The Oscar nominations are going to be announced tomorrow and it's certainly been an interesting year. While things seem to be nearing a sort of consensus at this point, there are still many potential wildcards who could shake this race up.
Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio- The Revenant
DiCaprio has already received many raves for his performance in The Revenant, including winning the Golden Globe for Best Actor, Drama. At this point, it seems pretty obvious that he's going to win so there's no doubt in my mind that he'll be nominated.
2. Michael Fassbender- Steve Jobs
Steve Jobs suffered from a poor box office performance in spite of strong reviews. Nonetheless, it's come back strong with Fassbender scoring all the major precursors. With co-star Winslet and screenwriter Aaron Sorkin winning Golden Globes, it's likely they'll carry Fassbender along to the Oscars, if there was ever any doubt.
3. Matt Damon- The Martian
Although Matt Damon missed the key SAG nomination, the amount of hype this film has built up makes his nomination a near lock. The Martian is presumed to be a Best Picture (winning the Golden Globe in the comedy category) and Best Director contender so it's unlikely that the Academy wouldn't bring the film's star to the table as well. The Golden Globe win and National Board of Review win also helps solidify him.
4. Eddie Redmayne- The Danish Girl
On paper, Redmayne should be safe. Baity role with a baity director (Tom Hooper), fresh off an Oscar win last year and with plenty of praise this year. He's scored the 4 major precursors (Critic's Choice, SAG, BAFTA, Golden globes) so a nomination seems probable. But as Jake Gyllenhaal taught us last year, even that isn't a guarantee for an Oscar nomination.
5. Bryan Cranston- Trumbo
A contender who kinda came out of nowhere after scoring nominations at SAG and the Golden Globes. His film is little seen and has only received decent reviews, but the precursors may go in his favor. I'm playing things safe and predicting he'll make it in, especially since he's in a movie about movies, which the Academy loves to go for.
6. Johnny Depp- Black Mass
Someone I really want to get in, but am uncertain about. Depp's performance was acclaimed, but the film seems largely forgotten now and although he did score a nomination at SAG and Critic's Choice, he's missing out almost everywhere else. Still, it's more than possible that he could use his star power to squeeze in.
7. Steve Carell- The Big Short
Carell is another possible wildcard, largely thanks to the fact that his film is a major Best Picture contender. However, while I consider Carell to be the heart of the film, most of the accolades are focusing on Bale's performance and the screenplay. Don't count him out yet though.
8. Will Smith- Concussion
Smith has received some raves for Concussion including a Golden Globe nomination, but he's been largely absent from the precursors, the film underperformed at the box office, and unlike Steve Jobs, there's no screenplay or other actors to keep his performance afloat.
9. Michael B. Jordan- Creed
Michael B. Jordan has received some nominations from smaller award shows, but was ignored by the big 4. With co-star Sylvester Stallone being a near-lock, perhaps Jordan could still squeeze himself in,but it's unlikely.
10. Michael Caine- Youth
A film with a lot of early hype that quickly died down as Youth was largely ignored aside from a couple European award shows. Still, with the film receiving two Golden Globe nominations (for Jane Fonda and Best Original Song), the film itself still seems to be in the running, so it might find a way to keep Caine in the running as well. He is liked in the industry after all.
11. Ian McKellen- Mr. Holmes
Ian McKellen is only getting a handful of raves from small award shows for Mr. Holmes, but he is campaigning hard. Still, with lack of any other categories for the film that could push him towards a nomination, his nomination would be a huge surprise.
Best Actress
1. Brie Larson- Room
Speculation over who's the Best Actress frontrunner is slowly being put to rest thanks to Brie Larson's golden globe win.
2. Cate Blanchett- Carol
Blanchett is an obvious lock on the basis of being Blanchett in a critically acclaimed film.
3. Saorise Ronan- Brooklyn
The final actress in this category who could be considered a lock. She may end up as the film's sole nominee, but she's gotten enough precursor's everywhere to guarantee her slot.
4. Alicia Vikander- The Danish Girl
Vikander is hard to predict since the studio has attempted to promote her as a supporting actress. Nonetheless, neither BAFTA nor the Golden Globes agreed with that category placement and nominated her as a leading actress. There's probably just enough hype for her to score a nomination and if she misses, she'll hopefully have another film to fall back on (See below).
5. Charlotte Rampling- 45 Years
This one is incredibly borderline. She missed all 4 precursors, but her film is receiving such raves, it's hard to ignore her. Marion Cotillard was able to score a nomination in spite of missing all 4 precursors so perhaps Rampling can as well.
6. Jennifer Lawrence- Joy
Jennifer Lawrence is the biggest threat to Rampling, especially since she just scored a Golden Globe win (though one might argue her win was kinda by default considering who the competition was). However, Lawrence also could be detracted from being in a film with mixed reviews. While actresses have received Oscar nominations in films with mixed reviews before, they usually score the major precursors which Lawrence has not.
7. Helen Mirren- The Woman in Gold
Mirren is loved in the industry and received a surprise SAG nomination so I say anything is possible.
Best Supporting Actor
Unlike last year, where Best Supporting Actor was quickly narrowed down to 6 people, this year is much more in the open and could take any number of directions.
1. Mark Rylance- Bridge of Spies
Not a clear frontrunner as evidenced by the Golden Globes, but he has received nominations nearly everywhere so it's safe to say Rylance is getting in.
2. Sylvester Stallone- Creed
Although the Golden Globes aired after Oscar voting, Stallone's Globe win still works in his favor. It's been 40 years since someone won a Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor and wasn't nominated for the Oscar, so it's hard to imagine Stallone changing the pattern, in spite of his SAG snub.
3. Christian Bale- The Big Short
A performance I liked, but didn't love. My personal opinions aside, his scores at SAG, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes (as a leading actor) should help him, especially since he's in a Best Picture contender. Though he's missed out at several critics awards, leading to a tiny bit of ambiguity.
4. Idris Elba- Beasts of No Nation
He's scored the major precursors, but he's likely to be the film's sole nomination. And as Daniel Bruhl will tell you, those major precursors are never a guarantee. Elba's film being a Netflix guarantee might not help him either. Still, I think he's got a good shot.
5. Benicio Del Toro- Sicario
Filling in this 5th slot was hard, but I'm going with Benicio Del Toro in Sicario. He gave his best performance in years and although the film's hype seemed to have largely died down, it's recently picked up scoring nominations at the Writer's Guild and Producer's Guild along with a BAFTA nomination for Del Toro himself. He's only one of many wildcards so no guarantees.
6. Mark Ruffalo- Spotlight
When Spotlight came out, both Ruffalo and Keaton were seen as Best Supporting Actor contenders, with some even speculating that both could get nominated. This quickly proved to be wrong as they were both snubbed from SAG and Golden globes in spite of the film's Best Picture status. I personally suspect that they ended up cancelling each other out. Ultimately, Ruffalo ended up emerging as the frontrunner of the two, scoring a BAFTA nomination and several smaller critic nominations. It's still unclear if he'll get in or not, but Spotlight's possible position as a Best Picture frontrunner can't hurt.
7. Michael Shannon- 99 Homes
Yet another wildcard, Michael Shannon would likely be the film's sole nomination if he made the cut. He benefits from scoring surprise SAG and Golden Globe nods for his performance. Unfortunately, the film's low box office isn't great, but he scored a surprise nomination 7 years ago for Revolutionary Road, so I think this is possible.
8. Tom Hardy- The Revenant
Tom Hardy received very positive reviews for his work in The Revenant, even if his performance has largely been overshadowed by DiCaprio's. He's only received a nomination at Critic's Choice of the major precursors, but as Jonah Hill was able to get a surprise, precursorless Oscar nomination for The Wolf of Wall Street (another DiCaprio movie), maybe the same could happen for Hardy, especially in such a big Best Picture contender.
9. Jacob Tremblay- Room
A definite wildcard. Tremblay's category placement is the first place of confusion as he is considered a leading actor by many who have seen the film but is being promoted as a supporting actor. He did grab a SAG nomination and his raves make him a major wildcard to look out for, so we'll see.
10. Paul Dano- Love and Mercy
A performance that would be a frontrunner in a perfect world. Dano is phenomenal as Brian Wilson in Love and Mercy and even scored a Golden Globe nomination and has received much love from critics' award shows. If there's any wildcard, I want to get in, it's him, but I'm just not expecting it.
11. Oscar Isaac- Ex Machina
He missed the 4 precursors, but is getting a lot of love from critics' award shows in a film that's getting more hype every day. Issac's day will come someday, that's for sure.
12. Michael Keaton- Spotlight
The guy who's ultimately being ignored thanks to Ruffalo, still Keaton's understated performance (and a desire to makeup for Birdman) could MAYBE get him a surprise nod. But I really doubt it.
1. Rooney Mara- Carol
A major case of category confusion. Rooney Mara is considered the lead by many viewers, but unlike Vikander, most award shows have seemingly bought into their category placement. With this category, apparently set in stone, I think it's safe to say she's a probable winner in this category.
2. Kate Winslet- Steve Jobs
Even though, it's incredibly doubtful she'll win, Winslet did surprise everyone by winning a Golden Globe, solidifying herself in the race and proving anything is possible.
3. Alicia Vikander- Ex Machina
Alicia Vikander's second Oscar contender. Thanks to her Danish Girl performance being largely seen as leading, she can make room for her Ex Machina performance. Getting raves from critics award shows (considerably more than any other actress in this category) and a golden globe and BAFTA nomination, I'm really crossing my fingers that Vikander makes it in.
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh- The Hateful Eight
Jennifer Jason Leigh has received much praise for her work in The Hateful Eight, including scoring a Golden Globe and BAFTA nomination. I feel like I can't quite call her a lock, but my fingers are crossed.
5. Rachel McAdams- Spotlight
McAdams received a SAG nomination in Spotlight and while her performance hasn't been acclaimed as Keaton or Ruffalo, she does benefit from being in a much weaker category this year.
6. Helen Mirren- Trumbo
Mirren scored nominations at SAG, Bafta, and Critic's Choice. Yet the film's lack of acclaim could be damaging. Could go either way. Still, it's a movie about movies.
7. Jane Fonda- Youth
She received a Golden globe nomination so that's something, but I just don't think the Academy will take to Youth enough.
Best Director
1. Alejandro G. Iñárritu- The Revenant
I'm not sure if he'll win yet, but The Revenant's hype is so great, I have no doubt he's getting nominated.
2. Tom McCarthy- Spotlight
Long thought to be a frontrunner, Spotlight's lack of wins at the Golden globes might hurt a little bit, but McCarthy's getting in. That's clear.
3. Ridley Scott- The Martian
In what can be described as a redemption film, Ridley Scott is scoring nominations everywhere for The Martian. The hype is still very much here and the PGA, DGA, and golden globe for Best Picture (comedy) win definitely helps.
4. Adam McKay- The Big Short
Adam McKay (Anchorman, The Other Guys) never seemed like the kind of guy to get a Best Director nomination, but The Big Short was a shocking hit, which I think has just enough hype for him to make the cut.
5. George Miller- Mad Max: Fury Road
Nobody expected George Miller to be an Oscar contender for this movie, but it's awesome that he is. I fear he'll be the odd one out from the DGA nominations, but occasionally the DGA nominations are identical to the Oscars, so maybe that'll be the exception this time, especially since the only real threats have a lot going against them.
6. Todd Haynes- Carol
This one's hard to say. Haynes didn't get the DGA nomination, but the nominations usually only get 4/5 right. On the other hand, he did get a best director golden globe nomination, but the Best Director golden globes are virtually never 5/5 accurate to the oscar nominations, so I suspect he'll be the odd one out and we'll have a 5/5 DGA nomination/Oscar nomination match this year.
7. Steven Spielberg- Bridge of Spies
Spielberg is definitely loved in the industry, having already been nominated for Best Director 7 times and Bridge of Spies has certainly been acclaimed. Yet the accolades have focused mostly on Rylance. If Eastwood, also beloved in the industry, couldn't get a directing nomination for American Sniper (even with a DGA nomination), I don't think Spielberg will either.
Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Spotlight
Alternate: Inside Out
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Carol
The Martian
Room
Steve Jobs
Alternate: Brooklyn
Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Yes, I'm still predicting Force Awakens to happen. It won't, but I hope the Academy will be nostalgic enough to nominate it.
