2017 Academy Awards: Final Predictions for Winners in all 24 categories

So the Academy Awards are tonight so here are my final predictions. These are ranked in terms of likelihood of winning, not my personal rankings.

Best Actor

1. Casey Affleck- Manchester by the Sea

2. Denzel Washington- Fences

3. Ryan Gosling- La La Land

4. Andrew Garfield- Hacksaw Ridge

5. Viggo Mortensen- Captain Fantastic

Casey Affleck has been largely sweeping here, but he's not a 100% lock. His sexual harassment allegations from 2009 have been brought back into the spotlight due to his increased Oscar attention. How much this will affect voters is unclear.
In addition, Denzel Washington surprised everyone by winning the SAG award. To put this into perspective, it's been 13 years since someone won the SAG lead actor award and didn't win the Best Actor Oscar. That said, trends do get broken. Last year, The Big Short was the first film in a decade to win the PGA award but not win Best Picture. 2 years ago, Birdman was the first film in over 30 years to win Best Picture without a Best Editing nomination. So I think Affleck will break the SAG trend. Denzel Washington has already won 2 Oscars and Manchester by the Sea got more Oscar love than Fences (6 nominations including Director vs. 4 nominations). Gosling is in the Best Picture frontrunner, but I really don't think it'll go for him and Andrew Garfield and Viggo Mortensen should be happy just to be nominated.

Best Actress

1. Emma Stone- La La Land

2. Isabelle Huppert- Elle

3. Natalie Portman- Jackie

4. Meryl Streep- Florence Foster Jenkins

5. Ruth Negga- Loving

Ruth Negga should be honored just to be nominated, Meryl Streep will get nominated for anything, but she has to work a bit harder to actually win. Natalie Portman was once the frontrunner for Jackie, but since she lost the Golden Globe to Isabelle Huppert, that hype has largely died down (plus she won just 6 years ago, which may make voters hesitant to reward her again so quickly). It's between Emma Stone and Isabelle Huppert. Isabelle Huppert was somewhat I once didn't even predict to be nominated but she's increased her hype since her Golden Globe win and even beat out Natalie Portman for a Spirit award last night (Emma Stone wasn't eligible). Still, I'm giving the edge to Stone. She's in the Best Picture frontrunner, she won SAG, she's more popular in the U.S.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali- Moonlight

2. Dev Patel- Lion

3. Lucas Hedges- Manchester by the Sea

4. Jeff Bridges- Hell or High Water

5. Michael Shannon- Nocturnal Animals

Michael Shannon's nomination was shocking, beating out his co-star Aaron Taylor-Johnson who won a Golden Globe for his performance. But that's good news for Mahershala Ali, since one of his biggest threats for the Oscar wasn't even nominated. The closest person to beating Ali would be Dev Patel in Lion, who won the BAFTA for his performance. However, I think the passion for Moonlight is enough that Ali should still be the winner.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis- Fences

2. Michelle Williams- Manchester by the Sea

3. Naomie Harris- Moonlight

4. Nicole Kidman- Lion

5. Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures

The safest bet of the acting nominees. Viola Davis is sweeping everywhere. Michelle Williams has the tiniest chance, but I doubt it. She's 16 years younger than Davis. I'm sure Academy voters realize she'll have more opportunities. The other 3 definitely aren't winning.

Best Original Screenplay

1. La La Land (Damian Chazelle)

2. Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)

3. Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)

4. The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou)

5. 20th Century Women (Mike Mills)

First off, this is a pretty fantastic category, but this isn't about my opinion. La La Land is winning. It'd be really shocking if it didn't.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Moonlight (Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney)

2. Arrival (Eric Heisserer)

3. Fences (August Wilson)

4. Lion (Luke Davies)

5. Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi)

Moonlight attempted to run as an Original Screenplay, but its category submission was rejected by the Academy since it was based on an unpublished play. However, this was a blessing in disguise as Moonlight has no real serious competition in this category. Moonlight may not be winning Best Picture and Director, but the Academy will wanna reward Barry Jenkins with something.

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle- La La Land

2. Barry Jenkins- Moonlight

3. Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the Sea

4. Denis Villenueve- Arrival

5. Mel Gibson- Hacksaw Ridge

It's between Chazelle and Jenkins, interestingly enough both directors under 40 (rare for the Academy). Either would be a worthy winner in my opinion, but I think it's going to Chazelle. The direction of the opening scene alone is pretty spectacular and the Academy and numerous award circles have embraced La La Land more than any other film.

Best Picture

1. La La Land

2. Moonlight

3. Manchester by the Sea

4. Hidden Figures
5. Arrival

6. Hacksaw Ridge

7. Lion

8. Hell or High Water

9. Fences

Best Picture and Best Director tend to go hand in hand and I don't think this'll be an exception. Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea are the only possible spoilers. All of the others should be happy they were nominated, although Hidden Figures surprise SAG outstanding cast win was interesting. I talked about SAG trends early with the Best Actor category and it'll be worth mentioning here. It's been 21 years since a film won Best Picture without getting a SAG outstanding cast nomination (Braveheart). So this would be a major trend breaker. Of course, La LA Land isn't even close to an ensemble, with Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling being the only 2 without more than 10 minutes of screentime so it's not surprising it wasn't recognized by SAG. So I still think La La Land is a safe bet.


Other Predictions (without rankings)

Best Animated Feature: Zootopia
Best Cinematography: La La Land
Best Costume Design: Jackie
Best Editing: La La Land
Best Original Score: La La Land
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Best Production Design: Arrival
Best Original Song: La La Land (City of Stars)
Best Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Sound Mixing: La La Land
Best Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
Best Documentary Feature: O.J.: Made in America
Best Foreign Language Film: Toni Erdmann
Best Animated Short: Piper
Best Documentary Short: White Helmets
Best Live Action Short: Ennemis Interieurs

My favorite movies of 2016

So 2016 ended awhile ago, but better late than never.

Honorable mention: The Witch and Swiss Army Man, which are too difficult to rank. I also don't like including documentaries with feature films so outstanding documentaries including Cameraperson, Tickled, and Tower are not included in this list.

41. Hail, Caesar!

Hail, Caesar is one of the least accessible films by the Coen Brothers and definitely not one of their best, but it's still enjoyable, especially thanks to Alden Ehrenreich (who was just cast as a young Han Solo). His hilarious performance makes the film worth every penny I spent on it.

40. The Accountant

The Accountant rests on Ben Affleck's shoulders who fortunately makes the movie work by not taking a more hammy approach to his character, helping create a solid thriller.

39. Deepwater Horizon

One of two Peter Berg films to come out this year based on a tragic true story starring Mark Wahlberg as a working-class man who says goodbye to his wife in the morning as he intends to enjoy an ordinary day at work only for an explosion to change everything. But hey, it works.

38. Don't Breathe

Although I felt it collapsed a bit near the end, Don't Breathe largely makes the most of its high-concept plot.

37. Hush

A standard home-invasion film with one notable gimmick: the main character is deaf. While not flawless, Hush manages to bring some solid thrills out of this gimmick, thanks to the performances of its two leads and sympathetic protagonist.

36. Finding Dory

Finding Dory could've done more to separate itself from its predecessor, but the nostalgia worked and the film's sweet tone and hysterical voice acting made it worth the watch.

35. Midnight Special

One of two Jeff Nichols' films to come out this year, Midnight Special is incredibly light on exposition, but still manages to create an original and engaging tale with creative visuals and a beautiful score.

34. Deadpool

It's for a very specific audience, but Deadpool largely delivered on everything fans of the comic were hoping for. The script is crude and funny, the action is entertaining, and Ryan Reynolds is wonderful as the title character.

33. Paterson

Paterson is extremely simple as one might expect from a Jim Jarmusch film. Similarly, it also features a very humanistic lead performance from Adam Driver and very authentic dialogue that makes the film worth the watch.

32. Captain America: Civil War

Another day, another Marvel film, but this one's pretty damn good. Excellent action scenes, a morally complex story, and one of the best MCU villains ever thanks to Daniel Brühl, Civil War doesn't quite match up to The Winter Soldier (my favorite MCU film) but it's pretty close.

31. Snowden
Snowden is easily Oliver Stone's best film in a LONG time (not that that's saying much), tackling the film's complex real-world issues is an engaging way.

30. Jackie

The plot is short, spanning only a week, but Natalie Portman's excellent performance (not too mention a strong performance by the late John Hurt) and the stunning cinematography and costume design make Jackie feel like more than the standard biopic fare.

29. Hidden Figures

Hidden Figures comes off as a pretty standard feel-good film, but the strong performances and the script that sends moving messages without preaching greatly elevates the film into something really moving.

28. Hacksaw Ridge

The second best film about a devoutly Christian Andrew Garfield going to Japan during a period of violence, Hacksaw Ridge also serves as a solid comeback for director Mel Gibson.

27. Lion
Sure it's sentimental and baity, but the strong dual performance from Sunny Pawar and Dev Patel help transcend the film into something genuinely heartfelt.

26. Nocturnal Animals
Basically destined to be divisive, I still thought Nocturnal Animals benefits from the gorgeous cinematography, strong acting, and straightforward, but still engaging premise.

25. Zootopia

Zootopia is equal parts funny and thoughtful, with excellent voice acting and strong world-building.

24. 10 Cloverfield Lane
10 Cloverfield Lane succeeds largely due to its original premise and unpredictable script, but perhaps will be remembered most for having one of John Goodman's best performances

23. Eye in the Sky

Eye in the Sky portrays drone warfare in a morally ambiguous way that only serves to amp up the tension. The excellent performances from the ensemble including Helen Mirren, Aaron Paul, Alan Rickman, and Barkhad Abdi, help sell the film's complexity even more.

22. The Jungle Book

Jon Favreau's rendition of the Jungle Book is worth the viewing alone for the pure visual spectacle, but he even kept me entertained with its surprisingly complex script.

21. The Nice Guys

Shane Black returns to his "Kiss Kiss Bang Bang" roots in The Nice Guys, a dark crime comedy that manages to be both hilarious and messed up (but mostly the former).

20. Keanu

It was just a funny film.

19. Loving

Jeff Nichols took a huge risk when he took such an understated approach to the story of Richard and Mildred Loving, but it pays off, resulting in a nuanced story that never feels melodramatic, but creates an honest feeling between its two leads.


18. Hunt for the Wilderpeople
The great Taika Waititi hits it out of the park again with Hunt for the Wilderpeople. It's incredibly funny, heartwarming when it needs to be, and simply one of the most consistently entertaining and fun films of the year.

17. Elle

Isabelle Huppert gives one of the best performances of the year in Elle, while Paul Verhoeven proves that he's still capable of making original, daring movies. Not for the faint of heart though.

16. Kubo and the Two Strings
Kubo and the Two Strings features some of the best stop-motion animation I've ever seen and can appeal to a wide variety of audiences with its mix of humor and drama.

15. Other People

Jesse Plemons, Molly Shannon, and Bradley Whitford give tremendous performances in Other People, which uses its straightforward premise to create a really authentic look at familial relationships

14. Captain Fantastic
Captain Fantastic is yet another showcase of Viggo Mortensen's acting ability while actor Matt Ross (Big Love, Silicon Valley) proves that he's a name to look out for as a writer and director.

13. Fences
Fences does little to make itself more cinematic than its source material, but when you get career-best work from Denzel Washington and Viola Davis, it's hard to care. 

12, Arrival

Denis Villeneuve proves with Arrival that he's more than capable of handling Blade Runner 2049 with the films beautiful but non-flashy visuals, strong performances, and thoughtful script.

11. American  Honey
A 2 hour and 40 minute film about a bunch of young people selling BS prescription magazines shouldn't be this entertaining, but the performances by Sasha Lane and Shia Labeouf make it work far better than I would've ever expected. 

10. The Lobster

One of the most original films I've seen in years, The Lobster matches its originality with its terrific performances and cinematography.

9. Edge of Seventeen

Hailee Steinfeld gives her best performance since True Grit in this coming-of-age film that uses its very complex and relatable protagonist to tell its bittersweet yet incredibly engaging story

8. Manchester by the Sea

Manchester by the Sea takes a pretty straightforward story that could've been far more predictable and makes it surprising yet believable. And I think enough has been said about Casey Affleck's subtle yet emotional performance at this point.

7. Christine

An incredibly small indie film that came and went, Christine tells the tragic story of real-life reporter Christine Chubbuck, played by Rebecca Hall in an absolutely masterful performance.

6. 20th Century Women

20th Century Women has what could be Annette Bening's best performance to date, but the entire ensemble that includes Elle Fanning, Greta Gerwig, Lucas Jade Zumann and Billy Crudup all deserve a shoutout. In a perfect world, this film would've been a major contender for the SAG ensemble category.

5. Green Room

Jeremy Saulnier's follow-up to the acclaimed but underseen Blue Ruin surpassed my already high expectations. Featuring the best performance of Patrick Stewart's career as a pragmatic but ruthless Neo-nazi leader and one of the final performances of the late Anton Yelchin, Green Room is one of the most intense theater-going experiences I've had in a long time with its brutal but non-gratuitous violence and genuine scares. 

4. Hell or High Water

Once a TV actor on shows like Sons of Anarchy, screenwriter David McKenzie gave a near-perfect follow up to his last screenplay, Sicario. A modern-day Western heist film, Hell or High Water largely succeeds thanks to David McKenzie's strong screenplay and the film's commitment to creating fleshed out characters.

3. La La Land
Damian Chazelle's follow-up to Whiplash is a much different film. Lighter in tone but without sacrificing stakes or conflict, the film is beautifully shot and choreographed. Chazelle's direction of the various musical numbers really has to be seen to be fully understood.

2. Silence

Martin Scorcese's passion project may have been largely snubbed by the Academy, but that doesn't take away from the film's numerous achievements. Morally complex and flawlessly acted, Silence will go down as one of Scorcese's best films.

1. Moonlight
Moonlight succeeds on every level. A powerful screenplay, amazing acting, a haunting musical score, gorgeous cinematography. The story plays out in an interesting way that's neither predictable nor preachy and it remains one of the most memorable films I've seen in a long time.