My 2012 Oscar Predictions

Note: Although I refer to this as my 2012 Oscars, when I mention other years for movies, I mean the year that they were released in, not the year the Oscars honored that movie. E.G. "At the 2007 Oscars, Javier Bardem won an Oscar" means the films released in 2007 not the year of the award show.

Last Updated: January 17, 2012

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor is probably the hardest acting category to predict this year. There are simply so many worthy performances that it's a damn shame that the Academy can only nominated five. These are my predictions for the chances of everyone being nominated.

1. Christopher Plummer-Beginners

Plummer is basically a lock for a nomination. (Don't be too sure though, remember Jim Carey and the Truman Show). The real question is can he win? The answer is yes. Plummer is nearly a lock for a win as well. The hype is more towards Plummer as an actor than the film itself but it's hype nonetheless. He is turning 82 and has been getting snubbed by the Academy for years. It's more of a lifetime achievement award than a true Oscar win for a performance, but it's a well deserved one. Beginners is at the top of my netflix queue so I'll talk more about his performance later.

Update: Plummer was amazing in Beginners. Just tour de force. Deserves the Oscar

Update, January 17, 2012: A win at the Golden Globes and a nomination by the Baftas pretty much solidifies Christopher Plummer's decision as the frontrunner in this category.

2. Kenneth Branagh- My Week with Marilyn

Formerly ranked #3

Kenneth Branagh has been nominated for four Oscars, all in different categories (Best Actor, Best Director, Best Screenplay and Best Live Action short Film. His last nomination was for Best Adaptated Screenplay for Hamlet way back in 1996). He's an undeniable talent both behind the camera and in front of it and it seems that his performance as Sir Laurence Oliver in My Week with Marilyn is no exception. That said, I doubt he's going to win this year and the extreme buzz surround Michelle Williams' performance as the title character might lower his chances of even being nominated. That said, I still think he'll make the cut.

Update, January 4, 2011: He's definitely getting nominated. Getting nominated everywhere.

3. Jonah Hill- Moneyball

Formerly Ranked #5

I didnt think that Jonah Hill had a chance in hell with the Oscars until I saw that he recieved acting nominations from the golden globes and SAG's so maybe. And he gave a surprisingly very strong performance so I wouldn't complain.

Update, January 4, 2012: Yeah I think Hill will be getting his first Oscar nomination this year but no guarantees yet

Update: January 17, 2012: Nominations at the Baftas, Golden Globes AND Screen Actors Guild pretty much guarantees Hill's Oscar slot

4. Albert Brooks- Drive

Formerly Ranked #2

Despite being the most awesome film in the freaking goddamn universe, Albert Brooks is the only nomination that Drive is likely to get. That said, it's a well deserved nomination. Brooks has been nominated for only one Oscar way back in 1987 for the film Brodcast News. Albert Brooks's performance is a real tour de force. Known for his comedic roles in the past, (the younger generation probably remembers him as Marlin the clownfish in Finding Nemo) Brooks blew me away in his performance as Gangster Bernie Rose who proved himself to be one hell of a scary villain. In case you haven't noticed, 2007-2009 all had villains winning best supporting actor.

Javier Bardem as Anton Chigurh in No Country for old men

Heath Ledger as the Joker in The Dark Knight

Christoph Waltz as Hans Landa in Inglourious Basterds

Maybe Albert Brooks will bring this streak back

Update, January 17, 2012: Not being nominated at the Baftas or Screen Actors Guild is making me start to doubt Brook's chances which is quite unfortunate, but I still think(hope) that he'll make the cut.

5. Nick Nolte-Warrior

Formerly Ranked #4

A few weeks ago, I thought that Nolte was a definite contender. Maybe he even had a chance of winning. Though I admit that I haven't actually watched Warrior yet, I heard very high praise of Nolte's performance. Nolte has been nominated for 2 Oscars. His last nomination in 1998 for Affliction. He plays a former alcoholic turned Christian trying to reconnect with one of his sons and trains him in Mixed Martial Arts. Sadly, Nolte's hype has died down so it looks like he might not be nominated, but you never know. The Oscars can (pleasantly) surprise you sometimes.

Update, January 4, 2012: Though snubbed at the golden globes, nominations at the Screen Actors Guild and Brodcast Film Critics has increased Nolte's chances and now I think that he actually might get nominated. I saw Warrior and i must say, it's well deserved.

Update, January 17, 2012: I'm hoping against hope that Nolte will be nominated. He was not nominated at the Golden Globes or the Baftas. However, I don't think that any of the others listed below have enough recognition to fill his slot so I still think that he'll make the cut.

6. Armie Hammer- J. Edgar

Formerly Ranked #8

Armie Hammer gave a terrific performance in J. Edgar, but I think his chances of being nominated are slim, though not impossible. Hammer first caught my attention when he played The Winklevoss twins in last years The Social Network, but I think that J. Edgar is his true breakout role. His role as Edgar's right hand man must have been tough as he had to stand his ground against 3 time Oscar Nominee Leonardo Dicaprio, but not only did he stand his ground, he even outacted Leo in a couple scenes. This is yet another example of the leading actor outshining the supporting one, even if the supporting actor gave a strong performance. I don't think Hammer will be nominated, but I'll be happy if he does.

Update, January 4, 2012: A nomination at the Screen Actors Guild increases his chances but I still don't think that he'll be nominated this year.

Update, January 17, 2012: Nothing's changed, but he seems to have slightly more award recognition than any of the others listed below so I pushed him up.

7. Patton Oswalt- Young Adult

Formerly Ranked #5

Out of these five, I'm thinking that Oswalt has the lowest chance of being nominated. Similar to Kenneth Branagh, I think that the performance from the lead actress (in this case Charlize Theron) might overshadow the other performances. Oswalt had a role on The King of Queens and voiced Remy the rat in the Disney Pixar film Ratatouille. He plays some guy who befriends Charlize Theron's bitch character. Doesn't sound very deep, but I hear that it's a terrific performance. We'll see.

Update: January 4, 2011: Oswalt got nominated at the Brodcast Film Critics awards but was not nominated at the golden globes or SAGS so an Oscar nomination might have to wait for Oswalt.

8. Andy Serkis- Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Formerly Ranked #9

Andy Serkis previously did motion capture work in films like Lord of the Rings (Gollum) and King Kong (the title character) but it's his work as ape leader Caesar in Planet of the Apes that's really gotten praise. His performance is done entirely through facial expressions which makes it even tougher. I don't expect him to be nominated this year but the performance will definitley grab the Academy's attention, perhaps giving him a better chance of getting nominated for a different film in a few years

Update, January 4, 2012: A nomination at the Brodcast Film Critics definitely makes Serkis a potential contender in the race but I still don't expect him to make the cut.

Update, January 17, 2012: No nominations from the Baftas, Golden Globes, or Screen Actors Guild but he's moved up a slot simply because his odds are still higher.

9. Viggo Mortensen- A Dangerous Method

Formerly Ranked #10

Viggo Mortensen is a terrific actor who sadly was never recognized by the Academy until 2007 for his performance in Eastern Promises. In a Dangerous Method, he plays famous psychoanalyst Sigmund Freud and the film explores his relationship with Dr. Carl Jung and some Russian chick. It seems like one with potential Oscar potential. It's directed by David Cronenberg who also directed Eastern Promises, but I don't think his performance is popular enough to make the cut.

Update, January 4, 2011: He just got a golden globe nomination but I'm not sure if that's enough. It should still increase his chances

10. Phillip Seymour Hoffman- The Ides of March

Formerly Ranked #15

Hoffman is a terrific Academy Award Winning Actor having won in 2005 for his tour de force performance in Capote. He's been nominated 3 times, his last nomination was in 2008 for his performance in Doubt. In Ides of March, he plays a Senior Campaign manager for a presidential candidate and one of the more sympathetic characters in the movie. He steals a lot of scenes besides the ones with Paul Giamatti where they both do equally amazing. That said, awards rely on hype and Ides isn't getting anywhere near as much hype as I would have expected, despite it's engaging script and performances.

Update, January 17, 2012: Hoffman's surprise nomination at the BAFTAS gives him a slightly higher chance of an Oscar nomination.

11. Jim Broadbent- The Iron Lady

Jim Broadbent is an Academy Award Winner, previously winning for his role in Iris in 2001. He hasn't been nominated since so perhaps this is his time. He plays the husband of Britains first female prime minister played by Meryl Streep and it's pretty common knowledge that the Academy loves films about British royalty (Elizabeth, The Queen, The King's Speech). So maybe he'll have a chance. That said, Meryl Streep is getting all of the spotlight for her performance so maybe not this year.

Update, January 17, 2012: Broadbent got a nomination at the BAFTAS, but that's the first nomination that he's gotten for this film....from any awards show. So I'm still doubting the oscar nom.

12. Max Von Sydow- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Formerly ranked #6

Like Plummer, Sydow is 82 and only has one Oscar nomination (for his performance in Pelle The Conquerer back in 1987). A few weeks ago i would have never guessed a nomination but his performance in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is getting a lot of hype. I know little about his role but I'm sure that his performance is wonderful. His odds of being nominated are near definite. Odds of winning? Less likely

Update, January 4, 2012: Not being nominated at the Brodcast film critics, Golden Globes, or Screen Actors Guild makes me doubt Sydow's chances. Too bad.

Update, January 17, 2012: Not nominated at the Baftas either. Tough luck. I really though this would be his year.

13. Brad Pitt- The Tree of Life

Formerly Ranked #12

I think that Brad Pitt is one of the best actors working today and I think it's unfair that people often times think of him as nothing more than a talentless prettyboy and focus more on his personal life than his career. Fight Club is my favorite movie of all time and Seven, 12 Monkeys, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button aren't far behind. Pitt dominates every role he plays no matter how much people try to hate on him. He's been nominated twice for 12 Monkeys (1995) and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008). I have The Tree of Life from Netflix right now and plan on watching it this week. He is apparently excellent in it. That said, it seems like he's far more likely to be nominated for his leading performance in Moneyball. If he happens to not make the cut for Moneyball (The Best Actor category also has a lot of great choices) then I'd be very shocked if he wasn't nominated here. The Tree of Life, despite it's best picture buzz, could end up like Terrence Mallick's last Oscar nominated film The Thin Red Line: A bunch of Oscar nominations including Best Picture but 0 Acting nominations.

Update: It's an excellent performance. Deserves more recognition.

14. Benedict Cumberbatch-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Formerly Ranked #13

It's hard to know with this guy. I hadn't even heard of him until about a month ago and he's not even being mentioned on most lists talking about this category yet Hitfix mentioned him (http://www.hitfix.com/galleries/2012-best-supporting-actor-contenders). They listed about nearly 20 possible choices for Best Supporting Actor and when they got to him they said "Simply, Cumberbatch is one of the few contenders this season that if he doesn't get in it's a travesty." His character assists Gary Oldman's character in finding a Russian mole in British intelligence. I don't think he'll be nominated but the comment from hitfix makes me really curious to watch the movie.

15. Ben Kingsley-Hugo

Formerly Ranked #14

Ben Kingsley won an Oscar for playing Ghandi over 25 years ago. He's since had 3 more nominations. Kingsley frequently switches between great movies (Ghandi, Sexy beast) to awful movies (Bloodrayne, a sound of thunder). but Hugo is apparently one of his best performances in years so a nomination seems very plausible.

Update, June 4, 2012: Nevermind. Ben Kingsley's not getting nominated at ANYTHING. Maybe another year.

16. Paul Giamatti- The Ides of March

Formerly Ranked #14

"I did NOT order buffalo wings."

Paul Giamatti is so badass that he can execute a line like that without breaking a sweat.

Paul Giamatti has one Oscar nomination for his performance in Cinderella Man, but he should probably have more. I thought that this might have been the film but as said above it's lost hype. He won't be nominated but it's a great performance that's worth mentioning.

17. Ezra Miller- We need to Talk about Kevin

Formerly Ranked #15

Ezra Miller is the 2nd youngest person on this list and although his odds of being nominated are slim, he's still better than you. Miller plays the title character, the disturbed son of Tilda Swinton and John C. Reilly. His performance has been praised as creepy and effective and although he probably wont be nominated, this'll surely kick off his career.

18. Alan Rickman- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II

Formerly Ranked #16

His role was small but nonetheless impactful. Alan Rickman has been blowing my mind since I saw hm as Hans Gruber in Die Hard. He really is amazing and it's a shame that he's not a bigger name in America. His odds of being nominated for Harry Potter are low. It is a fantasy film, but Rickman shall be remembered forever as the greatest Die Hard villain the world has ever known.

19. Ralph Fiennes- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II

Formerly Ranked #17

All of the nose jokes aside, Ralph Fiennes played one hell of a villain who I'm sure will be remembered in movie history in the years to come. He was the baddest mother since Black Dynamite. And 95% of people agree that Fiennes should have won an Oscar for Schindler's List instead of Tommy Lee Jones. The Academy is yet to make up for that snub. His odds of a nomination are tiny but don't count him out yet. This is Voldemort. He's not a pussy.

20. Jeremy Irons- Margin Call

New Candidate

Jeremy Irons won an Academy Award about 20 years ago for Reversal of Fortune. It's his sole nomination to date. And honestly, in the last couple years, Irons has basically vanished with few noteworthy movies. This all changed with Margin Call. Irons doesn't come in until late in the movie, but he dominates the film. He plays a CEO who's willing to screw over a lot of people to save his investment company. He hasn't been this strong in years.

21. Christoph Waltz- Carnage

Formerly Ranked #18

He's been praised as the high point in Water for Elephants as the psycho circus leader but he has no shot there. His role as Kate Winslet's husband in the dark comedy Carnage is another story. Waltz got an unexpected breakout role in Inglourious Basterds as a sadistic yet charming nazi officer where he won an Academy Award, among other honors. Since Carnage is about 4 people talking, it's probably a showcase performance for it's 4 stars. (Kate Winslet, Jodie Foster. Christoph Waltz, John C. Reilly). Though Waltz probably wont get a nod, its nice to see him prove that Inglourious Basterds was no fluke.

22. John Hawkes- Martha Marcy May Marlene

Formerly Ranked #19

I had never even heard of John Hawkes until last year when he got an unexpected Oscar nomination for Winter's Bone now he might have a second chance of getting nominated for his performance as a crazy cult leader. Odds aren't high and Elizabeth Olsen is getting most of the attention, but he got a surprise nomination last year. Maybe he'll do it again this year.

23. John C. Reilly- Carnage/Cedar Rapids/We need to Talk about Kevin

Formerly Ranked #22

In my opinion, John C. Reilly is one of the most underrated actors around. He's been in the silliest comedies and the darkest dramas. Truly one of the most versatile actors in hollywood. Way back in January, John gave a great performance in the comedy Cedar Rapids where he was recently nominated for a satellite award. That said, his Oscar chances fair better with Dark comedy Carnage, where he plays Jodie Foster's husband and the creepy thriller We need to talk about Kevin as the husband of concerned mother Tilda Swinton. Swinton has a far better chance of a nomination as do Foster, Kate Winslet, and Christoph Waltz for Carnage. Reilly was nominated once in 2003 for Chicago. (3 of his movies, Chicago, Gangs of New york, and the Hours were all nominated for best picture that year). I'd love to see John get nominated again, hopefully win someday, but that day will have to wait.

24. Corey Stoll- Midnight in Paris

Formerly Ranked #23

Not sure about this guy. I saw one article actually predicting him to win the Oscar and a whole bunch not mentioning him at all. Only proves how unpredictable this category is. That said, he's another actor who I hadn't heard of until this year so at the very least, Midnight in Paris should be remembered as his breakout role playing famous American author Ernest Hemingway. Many people have called it a fantastic performance but I still think his chances of a nomination are small.

Update: After watching the film, I gotta say I was impressed by Corey Stoll but I still don't expect him to get nominated

25. Ryan Gosling- Crazy, Stupid, Love

Formerly Ranked #24

Gosling has proven himself to be the greatest actor in the universe's history. Women go crazy over him and men remember him as that guy from the notebook that fcked Rachel McCadams. He just recieved a golden globe nomination for his performance in Crazy, Stupid, Love but I'd say that his best chance of a nomination would be for his tour de force performance in Drive.

26. Kevin Spacey- Margin Call

New Candidate

To me, Spacey was the main character, but he's being promoted as a supporting actor.

Spacey's age may be starting to show, but his acting is as strong as ever. Spacey's performance in the Wall Street Drama Margin Call is one of his best performances in year. However, even if he did get nominated by some miracle, he wouldn't win. And Spacey has never "lost" an Oscar. He's been nominated twice: Best Supporting Actor, The Usual Suspects (1995) and Best Actor, American Beautiy (1999). He won both times.

27. Jude Law- Contagion

New Candidate

Jude Law was on a role when he was younger. At the age of 31, he had already received 2 Oscar nominations (The Talented Mr. Ripley and Cold Mountain) and he's still been in some good movies but you could definitely argue that none of his performances are quite as good as they were when he was younger. Well Contagion is one of his best and most energetic performances to date. He plays a freelance journalist who blogs on the internet about a deadly virus and gains a large wave of support.

28. Thomas Horn- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Formerly Ranked #26

Horn is the youngest person here. Though he plays the main character and is being promoted by the producers as a "best actor" nominee, he doesnt have a chance in hell of being nominated there but Supporting actor could be a different story (Like Haille Steinfeld last year for True Grit). Of course until Warner Bros. stops doing the "best actor" for your consideration and switch to supporting actor. he doesnt have a chance in hell of being nominated.

29. Tom Hanks- Extremely Loud and Inccredibly Close

Formerly Ranked #27

Tom Hanks is a terrific actor with 5 Oscar nominations and 2 wins. That said, his last nomination was in 2000 for Cast Away. Thats not to say that Hanks hasnt still been strong. Since Cast Away he's been in Road to Peridition, Toy Story 3, and Charlie Wilson's war. Hanks' character sets the story as his death on 9/11 sends our protagonist (his son) on a journey to find the lock to a missing key. His performance isnt a big highlight according to most but people might think "Hey Hanks hasnt been nominated for a while."

30. Oscar Issac- Drive

Formerly Ranked #28

I'm honestly surprised that he's not getting more talk. Oscar Issac gave a great performance in Drive as Standard, the husband of Irene (Carey Mulligan). Standard is an ex-convict who's fresh out of prison and trying to go straight but finds himself stuck when gangsters threaten his family. It's nice to see Standard portrayed as sympathetic and likable instead of the evil ex-convict husbands that we usually see. He gave a great, quiet performance though it's not as good as Brooks or Gosling.

31. Don Cheadle- The Guard

New Candidate

Don Cheadle is such a terrific actor. It's quite shocking that he only has one Oscar nomination (for Hotel Rwanda in 2004). His performance as an FBI agent partnered with an Irish cop (Brenden Gleeson) has been praised for the chemistry between the 2 actors. However, it's Gleeson who's getting much more recognition for the movie

32. Michael Fassbender- X-Men: First Class

New Candidate

Michael Fassbender gave by far the best performance in X-Men First Class but it's a superhero movie and he'll probably get ignored in favor of Shame.

33. Matthew Lillard- The Descendants

New Candidate

Matthew Lillard's role is small but surprisingly quite strong. Best known as that guy from Scream and Shaggy from the live action Scooby Doo movies, Lillard gives a very well executed performance in The Descendants despite the fact that it seems that nobody has noticed this but me.

34. Charlie Day- Horrible Bosses

Formerly Ranked #29

Ok, so maybe his character wasnt much different from his character on it's always sunny but Charlie Day still gave the funniest performance of the year. That said, he didn't get a "comedy" nomination at the Golden globes so he's not getting an oscar nomination.

35. Michael Peña- The Lincoln Lawyer

Formerly Ranked #30

Peña has less than 10 minutes of screen time in The Lincoln Lawyer but damn he's good. As a convicted rapist who may or may not be guilty, Peña immediately gives the audience sympathy for his character and is one of the best things about the underappreciated movie

36. Jamie Foxx- Horrible Bosses

Formerly Ranked #31

I had to do it. No, Jamie Foxx will NOT be nominated for Horrible Bosses. Foxx is an Oscar winner already with 2 nominations under his belt and this certainly isn't his best performance to date, but goddamn Foxx was goddamn hilarious in this movie. Holy shit. Amazing. In fact, he may have been better than Charlie Day.

37. Michael Fassbender's Penis- Shame

New Candidate

Fassbender's penis apparently does a terrific job in a highly praised movie that I'll never see. So much that the producers of the film are even promoting his performance. I've never seen penis' work before but I believe that he's also in the Michael Fassbender film Hunger. I can't wait to see what Penis and his best friend Michael have in store next. It's a shame that he won't be nominated at the oscars.

Best Supporting Actress

This category is considerably easier to predict as the winner is already basically handed to us. That said, there were several strong performances this year.

1. Octavia Spencer- The Help

Who the hell is Octavia Spencer? I surely cant be the only one who would have said this 5 months ago? It's honestly quite amazing that she's transformed from an unknown to a potential Oscar winner overnight. In The Help she plays Minnie, the smart, sassy maid/cook. It's an excellent performance. Her nomination seems almost like a definite. The question is if she's gonna win the trophy of a man with a sword and no genitals. We'll see

Update, January 17, 2012, Nominations are everywhere and she's WON at the Golden Globes and Broadcast film critics. She's already won pretty much

2. Jessica Chastain- The Help

Back up: The Tree of life or Take Shelter

Formerly Ranked #6

It's sad to not include Jessica Chastain in my top 5 but I don't think she'll be nominated this year even if she SHOULD be nominated. Jessica Chastain was previously not very known having only appeared in 2 movies. This year she was in 6 (list movies). She's given 3 acclaimed performances for 3 very different movies all in the supporting actress category. That said

In The Help, she plays a naive but well intended rich woman who hires Octavia Spencer's character as a maid/cook. It's actually a really good performance, but her performance will likely be overshadowed by Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer. UPDATE: Due to her Golden globe nomination, it looks like she might have a chance with The Help after all.

In Take Shelter, she plays the wife to Michael Shannon who's either super crazy or super smart. But Shannon's performance is getting far more attention so unlikely.

The tree of life seems the most likely. It's not exactly a performance piece but she does a terrific job as the kind mother of young sean penn and wife of asshole brad pitt. Pitt's performance is also getting hype but i think tree of life is her best chance

Update, January 4, 2012: She's definitely getting nominated for The Help. I would have preferred a nomination for The Tree of Life, but The Help is great too.

This year she also starred in The Debt, Coriolanus, and Texas Killing Fields. The Debt and Coriolanus have received positive reviews from film critics but she's unlikely to get many awards for either of them.

3. Berenice Bejo- The Artist

Formerly Ranked #4

Bernice Bejo is another actress who I had never heard of until recently. Despite her co-star Jean Dujard getting most of the oscar buzz, I'd be surprised to see her not get nominated this year. Though The Artist isnt playing anywhere in Washington state, Im pretty sure that the film is a romance and thus both actors rely on each other to a certain extent and thus give equally strong (or weak) performances. Plus it's a slient film and displaying emotions without speaking has gotta take some serious skill. But this could end up like last years Blue Valentine. Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams star in a "romance", both gave critically acclaimed performances but only Williams received an Oscar nomination.

Update, January 17, 2012: Nominations at the Screen Actors Guild, BAFTAS, Golden Globes ect. have confirmed her slot as best supporting actress. The weird thing though is that the BAFTAS nominated her as a lead actress making me wonder where she'll end up being nominated.

#4. Melissa McCarthy- Bridesmaids

Formerly Ranked #6

If someone asked me a few weeks ago if Melissa would be nominated, I would have said "I'm pretty sure that the Academy doesn't give a damn about Bridesmaids." Now I'm having second thoughts. McCarthy just won an Emmy a few months ago for her role in Mike and Molly. Is she gonna get nominated for the silver screen now. I was actually shocked by McCarthy's performance in Bridesmaids. She took a rather cliche character (the funny fat person) and made her funny and lovable. She's been getting several acting nominations including the Brodcast film Critics and the Screen Actors Guild. She'll be fighting with Shailene Woodley for that 5th slot.

Update, January 17, 2012: Now she's nominated at the BAFTAS. She's definitely getting nominated now. Awesome.

5. Janet Mcteer- Albert Nobbs

Formerly Ranked #2

Early expectations for a strong supporting performance were focused on Mia Wachowski but it's Janet Mcteer who's ended up getting the attention. A nomination for Albert Nobbs seems very plausible though we can never be too sure. She received one Oscar nomination over 10 years ago so i guess it's about time.

Update, January 17, 2012: Not nominated at the BAFTAS or BFCA has diminished (but not destroyed) her chances.

6. Shailene Woodly- The Descendants

Formerly Ranked #4

Shailene is the only predicted nominee under 35 so it's possible that her young age will help her even more as it's nice to have a fresh young face in a crowd of "old" people. Best known for her work on the tv series "The Secret Life of the American Teenager," Woodly has shown true acting chops in her performance as George Clooney's daughter. It's a surprisingly strong performance that I would highly recommend seeing. A win is unlikely though this category is known for upsets so who knows. The only problem is that Clooney's performance is so heavily acclaimed with many people predicting a win that he might overshadow her chances. Nonetheless, she's 20 years old and has a long career ahead of her.

Update, January 4, 2012: It looks to be a battle for the 5th slot between Melissa Mccarthy and Woodley but I think that Woodley will make the slot.

Update, January 17, 2012: She wasn't nominated at the Screen Actors Guild or the BAFTAS so she's in an uphill battle, but it's no longer with Melissa McCarthy, but rathe Janet Mcteer.

7. Carey Mulligan- Shame/Drive

Formerly Ranked #8

Carey Mulligan has been in two highly acclaimed movies this year. In Shame, she plays the sister to Michael Fassbender, a sex addict. In Drive, she plays a single mother surrounded by criminals and killers. She gave a great performance in Drive, though I wouldn't call it Oscar worthy. She has a higher chance with Shame. Her performance in Shame has recieved high applause though Michael Fassbender has a better chance of a nomination than she does.

Update, January 17, 2012: She's got a Broadcast Film critics nomination for Shame and a surprise BAFTA nomination for Drive so it's hard to know where she stands now, except that her chances went up a slight bit.

8. Vanessa Redgrave- Coriolanus

Formerly Ranked #7

Vanessa Redgrave is a 74 year old six time Oscar nominee winning once for Julia over 30 years ago. Her last nomination was for Howard's End, nearly 20 years ago. The odds of her winning again are small but you can never have too many nominations. She's an old lady now and her performance in Ralph Fiennes' Corialonaus is highly acclaimed. And being old can sometimes help you get one last hurrah before moving on.

Update, January 4, 2012: It seems that Redgrave has been mostly forgotten about. Maybe next year

Update, January 17, 2012: No nominations at the BAFTAS, SAGS, Golden Globes, or Critics choice. Not happening

9. Jodie Foster- Carnage

Formerly Ranked #10

Jodie Foster was an Oscar nominee at 14 (Taxi Driver) and had won 2 Oscars at 29 (The Accused, The Silence of the Lambs). In other words, she's far superior to you in every way. That said, her last nomination was in 1994 for Nell. Now she might come back into the spotlight as a mother discussing a fight that her son had with another kid. The Golden globe nomination will certainly gain attention.

10. Kate Winslet- Carnage

Formerly Ranked #11

Kate Winslet finally won an Oscar in 2008 after 6 nominations. I think she has a decent chance of scoring a nomination. She plays opposite Jodie Foster as the mother of the other son in the fight. She is Christoph Waltz' wife in the film. By the way, she's 19 years younger than him. Why is nobody mentioning this? Oh yeah, it's a Roman Polanski film. Of course he would cast younger girls to be with older men. hahaha.

11. Sandra Bullock- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Formerly Ranked #7

This is Bullock's first film since she won an (arguably undeserved) Oscar for the Blind Side. She plays the widow of the deceased Tom Hanks who does stuff like comfort her son Thomas Horn and cry. I'm sure it's a good performance, but it doesn't sound very Oscar worthy. That said, the Academy tends to go for stuff like this

Update, January 4, 2012: Nobody is talking about her.

12. Judi Dench- J. Edgar/My Week with Marilyn

Formerly Ranked #14

I'm shocked to not see everyone's favorite old british actress Judi Dench on many predicition lists. Her performance in J. Edgar as Edgar's high expectations mother is fantastic and her best work in years. In the last 12 years, she's recieved 6 Oscar nominations but why stop now. She was terrific. I haven't heard much about her in My week with Marilyn but it's worth mentioning since it's an "Oscar" film and she's in it.

Update, January 17, 2012: A BAFTA nomination is a boost up but she hasn't been nominated anywhere else.

13. Mélanie Laurent- Beginners

Formerly Ranked #12

Laurent first became famous in America for her performance as lead character Shoshana Dreyfuss in Inglourious Basterds. Her role as Ewan Mcgregor's love interest is incredibly strong, maybe even stronger than her performance in Inglourious Basterds.

Update, January 17, 2012: ok maybe it wasn't THAT strong

14. Anjelica Huston- 50/50

Formerly Ranked #13

Anjelica Huston has received positive reviews for her role as Joseph Gordon Levitt's mom in 50/50, including a nomination at the Spirit Awards, but she'll have to keep working if she wants to get an Oscar nomination.

15. Naomi Watts- J. Edgar

Formerly Ranked #14

I love Naomi Watts and I'm upset that she only has one Oscar nomination (21 Grams). She really deserved one for her performance in Fair Game last year. The only problem that I had with her in J. Edgar was that there wasn't enough of her. She did a great job when she was on screen though I'll admit that it wasn't the best performance in the film. Probably no nomination this year, but she might get nominated just to make up for not being nominated last year for Fair Game.

16. Marion Cottilard- Midnight in Paris

Formerly Ranked #13

Marion Cottilard won an Oscar in 2007 for her excellent performance in the little seen French film La Vie en Rose. She became more famous with mainstream audiences last year for her performance as Mal in Inception. Cottilard is beautiful and hard not to be won over with her irresistable charm and Midnight in Paris is no exception. Will it be enough to win her an Oscar nomination? We'll see.

17. Elle Fanning- Super 8

New Candidate

Elle Fanning, the younger sister of Dakota Fanning, gave a surprisingly strong performance in the science fiction film Super 8. At only 13 years old, she handled the dramatic scenes quite well and

18. Anna Kendrick-50/50

New Candidate

I first saw Anna Kendrick in the excellent indie dramedy Rocket Science but most people didn't know her until her Oscar nominated performance for Up in The Air was released. However, I'm not entirely convinced that the Academy is going to give a young actress a 2nd Academy Award nomination so quickly. Only Kate Winslet is allowed to get nominated repeatedly at a young age.

19. Jennifer Aniston- Horrible Bosses

Formerly Ranked #15

Aniston is incredibly attractive and her role in Horrible Bosses was wonderfully against type. She was the one boss that no straight man wanted to die. Oh by the way, she's incredibly attractive. Let's look at another picture.

Oh man. That is one attractive woman. You're a goddamn moron, Brad.

20. Kathy Bates- Midnight in Paris

Kathy Bates gives one of her best big screen performances in Midnight in Paris, portraying poet Gertrude Stein, who agrees to help edit Owen Wilson's novel in progress. I'm surprised that nobody is talking about it.

21. Liana Liberato- Trust

Formerly Ranked #16

Liberato is only 16 years old and shocked me when David Schwimmer's film Trust was released. Her performance as a young girl raped by a pedophile wasn't only strong for a teenager, but strong overall. Of course Trust has been completely forgotten despite being a great film so it's more likely to be Shailene Woodley as the young girl getting an Oscar nomination this year.

Best Actress

The Best Actress category is quite strong this year and although I have a predicted winner, I'd say that 4 of my 5 predicted nominees have a chance of winning the Oscar. I'll be interested to see how it goes down.

1. Meryl Streep- The Iron Lady

This name shouldn't surprise you.

I don't know if Ms. Streep gives the Academy voters naked pictures of herself or if she just performs sexual favors for them but the point is that the Academy loves her. She holds the record for the most Oscar nominations for an actor. She's been nominated 16 times in 32 years. She just has to star in a film to be nominated. However she has only 2 wins. Her last win was about 30 years ago for Sophie's choice. Her performance as Britains first female Prime minister Margaret Thatcher has met high acclaim although the film itself has received mixed reviews. Some think it might get her a long awaited 3rd Oscar. I wouldnt be surprised if she won, but my money is still on Viola Davis.

Update, January 17, 2012: A surprise win at the Golden Globes make me think that this just might be Streep's year.

2. Viola Davis- The Help

Formerly Ranked #1

Viola Davis' performance in The Help has received high acclaim and for good reason. Her performance is very real. She's a human being, not a character. She plays a middle aged black maid in 1960s Mississippi and nails the role perfectly. Davis was previously nominated for her 8 minute role in Doubt in 2008. A nomination is a no-brainer and although she has some tough competition with winning the gold, I think she'll emerge victorious. Davis is an astounding actress and I'm glad to see her get more recognized.

Update, January 17, 2012: Not winning at the Golden Globes makes me question her chances, which is unfortunate, because I really want her to win.

3. Michelle Williams- My week with Marilyn

Michelle Williams started off on the teen drama tv show Dawson's Creek but has since become a highly acclaimed film star. She's only 31 years old but has been nominated twice already. Some argue that she was snubbed for Brokeback Mountain (Rachel Weisz won for The Constant Gardner). Others think that she should have won for Blue Valentine (Natalie Portman won for Black Swan). Perhaps her highly acclaimed performance as 60s movie star and icon Marilyn Monroe will finally get her the gold. I mean watching the trailer, it seems like she's practically begging for an Oscar. Plus she appears to have at least partial nudity in the film and she had nude scenes in both Brokeback Mountain and Blue Valentine.

Update, January 17, 2012: She won a golden globe but she cheated. Playing a depressed addict does not make your movie a comedy or musical. It makes it a drama. She's still guaranteed a nomination slot. She's getting nominations everywhere

4. Tilda Swinton- We need to talk about Kevin

I loved Swinton's Oscar winning performance in Michael Clayton and it's great to see that her post-oscar career is remaining strong. In We need to talk about Kevin, Swinton plays a mother becoming increasingly concerned over the malvolent behavior of her son. Go back a couple weeks and I would have said no to Swinton being nominated. Now I think she might have a chance with nominations from the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, and Broadcast Film Critics and from what I hear, it's well deserved. However, out of my 5 predicted nominees, I'd say that she's the one who definitely WON'T win the Oscar.

Update, January 17, 2012: Definitely getting nominated

5. Glenn Close- Albert Nobbs

"Hey Alex, you dumb shit. Why do you have a guy in the Best Actress category."

That's no guy. That's Glenn Close. She's just a bit more masculine.

"That's Glenn Close? What the fuck???" *Head explodes*

Glenn Close was on a role in the 80s. She scored FIVE nominations in SEVEN years but didnt win anything. After that she died down a bit but then switched to television. She currently stars on Damages where she's won 2 Emmys and I must say, she is incredible on the show. Anyway, Albert Nobbs looks to be her big comeback to the big screen. It would be Close's first nomination in 23 years. She plays a woman in England in the 1900s pretending to be a man in order to pass by. Her Golden Globe nomination and Screen Actors Guild nomination only increases her chances of getting nominated at the Oscars and since she's overdue she might even win.

Update, January 17, 2012: Glenn Close has the biggest chance of being left out as she wasn't nominated at the BAFTAS or Broadcast Film Critics, but I'm still thinking that she's a big enough star with a good enough performance to be nominated.

6. Rooney Mara- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Formerly Ranked #7

I had already seen miss Mara in the Nightmare on Elm Street reboot and The Social Network (where she played Mark Zuckerberg's ex-girlfriend). However, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will be remembered as her breakout performance. Mara had big shoes to fill as her role was previously played by Noomi Rapace 2 years ago in the Swedish adaptation of the same name. Rapace was outstanding but Mara was as good as, if not better than Rapace. She becomes Lisbeth and the audience falls in love with her. It's truly a deserving performance and the golden globe nomination will help but i dont think she'll make the cut.

January 23, 2012 update: The new acclaim that the film is receiving will certainly help, but I don't think that Mara will quite make the cut this year, which is unfortunate

7. Charlize Theron- Young Adult

Formerly Ranked #6

Everyone's favorite white South African actress Charlize Theron first become truly popular when she won an Oscar for Monster when she made herself look super ugly. Then she got nominated again 2 years later for some movie nobody saw. I originally predicted her to be nominated instead of Tilda Swinton but now I'm not sure. In the Dramedy Young Adult, Theron plays the biggest bitch on the planet looking for her now married high school sweetheart. It's very against type for her and she's secured a golden globe nomination as well as a nomination from the Brodcast film Critics but will it be enough to secure a 3rd Oscar nomination?

8. Elizabeth Olsen- Martha Marcy May Marlene

Formerly Ranked #7

Elizabeth Olsen is the more talented younger sister of Mary Kate and Ashley Olsen who's broken out this year in the psychological drama Martha Macy May Marlene. Olsen plays a young woman who gets involved with a dangerous cult. I originally predicted Olsen to get nominated but her lack of nominations at the Screen Actors guild and Golden globes makes her chances seem less likely but the fact that she's becoming famous now should still count for something

10. Leila Hatami- A Seperation

Formerly Ranked #9

The Iranian film A Seperation is little known but everyone who has seen it is praising the shit out of it. It's in the top 100 on IMDB and it's receiving the golden globe nomination for Best foreign language film. It also seems like it's pretty much guaranteed to win both the golden globe and the Oscar for best foreign language film. And I believe that one Iranian actress has ever been nominated for an Oscar (Shohreh Aghdashloo for House of Sand and Fog) so that could also increase her chances.

11. Keira Knightley- A Dangerous Method

Formerly Ranked #10

A Dangerous Method has received high praise for it's performances including Keria Knightley's role as a Russian patient being analyzed by Dr. Carl Jung (Michael Fassbender). Yet, Fassbender and Viggo Mortensen's performances as Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung seem to be getting much more attention, so I wouldn't count on it.

12. Kristen Wiig- Bridesmaids

New Candidate

Wiig wasn't really on the radar until recently, as Bridesmaids has found itself becoming more and more popular. She's secured herself a Golden Globe nomination and if she's lucky could get an Oscar nomination too but Melissa McCarthy probably has a better chance of a nomination than she does.

13. Olivia Colman- Tyrannosaur

Formerly Ranked #11

The little known Tyrannosaur has been getting high praise for the performance of Olivia Colman. Colman plays a Christian charity shop worker trying to help a violent man redeem himself. She has receieved several award nominations, most notably a Special Jury prize win at the Sundance film festival.

14. Adepero Oduye- Pariah

Formerly Ranked #12

Adepero Odoye previously played a crack smoker in one of my favorite films Half Nelson back in 2006. Her lead role in Pariah only shows how far she's gotten. Pariah is about a Brooklyn teenager slowly embracing her identity as a lesbian. The performance has been highly acclaimed and there has also been "For Your Consideration" promotion for her nomination.

15. Michelle Yeoh- The Lady

Formerly Ranked #13

Malaysian-Chinese actress Michelle Yeoh is best known for her roles in films like Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Sunshine. In The Lady she plays real life pro-democracy Burmese activist and Noble Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi. Her performance in The Lady got her a nomination for Best Actress at the Satellite Awards so she's got to count for something. Though odds are low, some argue that the never nominated actress should have been nominated for the critically acclaimed Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.

16. Mia Wasikowska- Jane Eyre

Formerly Ranked #14

Though there may be a few too many Jane Eyre adaptations, this one is considered to be one of the best. Mia Wasikowska was previously known for her lead role in Tim Burton's Alice in Wonderland and supporting role in The Kids are All Right, but her performance here is a far bigger breakout. Too bad it came out in March. The Academy tends to have a bad memory.

17. Rachel Weisz- The Whistleblower

Formerly Ranked #15

Academy Award Winner Rachel Weisz stars in The Whistleblower, a true story about a woman who attempts to reveal that U.S. Private military company in Bosnia is involved in sexual slavery with children. Her performance has gotten great reviews from critics and viewers alike.

18. Emma Stone-The Help

Those who haven't seen The Help are probably thinking "Hey what about Emma Stone? Why is nobody talking about her? Isn't she the main character?" That's the funny thing about The Help. It's a terrific movie with great performances and a dull protagonist. The pointless scenes involving Emma Stone and her boyfriend made me want to throw a hamster off a ledge. I don't give a shit. I wanna see more Viola Davis, Jessica Chastain, Octavia Spencer. They're the interesting characters with interesting stories.

That said, The Help is getting serious Best Picture buzz so it would be pretty ridiculous to not include the film's main character on the list, even if all of the other actors are far more worthy of recognition.

19. Maria Bello- Beautiful Boy

Formerly Ranked #16

Bello's performance in Beautiful Boy is emotional, engaging, excellent, and totally forgotten.

20. Emily Blunt- The Adjustment Bureau

Formerly Ranked #16

Emily Blunt may have given her best performance to date in The Adjustment Bureau, a film that came out in February and has been long forgotten. Though the film's philosophical themes could have been expanded a bit, the chemistry between Blunt and her co-star Matt Damon was impeccable so I had to include her on the list even if it's a lost cause.

Best Actor

This is always a big one. Every year we have our mix of big hollywood actors to smaller stars gaining new fame. This is no exception and we certainly have a strong lineup and I'm interested as to how it'll go down. My list is quite large in this category, but I'll admit that some of these guys are lost causes.

1. George Clooney- The Descendants

Clooney first gained fame for his role on the early seasons of the television show ER but in more recent years has become known as a hollywood leading man.

George Clooney seems to have some weird thing with getting an Oscar nomination every 2 years. He receieved his first Oscar (and nomination) for his supporting role in Syriana in 2005. He was nominated again in 2007 for his performance in Michael Clayton. His last performance was 2 years ago for his performance in Up in The Air. So 2 years have past so naturally Clooney has to bring in another critically acclaimed performance, but I won't lie. A nomination would be well deserved. And Clooney is dominated most of the awards show but it'll depend on the SAG's, Bafta's, and Golden globes to determine whether or not he'll win, but right now I'm thinking that he will. Clooney's performance is quite remarkable and if he wins hopefully he'll give a better speech than his controversial Oscar speech for Syriana.

Update, January 17, 2012: A win at the Golden Globes and nominees at the BAFTAS. It's looking good for Mr. Clooney.

2. Jean Dujardin- The Artist

39 year old French actor Jean Dujardin has recently found fame in America for his performance in the black and white silent film The Artist. Dujardin plays a silent film actor in 1920s hollywood who finds himself losing fame as "talkies" are being introduced. The performance has received huge acclaim especially since his performance in based entirely on facial expressions instead of dialogue. He definitely has a chance of taking the Oscar but it'll be a tough battle against a star like Clooney.

Update, January 17, 2012: Dujardin's golden globe win proves that he's a definite contender, but I think that he might go home empty due to Clooney's star power.

3. Brad Pitt- Moneyball

Pitt is extrodinary in Moneyball giving a performance that is subtle and avoids taking a traditional "Oscar bait" direction. Pitt plays Oakland A's manager Billy Beane who devises a strategy to build a strong time on a small budget, but this is not just some sports movie. This is a truly fantastic drama and Pitt's performance is fantastic. He doesn't just have one Oscar-worthy scene, he has several and he might even get an Oscar win in his future though honestly, he should have won an Oscar a long time ago.

Update, January 17, 2012: Still the dark horse at this time, but I'd be very happy to see him win.

4. Michael Fassbender- Shame

Formerly Ranked #5

At the age of 34, Michael Fassbender is the youngest person of the 5 predicted nominees but it's a shame (no pun intended) that it's taken this long for him to really became noticed. I haven't seen Shame yet because it's NC-17 but Fassbender's performance as a troubled sex addict has received all kinds of applause. I expect him to be nominated, but out of the 5 nominees, he has the lowest chances of making the cut. After all, he was unexpectedly not nominated by the Screen Actors Guild. That said, look at his wikipedia page and see all of the various awards that he's been nominated for (and won) for hs Shame performance. He'll probably make the cut.

Update, January 17, 2012: He received a BAFTA nomination while Leonardo Dicaprio didn't which I think almost guarantees his spot as an Oscar nominee.

5. Leonardo Dicaprio- J. Edgar

Formerly Ranked #4

I'm not sure if Leonardo Dicaprio has ever given a bad performance. Maybe in Gremlins 3, but I never saw that movie so who knows. But every Dicaprio movie that I've seen has featured an exceptional performance from him. He's been nominated 3 times (What's Eating Gilbert Grape, The Aviator, and Blood Diamond) and is frequently cited on lists of best actors to have never won an Oscar. When i first heard about J. Edgar, I immediately thought "This is his year." I mean after all he plays a real person (the last time none of the acting winners were based on real people was for the Academy Awards held in 1998). Also, he was allegedly gay and some have accused the Academy of having a biased towards gay characters (despite Brokeback mountain not winning best picture or any acting awards) and Dicaprio was long overdue. But the reviews for J. Edgar were mixed and Dicaprio's hype as an Oscar winner has died down. That said, most still agree that his performance was excellent as always and I'd be shocked to see Dicaprio NOT get nominated this year.

Update, January 17, 2012: Not being nominated at the BAFTAS makes Dicaprio's chances seem a tad less likely now.

6. Ryan Gosling- Drive

Formerly Ranked #7

Ryan Gosling has proved himself to be the greatest human being of all time and for good reason. Drive is one of the most awesomely brilliant films in the goddamn universe. And by far my favorite movie of 2011. Gosling's performance as the protagonist is stunning as he plays a complex, awkward, but endlessly fascinating character. His performance is taking notice from some award shows most notably the Brodcast Film Critics association. However, what makes Gosling a serious contender is his win at the Satellite awards. Since it's inception in 1996, Only 2 actors who have won a Satellite Award in the category of Best Actor- Drama have not been nominated at the Oscars. So by that math, Gosling should have an 87% chance of being nominated. I mean in 2008, Michael Shannon receieved an unexpected nomination for his performance in Revolutionary Road. He got recognition at very few award shows besides a win at the Satellite awards and next thing we know, he's an Oscar nominee. So Gosling has a chance and I won't be complaining if he get's nominated.

Update, January 17, 2012: He received a nomination at the BFCA and a nomination at the Golden Globes (for a different film). Although he wasn't nominated at the BAFTAS, the fact that Drive got a Best Film nomination should help his chances a tad bit.

7. Gary Oldman- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Formerly Ranked #6

It feels weird to not include Oldman in the top 5, but I don't think that he'll be nominated. It's strange because a few months ago, I was talking to a friend saying that Oldman would definitely get nominated. There's no doubt about it. I thought that he might even have a chance of winning. Well, I was wrong. Watching clips, Oldman's performance seems...well subtle. Maybe too subtle for the Academy's tastes. It's too bad because he's receieved high acclaim for his performance but the key pre-Oscar award shows aren't taking notice. He wasn't nominated at the Brodcast Film Critics Association, the Screen Actors Guild, or the Golden Globes. He's British so he'll probably be nominated at the Baftas but I think that Oscar nomination might have to wait for a bit longer.

Update, January 17, 2012: CALLED IT, BITCHES! Oldman was nominated at the BAFTAS, but that's still not enough for an Oscar nomination.

8. Michael Shannon- Take Shelter

Michael Shannon has receieved all kinds of acclaim for his role in Take shelter, playing a man who's apparently having apocalyptic visions of a deadly storm. Watching the trailer, I can tell that he put on a great performance. That said, Shannon wasn't nominated at the Brodcast film critics, Screen actors guild, or the golden globes. This makes me doubt him a bit, but then I remember something. As mentioned in Ryan Gosling's section, Shannon receieved an unexpected nomination from the Academy in 2008 for Revolutionary Road. He was NOT nominated by the Brodcast Film Critics, Screen Actors Guild, or the golden globes for that performance either. Maybe the Academy voters just really really like this guy and will happily nominate him again. We'll see.

Update, January 17, 2012: Not nominated at the BAFTAS but he wasn't nominated at the BAFTAS for Revolutionary Road either so I still think that he's got a chance of being an upset nomination.

9. Demián Bichir- A Better Life

Formerly Ranked #10

Mexican film actor Demián Bichir is pretty much an unknown to US audiences but he's recently started to take notice because of his performance in the film A Better Life, especially since he was unexpectedly nominated for best actor by the SAG which was expected to go someone like Fassbender or Oldman. In A Better Life, Bichir plays an illegal immigrant gardner in East L.A. who's attempting to keep his son away from gangs and immigration agents. I gotta say the movie looks really good and I hope to see it sometime, but I don't think he'll be nominated. That said, I'm interested to see future films with Bichir.

10. Joseph Gordon-Levitt- 50/50

Formerly Ranked #11

When I first heard about 50/50 and the Praise for JGL's performance I thought that he'd be getting his first Oscar nomination especially since there was a fair amount of hype surrounding his performance. However, time passed and his performance became less and less talked about. Not much of a shot but Levitt's nomination at the Golden Globes should be noticed.

11. Owen Wilson- Midnight in Paris

Formerly Ranked #12

Midnight in Paris is an excellent film. It's been highly praised as one of Woody Allen's best films in years and Owen Wilson easily gives his best performance to date. It's clearly the kind of role that Woody Allen himself would have portrayed if the film came out 30 years ago, but Wilson really surprised me here. He plays a hollywood screenwriter named Gil who travels to Paris with his fiance and reminisces about Paris in the 1920s. Every night in Paris, he then finds himself traveling back to the 1920s where he interacts with many historical figures. Wilson is very strong here and has just scored a very well deserved first golden globe nomination, but his odds of getting an Oscar nomination are nowhere near as likely

12. Woody Harrelson- Rampart

Formerly Ranked #9

Woody Harrelson is a personal favorite of mine. And I really want to see Rampart. In the film, Harrelson plays a VERY dirty LAPD cop in the 1990s during the time of the Rampart scandal (hence the title). The trailer for the film gives several positive quotes from critics most notably the one from CNN calling Harrelson "A serious Oscar contender."

13. Ryan Gosling- The Ides of March

Ryan Gosling scored a surprise Golden Globe nomination for his performance in The Ides of March as his performance in Drive has been much higher acclaimed. In The Ides of March, Gosling plays a campaign manager for a governer running for president who gets involved in a political scandal. His performance is really strong but if anybody should be getting Oscar nominations for this film it's Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Paul Giamatti in the supporting category. Gosling deserves a nomination much more for Drive, but I'm starting to wonder if the Oscars will surprise me as much as the Golden Globes

14. Brenden Gleeson- The Guard

Everyone loves Brenden Gleeson. Whether he be playing Mad-Eye Moody, that hitman from In Bruges, or Winston Churchill, we can all agree that he's a pretty amazing human being. His performance in The Guard has scored some award noms including a Satellite award nomination and a Golden Globe nomination. But Gleeson is also in a comedy, which tends to be ignored by the Oscars.

15. Tom Hardy- Warrior

I was shocked by Hardy's performance in Warrior. I liked the actor, but I had no idea that he was this good. Though I've heard strong things about him in the film Bronson, I primarily knew him for playing the British character Eames in Inception. He shocked me by just how strong his performance was. He plays a rather disturbed Iraq war veteran with an estranged relationship with his father (Nick Nolte) and brother (Joel Edgerton) who decides to enter an MMA tournament. Hardy has scored nominations at the Satellite awards and the Women Film Critic's circle, but it'll be an uphill battle to score an Oscar nomination.

16. Matt Damon- We Bought a Zoo

MATT DAMON!!!!!

is a very talented actor and it seems like he's not going anywhere anytime soon. Damon is getting older so naturally his roles change. He's not a young but brilliant janitor anymore or a government assassin. Now he's a single father, trying to raise his two children and ends up buying a zoo and is forced to take care of the animals too. This is Cameron Crowe's first film in 6 years and in the 90s he got Oscar nominations for Tom Cruise, Frances Mcdormand, Kate Hudson and a win for Cuba Gooding Jr. Maybe he'll help Damon out too.

17. Dominic Cooper- The Devil's Double

I am quite saddened that this film is getting more notice. Maybe Cooper won't be nominated but I can't believe that nobody is even talking about him. In the Devil's Double, Dominic Cooper has a very difficult role. He has to play two people. Two very different people. The Devil's Double is based on the true story of Latif Yahia, an Iraqi soldier who is forced to become a body double for Uday Hussien, the son of Saddam Hussien. Cooper plays both men and does an astounding job. Latif is likable, kind, and polite while Uday is a hothead asshole, obsessed with having sex with everything but lacking any kind of respect for human life. Cooper dominates this film and I wish more people knew about it.

18. Joel Edgerton- Warrior

Edgerton's performance in Warrior is another great performance that's largely unnoticed. He plays a school teacher who attempts to raise enough money for his kids and wife so their house isn't forclosed. He does this by fighting in MMA matches. At the same time, he has to deal with issues going on with his father and brother. He serves as a sort of indirect foil to Tom Hardy's character and it works. This is my first Joel Edgerton movie and I'm interested to see what else he's got. (I'll be seeing Animal Kingdom soon).

19. Daniel Radcliffe- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II

The character of Harry Potter has developed a lot in it's 7 books/8 movies as has Daniel Radcliffe. He's matured and his acting continues to get stronger. Warner Brothers have campaigned for him to get a best actor nomination but it's not likely. He's getting nominations mostly at those teen award shows that the Academy doesn't give a rat's ass about like the Scream Awards and the People's Choice Awards.

20. Ewan Mcgregor- Beginners

People seem so hung up on Christopher Plummers admittedly excellent and soon to be Oscar winning performance that they seem to completely forget about the main character of the movie itself. Mcgregor is an underrated actor and this performance is one of his best to date. It's subtle, nunaced, and sympathetic. He's not the most cheerful fellow, yet we care for him. We want him to succeed. He has excellent chemistry with both his father (Christopher Plummer) and his girlfriend (Mélanie Laurent). His narrating is also far more unique than most movies. He's not just saying words. He's talking to the audience and I loved that.

21. Jeremy Irvine- War Horse

Jeremy Irvine stars in Steven Spielberg's epic drama War Horse playing a boy who hopes to reunite with his horse after the horse is sent to be a warhorse for the British soldiers during WWI. The film is highly likely to get a best picture nomination but it sounds like the film is more about the horse than Irvine so it's unlikely. The last movie that got Spielberg acting and directing oscar nominations was Munich back in 2005 and Munich didn't get nominations from any of the actors.

22. Paul Giamatti- Win Win

Paul Giamatti gave one of his best performances to date in Win Win, a film that was highly acclaimed by critics and he definitely gave one of the performances of early 2011 (the film came out in March). He plays a lawyer who ends up taking in the grandson of a client who he used for money. His performance perfectly mixes the comedic and dramatic elements but the movie itself has been largely forgotton.

23. Laurence Fishburne- Contagion

Despite being an ensemble piece, Laurence Fishburne is being promoted in the for your consideration ads as the leading actor. The film is honestly quite amazing and underrated and Fishburne is very strong here. It's directed by Steven Soderhberg who previously got Benicio Del Toro an Oscar win for Traffic. Doubt it.

24. Antonio Banderas- The Skin I live in

This one looks weird. In the Spanish film The Skin I Live in, Antonio Banderas plays a brilliant but twisted plastic surgeon who abuses power as he attempts to build the "perfect skin" for a woman who he's holding captive. At least I think that's what it's about. Banderas' performance has been praised at the age of 51, the highly acclaimed actor still doesn't have an Oscar nomination. Maybe the Academy just isn't ready to forgive Ballistic: Ecks Vs. Sever.

25. Matthew Mcconaughey- The Lincoln Lawyer

After a string of boring action films and irritating romantic comedies, Matthew Mcconaughey finally redeems himself in The Lincoln Lawyer where he gives what could be his best performance to date. He plays lawyer Mickey Haller who's assigned a case to defend a millionaire playboy who's been accused of brutally beating a prostitute. But the case is a bit more complex than it seems. Maybe he's not Oscar strong and maybe I only love it as much as I do because Mcconaughey has never been this good but really, i think his performance shouldn't be forgotten.

26. Daniel Craig- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

While Rooney Mara is definitely the star of the English adaptation of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Daniel Craig should not be forgotten either. I thought that his performance as Mikael Blomvkist was better than Michael Nyqvist's performance in the Swedish version and I hope that Craig will keep on choosing roles like this.

28. Jake Gyllenhaal- Source Code

In April, when film critic Richard Roeper was talking about his favorite movies of 2011 so far, he said that Jake Gyllenhaal gave the best performance so far this year. I wholeheartedly agree. If we completely left out the 2nd half of 2011, then Gyllenhaal definitely would have been nominated. Gyllenhaal perfectly balanced strong and sensitive and was a very likable protagonist with several wonderfully acted emotional scenes.

29. Michael Sheen- Beautiful Boy

Michael Sheen's performance as the father of a kid who shot up a college is immenseful but, like his co-star Maria Bello, totally forgotten

30. Ralph Fiennes- Coriolanus

Ralph Fiennes' directorial debut is a modernization of the excellent, but relatively unknown, Shakespeare play. It's received some very strong reviews. Fiennes' performance as the title character, a Roman soldier who goes into politics, looks to be very strong and most agree that Fiennes should have won an Oscar nearly 20 years ago for Schindler's List. Tiny chance of an apology award, perhaps.

31. John Boyega- Attack the Block

Newcomer John Boyega gives a surprisingly layered performance in the British sci-fi comedy Attack the Block, playing an inner city kid and petty crook who must face an alien attack.

32. James McAvoy- X Men: First Class

It's really surprisingly that James McAvoy doesn't have an Oscar nomination yet. He first started getting buzz in 2006 for his performance in The Last King of Scotland and got nominated by the Baftas, but that was ultimately a film dominated by Forest Whitaker's powerhouse performance so that's not too surprising. A year later, he had the lead role in the film Atonement which was receiving critical acclaim and oscar buzz. McAvoy received nominations from the Golden Globes and the Baftas but was forgotten by the Oscars who would nominate Atonement for 7 Academy Awards, including Best Picture. Now McAvoy is back playing a young Charles Xavier, a role played by Patrick Stewart in the original films. Xavier is a mutant with MLK like philosophies who dreams of a world where mutants and humans can live together in peace. McAvoy did a very good job in the film.

33. Steve Carrell- Crazy, Stupid, Love

I'll admit that I wasn't as big of a fan of Crazy, Stupid, Love as some were. The final 15 minutes felt contrived and flat that I wanted to punch a kitten in the face. But everything before that was pretty good including Carrell's performance. He plays a middle aged father who's wife unexpectedly divorces him. So he works to get back in the dating game with The Driver...I mean Ryan Gosling. Carrell actually did a pretty good job at balancing humor and drama and I thought that he might have gotten a nomination at the golden globes but I guess not this year.

34. Mel Gibson- The Beaver

Gibson was a big star in the 70s with Mad Max, then a big star in the 80s with Lethal Weapon, then a big star in the 90s when he won an Academy award for directing Braveheart. Then it went downhill. I'm sure that Mel Gibson is a lovely young man but he's been screwing up a lot lately. His 2004 film Passion of the Christ was accused of being anti-Semitic, then in 2006, Gibson was pulled over by a police officer for a DUI where he was found complaining about Jews. Despite an apology, it wasn't over yet. in 2010, he was accused of racism, sexism, and domestic violence. But now it's a new year.

Richard Roeper's review for The Beaver praises Gibson's performance and said that he would be a definite Best Actor contender if it hadn't been for the controversy listed above. Gibson has never been nominated for an Oscar for acting but he's apparently very strong in the movie, but nobody is talking about it.

35- Gerard Butler- Machine Gun Preacher

Machine Gun Preacher sounded like perfect Oscar bait. The true story of a Hell's Angels gang member and criminal who leaves his troubled life and goes to Uganda to help the children there through the use of armed raids against militia. Then the reviews came in and they were mostly negative. Maybe next year

Best Director

This category is key for movies, because if you get nominated for Best Director, you USUALLY get nominated for Best Picture. At least it used to be like that, but now that the Best Picture nominations can be anywhere from 5-10 nominations, the Best director is guaranteed a best picture nomination. Directing is a tough job and one that deserves all of the attention that it gets.

1. Michel Hazanavicius- The Artist

No I haven't seen The Artist but it seems like everybody enjoys it. The concept is certainly ambitious: A silent film star in Hollywood in the late 20s finds his career dying as silent films are replaced with talkies. The catch is that the film is a silent black and white film. Hazanavicius is getting praise everywhere. He's got some serious competition, but I think he'll win the Oscar. Why? Because all of the other serious competitors are already Oscar winners who I'll be talking about next.

Update, January 17, 2012: The Artist has 12 Bafta nominations. Sounds like Hazanvicius is gonna win. He also won at the BFCA.

2. Martin Scorcese- Hugo

Formerly Ranked #4

Martin Scorcese had been making awesome movies since the 70s but didn't get an Oscar until 2006 for The Departed. It was his 6th directing nomination. Almost everyone agrees that he should have won earlier whether it be for Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, or Goodfellas. Nonetheless, Scorcese seems to have know plans of pulling an Al Pacino (finally winning an Oscar after several nominations and then never being nominated again). Hugo will be his first Oscar nomination since The Departed and I'm happy to see that he's not slacking now that he has the gold.

Update, January 17, 2012: Scorcese won an unexpected best director Golden Globe and has secured nominations at the BFCA and the BAFTAS. Scorcese is a lock

3. Alexander Payne- The Descendants

Formerly Ranked #2

Payne won an Oscar in 2004 for writing the screenplay for Sideways, but he has not yet won an Oscar for directing so I think that gives him a pretty good shot. The Descendants is certainly a great movie with a realistic atmosphere and true to life story telling. But it might be a bit too real for some people's tastes.

Nonetheless if there's one person who Hazanavicius should be really worried about, it's Alexander Payne.

Update, January 17, 2012: Payne wasn't nominated at the Golden Globes, sounds like The Artist is winning this year.

4. Woody Allen- Midnight in Paris

Formerly Ranked #5

The young kids don't know him too well but ask your parents and they'll all know who he is. Woody Allen is one of the most succesful moviemakers in hollywood. He's been nominated for 21 Oscars. 14 as a screenwriter, 6 as a director, and 1 as an actor. His last nomination was in 2005 for the Match Point Screenplay. He hasn't received a directing nomination however since 1994 for Bullets over Broadway. He's also only won the Best Director Oscar once, for Annie Hall back in 1977.

Midnight in Paris is a terrific film and praised by many as one of Woody Allen's best films in years. That praise alone is enough to grant Allen an Oscar nomination, but the pre-Oscar award shows help too.

5. David Fincher- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Formerly Ranked #13

David Fincher directed Fight Club, the greatest movie of all time, so in my opinion it's an absolute crime that Fincher doesn't have an Oscar yet. The good news is that he's received 2 nominations for his last 2 movies The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and The Social Network. The bad news is that The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo isn't getting the same hype as those movies. It's a goddamn shame. Probably the worst crime America has commited since the My Lai massacre.

Update, January 17, 2012: Fincher SHOULD be nominated, but it's not happening.

Update, January 23, 2012: Fincher's unexpected support by the writers, directors, and producer guilds puts him right back in the race.

6. Steven Spielberg- War Horse

Formerly Ranked #3

Spielberg has received 6 Best Director nominations and the longest gap that he's ever had without receiving a Best Director nomination is 11 years (E.T. 1982, Schindler's List 1993). Just when you think he's old news, he releases another big hit and gets an Oscar nomination. His last directing nomination was in 2005 for Munich. In other words, it's about time to give Spielberg another nomination. I'm yet to see War Horse, and to be honest, it looks REALLY sentimental, but it's a Spielberg film and although I doubt that it's as good as Schindler's List, it's probably good enough for the Academy to nominate him again. Don't expect a win though.

Update, January 17, 2012: War Horse got a Best Picture nomination at the Golden Globes but Spielberg was not nominated for Best Director. War Horse will likely get nominated at the Oscars but I don't think Spielberg will make the cut for Director. He wasn't nominated at SAG, Golden Globes, or BAFTA.

7. Nicolas Winding Refn- Drive

Formerly Ranked #4

In a perfect world, Refn would be a frontrunner for Best Director, but this is a world filled with murder, rape, greed, and buttholes. Drive is a masterpiece and the direction by Refn is outstanding. He's been nominated at some places, like the Critics Choice Awards and the Satellite Awards and won Best Director at the Cannes film festival, but the key ones are the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild where he was snubbed. doubt it's gonna happen this year.

Update, January 17, 2011: Refn was just nominated at the BAFTAS in addition to his BFCA nomination. He might just have a shot after all.

Update, January 23, 2011: Refn's lack of hype and support at the Guilds makes me question his chances again.

8. Tate Taylor- The Help

Formerly Ranked #6

Prior to The Help, the only film Tate Taylor had done was some shitty movie about some ugly chick. However, being a friend of author Kathryn Socket (Writer of The Help), he seemed to be the perfect guy to adapt it into a film. Alas, he was. The Help isn't flawless, but Taylor managed to get some great performances out of his actors and pack a strong emotional punch. He might be nominated.

Update, January 17, 2012: Not getting any directing nominations, but the film is still likely to get nominated for best Picture

9. Bennett Miller- Moneyball

Formerly Ranked #7

In the last 13 years, Miller has made 3 movies. His first was a documentary. So he only has 2 feature films. Miller's 2nd/last film Capote earned him an Oscar nomination for Best Director and in my opinion, Moneyball is just as good as Capote but I don't think that it's quite popular enough to score a 2nd directing nomination for Bennett Miller

Update, January 17, 2012: Likely to score a Best Picture nom

10. George Clooney- The Ides of March

Formerly Ranked #7

You might be thinking "Why would George Clooney get nominated for The Ides of March?" Isn't he already getting enough hype with The Descendants? Well at the 2005 Oscars, Clooney won an acting Oscar for Syriana but also received Oscar nominations for directing Good Night and Good Luck and writing the Screenplay for it. I loved The Ides of March and it seemed forgotten until recently. It unexpectedly received 4 Golden Globe nominations and now it seems to be a contender again which I think is 100% deserved.

11. Paul Feig- Bridesmaids

Formerly Ranked #10

Feig seems like a strange choice for a nomination as Bridesmaids is, for the most part, a raunchy R rated comedy with Jokes about women throwing up and shitting due to food poisioning, and the Academy tends to focus on Dramas. However, Bridesmaids has received unexpected Oscar buzz for it's performances and the film itself. Plus Paul Feig is the creator of the cult tv show Freaks and Geeks so he's pretty amazing.

Update, January 17, 2012: It's a longshot, but since Bridesmaids is starting to gain some Best Picture momentum, I think he has a small chance

12. Tomas Alfredson- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Formerly Ranked #11

I've only seen one Tomas Alfredson movie, Let The Right one in, which is the probably the greatest vampire film of all time. At the very least he deserves a nomination for Tinker, Tailor since he didn't get one for Let The Right One in.

Update, January 17, 2012: A BAFTA nomination puts Alfredson right back in the competition

13. Stephen Daldry- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Formerly Ranked #12

Daldry has been nominated for 3 Oscars. His last nomination was in 2008 for The Reader. And honestly, when I saw the trailer I thought that he would definitely be nominated for this. It looked like perfect Oscar bait. But then the reviews came in and they were pretty mixed. But I'm not counting it out yet just because the film just screams "Give me an Oscar!" And The Reader only has a 62% on Rotten tomatoes, but he was nominated over the much more favorable films The Dark Knight and The Wrestler.

Update, January 17, 2012: A nomination at the BFCA gives Daldry a slighter chance over other, arguably more worthy, candidates.

14. Lynne Ramsay- We Need to Talk About Kevin

New Candidate

Ramsay's psychological Drama didn't get much attention besides with Tilda Swinton's performance. But Ramsay just received an unexpected BAFTA nomination so I'll add her to the list.

14. Terrence Mallick- The Tree of Life

Formerly Ranked #12

The Tree of Life is a love it or hate it movie. It's either ambitious or pretentious. Well beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but in my eyes, the film was beautiful and ambitious. The cinematography was absolutely stunning and I thought that Mallick balanced style and substance quite well. His other works include The Thin Red Line and The New World. But the film might be too...Malicky too really win over the Academy.

15. Steve McQueen- Shame

Formerly Ranked #14

Before all of you say "Steve McQueen is dead," let me explain. I don't mean that Steve McQueen. This is a different Steve McQueen entirely. The dead Steve McQueen is neither black nor British and that Steve McQueen's birth name is Terrence. This Steve McQueen really is named Steve mcQueen.

Anyways, McQueen directed Shame so he got to film a lot of real nudity and a lot of fake sex. But the tough part is reminding people that the film isn't a porno which he apparently does quite well. The camerawork itself has also been highly praised. But Shame is NC-17 and thus might not fly with the Academy too well.

16. Jason Reitman- Young Adult

Formerly Ranked #15

Jason Reitman is a very talented director. He's already received 2 directing nominations at the age of 34 and 4 Oscar nominations total. Young Adult has been praised by many critics but it's lacking the acclaim of his previous works so he'll have to really campaign if he wants a nomination.

17. Simon Curtis- My Week with Marilyn

Formerly Ranked #16

Curtis' film My Week with Marilyn is getting more focus on the actors than on Curtis himself but it decide receive a best picture golden globe nomination and it is the director's job to get good performances from his actors, so maybe Curtis will get lucky and score a nomination.

18. David Yates- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2

Formerly Ranked #17

David Yates has been directing all of the Harry Potter films since The Order of the Phoenix (#5) but many argue that the final entry is the strongest to date. I'm not sure if I agree with that statement, but it is a very good movie, and I think that a large amount of that credit goes to David Yates.

19. Gavin O'Connor- Warrior

Gavin O'Connor deserves serious attention for Warrior which he's not gonna get. The fight scenes are staged expertly and the performances are incredible. I'm interested to see what O'Connor has planned next.

20. Jonathan Levine- 50/50

First off, he looks stoned as shit in this picture.

Also, Jonathan Levine's film 50/50 has received rave reviews though nobody is talking about Levine himself so I'm not totally sure as to where he stands with the Oscars.

21. Cameron Crowe- We Bought a Zoo

Crowe finally returned back to filmmaker after a 6 year hiatus. His most famous films are Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous. We Bought a Zoo has received positive reviews but it hasn't been super acclaimed. That said, it's got MATT DAMON, so that makes any decent movie into a masterpiece.

22. J.C. Chandor- Margin Call

Margin Call was a masterpiece in my opinion so it sucks that it probably won't get any Oscar nominations. J.C. Chandor expertly creates a unique atmosphere of greed with fascinating characters. This was Chandor's first film and hopefully he has more films to come.

23. Steven Soderbergh- Contagion

Soderbergh is another director who deserves more buzz. Contagion was far more terrifying than any horror movie that's been released in the last decade. The camera work is amazing, the atmosphere is frightening, and the performances are great. But it's a techno-thriller, not a drama. Soderbergh will have to make Traffic 2 if he wants another Oscar.

24. Clint Eastwood- J. Edgar

It feels weird not having Eastwood higher on the list. Eastwood has won Best Director twice and has been nominated four times. J. Edgar was predicted to be a Best Picture frontrunner, but the reviews were mixed. I'll admit that it wasn't Eastwood's best film, but I thought it was pretty good. I liked the color tone and acting in the film but it seems like most don't think that it was Oscar quality.

25. Phyllida Lloyd- The Iron Lady

Phyllida Lloyd is the only woman listed in this category, but this is more because of the fact that there aren't a lot of female directors for some reason as opposed to, for example, women being inferior to men in movie directing. But the fact that she's a woman could give her a small chance. The Academy might want to nominate a woman as to not appear sexist and to add more diversity to the category. Plus, despite criticism for the narrative, Meryl Streep's performance in The Iron Lady has been highly praised, and Lloyd deserves at least some credit for that.

26. Shawn Ku- Beautiful Boy

First off, NO, Shawn Ku will not be nominated for Beautiful Boy, but I know a guy who loves the movie so I figured that I'd include Shawn Ku anyways. And Beautiful Boy was a pretty good movie, just as long as you're ok with feeling like shit after watching it.

Best Picture

This year the Best Picture nomination is different. It can be anywhere between 5-10 nominees. 

1. The Artist

The Artist is sweeping award shows include getting a gazillion nominations at the BAFTAS. Plus the concept is a pretty ballsy one (black and white silent film in the 21st century). It's going to win.

2. Hugo

I didn't think that Martin Scorcese's first children's film would get as much love as it did, but I was wrong. With Scorcese's upset Best Director win at the Golden Globes, Hugo looks to be a Best Picture runner up.

3. The Descendants

I originally thought that The Descendants was the Best Picture frontrunner, but it's snub at the BAFTAS makes me think that it'll have to settle for a nomination only.

4. Midnight in Paris

Though it's unlikely that it'll get any acting nominations, Midnight in Paris is being praised as one of Allen's best films in years and I think it's basically locked for a Best Picture nomination.

5. The Help

Taylor won't get a director nomination, but The Help has received enough hype to get a Best Picture slot, largely based on the terrific performances by Viola Davis, Jessica Chastain, and Octavia Spencer.

6. War Horse

Love it or hate it, War Horse is a Steven Spielberg film and since most people consider it at least good, that's enough for it to give an Oscar nomination. Plus it's sentimental and the Academy eats that shit up.

7. Moneyball

Moneyball is an excellent drama with outstanding performances but hasn't received enough hype to get a Best Director nomination. However, I still think that it's likely to be nominated for Best Picture

8. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Although I love the movie, a week ago I thought "No way." but it's gotten unexpected support from several guilds including the Directors guild, producers guild, and writers guild. It's not a lock for best picture, but it's got a chance.

THE CUT OFF LINE

9. The Tree of Life

Though I thought that The Tree of Life was a terrific film as both a visual treat and an emotional story, I think the film is ultimately to polarizing to get a Best Picture nomination

10. The Ides of March

The Ides of March is a terrific film that was mostly forgotten until being revived by The Golden Globes. However, I don't think that's enough for the Academy to recognize it.

11. Drive

Drive SHOULD BE #1. Drive SHOULD BE sweeping all of the awards shows, but this is a world where men who don't understand what abortion means can run for President, women get raped by unspeakable things, and Brian Cox and Kevin Bacon don't have Oscar nominations. It won't happen.

12. Bridesmaids

Bridesmaids has gotten a lot of unexpected hype given it a chance of a nomination, but I still don't expect it to happen.

13. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy

Tomas Alfredson's (Let the Right One in) dialogue driven spy thriller has received strong reviews from critics but the hype has definitely died down/

14. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close has received mixed reviews from critics but since it's a sentimental film, that may be enough for the Academy nonetheless

9. Kirsten Dunst- Melancholia

Formerly Ranked #10

I've been dying to see Lars Von Trier's Melancholia especially after hearing the great praise about Dunst's performance as a newly married woman who discovers another planet that may be heading towards the earth. Dunst has been nominated at several smaller award shows but her shots at landing an Oscar nomination have kind of vanished. Why? It's Lars Von Trier's fault, not her. Von Trier said that he somewhat sympathizes with Hitler and jokingly called himself a Nazi. Though I believe that he had the best intentions with the comment, his controversial comment has mostly overshadowed everything else about the movie, including Dunst's performance, so it's an uphill battle.

Update, January 17, 2012: Not getting nominated for the mainstream awards but she's getting nominated at a lot of the smaller award shows.