since January 5 and closed on January 12, so any affect this had is probably pretty minimal. Still, I feel Kaluyaa and Day-Lewis are more serious contenders at this point, with their films being potential Best Picture nominees.

6. Tom Hanks- The Post
Formerly Ranked #7

Hanks and Spielberg is almost always a beloved combination, although Hanks hasn't been nominated for an Oscar since Cast Away in 2000. After not being nominated for films like Captain Phillips, Sully, and Bridge of Spies, it's hard to say if the Academy will be ready to nominate him again.

Update: If Franco manages to not get in, Hanks seems like the most obvious choice to take his place.

7. Denzel Washington- Roman J. Israel Esq.
Formerly Ranked #6

The film has received mixed reviews and hasn't made much of a splash at the box office, but Denzel Washington managed to unexpectedly score a Golden Globe and SAG nomination for the film.

8. Jamie Bell- Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
New Addition
Jamie Bell just scored his first BAFTA nod since Billy Elliott for his work in Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool. But it's hard to say how the American Academy will take to his performance.

The Longshots

9. Jake Gyllenhall- Stronger
Formerly Ranked #8

Jake Gyllenhaal has brought in quite a few excellent performances, but was only nominated once for Brokeback Mountain in 2005. After receiving hype but ultimately being snubbed for films like Prisoners, Nightcrawler, and Nocturnal Animals, it's hard to say if he'd get more recognition for what is ostensibly a more Oscar-friendly film. However, at this point his accolades have been small, most prominently a Critic's Choice nomination.

Update: Sorry, Jake. Maybe you'll have better luck with Wildlife next year.

10. Christian Bale- Hostiles
Formerly Ranked #9

Director Scott Cooper (Crazy Heart, Out of the Furnace, Black Mass) is known for getting really strong performances from his actors, with Christian Bale's work in Hostiles apparently being no exception. However, response to the overall film has been positive but not overly enthusiastic and the film is receiving few accolades.

11. Jeremy Renner- Wind River
Formerly Ranked #10

Wind River features one of Jeremy Renner's strongest performances to date, but the film has unfortunately stalled in accolades.

12. Kumail Nanjiani- The Big Sick
Formerly Ranked #11

While he's essentially playing himself, Kumail Nanjiani still deserves credit for the charisma he's able to bring to The Big Sick, and balances both the funny and serious scenes quite well.

13. Hugh Jackman- Logan
Formerly Ranked #12

Jackman's 9th performance as Logan/Wolverine over the course of 17 years is also easily his strongest. He brings vulnerability to the superhero rarely seen in film.


14. Robert Pattinson- Good Time
Formerly Ranked #13
I've never been a huge fan of Robert Pattinson, but this movie completely changed my mind on him. Easily the best performance I've ever seen him give and I only saw the character and not the actor as I watched it. It's also a very small indie film that few have seen or even heard of, making his Oscar chances unlikely. But he did get a nod at the independent spirit awards.


15. James McAvoy- Split
Formerly Ranked #14
Split is a film I did not have high expectations for that ended up being a pleasant surprise and this is largely carried by McAvoy's excellent performance. This is a film that would have been terrible if it was made with a lesser actor. Playing a man with multiple personalities makes the odds of going into pure camp very risky (which is what I feared from the trailers) but McAvoy actually pulls it off beautifully. The film however suffers from its January release date. However, McAvoy has scored a couple critics' nods.


16. Harry Dean Stanton- Lucky
Formerly Ranked #15
This is a HUGE longshot, but the late Harry Dean Stanton went out with a bang with Lucky, one of his few lead roles and in my opinion his strongest work since Paris, Texas. His character is obviously based on Stanton himself, but you're so immersed in his story that it's not even remotely a problem. A posthumous nomination for the underrated actor is incredibly unlikely, but the performance will hopefully be remembered in the years to come.

Best Actress
The Locks

1. Frances McDormand- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I love Fargo, but I'd argue Three Billboards is Frances McDormand's strongest performance to date. She's hilarious when she needs to be, she's heartbreaking when she needs to be, and every beat from the actress feels real.

Update: McDormand has gotten the Golden Globe and SAG, so she could very easily be coming for her second Oscar now.

2. Sally Hawkins- The Shape of Water

Sally Hawkins' plays a mute woman in The Shape of Water, but Hawkins succeeds and making us attached to the character, and not simply seeing her being mute as a gimmick. It'd be very easy for this kind of performance to feel forced with exaggerated facial expressions, but Hawkins succeeds in bringing life to a character rarely seen in film.

3. Saoirse Ronan- Lady Bird

If nominated, this would be Ronan's third nomination at just 23 years. As much as I loved her work in Atonement and Brooklyn, I actually think Lady Bird is her strongest performance to date. Her chemistry with Laurie Metcalf is so seamless and as Ronan's character basically drives the entire film, it's hard to imagine her not being nominated.

4. Margot Robbie- I, Tonya

Since The Wolf of Wall Street came out in 2013, Margot Robbie's career has steadily risen with I, Tonya giving some of the biggest raves of her career for her portrayal of infamous figure skater Tonya Harding. 

The Contenders

5. Meryl Streep- The Post

I don't think I really need to say anything about this.

Update: Hard to say. Not only did she not get nominated at SAG or BAFTA, but The Post was completely snubbed. That said, she's still Meryl Streep so that works in her favor with the Academy.

6. Jessica Chastain- Molly's Game
Formerly Ranked #7

Chastain scored a Golden Globe nomination for Molly's Game, making it her 5th Golden Globe nomination in the last 7 years. She seems to be a contender for an Oscar nomination again, but at this point her hype seems lower than the woman ranked above her.

Update: She'd definitely be a worthy nomination, but can she really beat out Streep?

7. Michelle Williams- All the Money in the World
Formerly Ranked #9

Fresh off of her nomination last year for Manchester by the Sea, Williams looks to be the heart of this film, a mother desperately trying to save her kidnapped son. She's scored a Golden Globe nomination but not much else.

8. Judi Dench- Victoria and Abdul
Formerly Ranked #6

Judi Dench previously received an Academy Award nomination for portraying Queen Victoria in the film Mrs. Brown in 1997. Now she has a chance of being nominated for for playing the same character again in a completely unrelated movie. Dench has already scored a Golden Globe, Satellite, and SAG nomination for her performance, but it's hard to know if the film's controversy over its portrayal of the British Raj will affect her chances.

9. Annette Bening- Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
New Addition
Just as the film's hype seemed to be dying down, she scored a BAFTA nod. Still, nowhere near a lock but it counts for something.

The Longshots

10. Emma Stone- Battle of the Sexes
Formerly Ranked #8

Emma Stone won her first Oscar last year for La La Land. Her first post-Oscar performance has her portraying tennis player Billie Jean King in a performance that's scored her a Golden Globe nomination.

11. Vicky Krieps- Phantom Thread
Formerly Ranked #10

The breakout star of Phantom Thread, playing opposite of Daniel Day-Lewis. However, most of the focus is still on him rather than her.

Best Director
The Locks

1. Guillermo del Toro- The Shape of Water

2. Martin McDonagh- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Formerly Ranked #5)

The Contenders
3. Christopher Nolan- Dunkirk (Formerly Ranked #2)
4. Greta Gerwig- Lady Bird (Formerly Ranked #6)
5. Jordan Peele- Get Out (Formerly Ranked #7)
6. Luca Guadagino- Call Me by Your Name (Formerly Ranked #4)
7. Denis Villeneuve- Blade Runner 2049 (Formerly Ranked #8)
8. Steven Spielberg- The Post (Formerly Ranked #3)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson- Phantom Thread

The Longshots

10. Dee Rees- Mudbound

11. Sean Baker- The Florida Project

12. Joe Wright- Darkest Hour

13. Aaron Sorkin- Molly's Game

As for the director rankings, well I'm playing it safe with my 5 predictions being the 5 DGA nominees. Even though Three Billboards seems like a Best Picture frontrunner at the moment, I can picture a split again like the last two years with Shape of Water getting Director. Nolan has been nominated at the DGA three times before (Memento, Dark Knight, and Inception) but has still never gotten an Oscar nomination for Best Director so I'm hesitant to call him a lock. The Post seems to be running out of steam while Villeneuve got a boost from getting a directing nod for Blade Runner. Hard to say.


Best Picture Predictions
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Lady Bird
5. Get Out
6. Call Me By Your Name
7. The Post
8. The Big Sick
9. I, Tonya

Best Original Screenplay

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Lady Bird

3. The Shape of Water

4. Get Out

5. The Big Sick

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Call Me By Your Name

2. Molly's Game

3. The Disaster Artist

4. Mudbound

5. Logan