2017 Oscar Predictions

Best Actor

1. Casey Affleck- Manchester By The Sea

Affleck has received rave reviews for Manchester by The Sea and the film has received acclaim since its premiere at Sundance that doesn't seem to be dropping. He's a safe bet for a nomination and at this point seems like a potential winner.

2. Denzel Washington- Fences

Denzel Washington reprises his Tony-winning role in the film adaptation of Fences. The simple fact that he won a Tony for playing this character on broadway makes it obvious that he's a serious contender.

3. Ryan Gosling- La La Land

Ryan Gosling could receive his first nomination since Half Nelson 10 years ago. La La Land has received praise as one of the best films of the year with Gosling's performance cited as one of the highlights.

4. Andrew Garfield- Hacksaw Ridge
(Formerly Ranked #6)

The Andrew Garfield film people have seen and praised. The only concern is if his Hacksaw Ridge and Silence performances cancel each other out (an actor can only be nominated once in a category).

5. Joel Edgerton- Loving
(formerly ranked #4)

Edgerton stars as Richard Loving, one-half of the interracial couple that challenged states miscegenation laws. While his performance has been praised, it's also been called quiet and subtle. Whether or not it'll be too subtle for the Academy remains to be seen.

6. Viggo Mortensen- Captain Fantastic
(formerly ranked #7)

Captain Fantastic has been called one of the best indies of the year with Mortensen at the center of the praise. However, it's still a very small indie, so it'll need a good amount of buzz to score him a nomination.

7. Andrew Garfield- Silence
(formerly ranked #5)

This is a gambit call since Silence still hasn't been screened to the vast majority of people and there's no real word on his performance yet. Regardless, his leading presence in a Martin Scorcese film makes me suspect he'll bring a lot.

8. Tom Hanks- Sully
(formerly ranked #7)
Hanks received some of his biggest praise since Captain Phillips (where he was snubbed at the Oscars). Along with having Clint Eastwood as the director, who is adored by the Academy, I may be underestimating Hanks by putting him at #7.

9. Jake Gyllenhaal- Nocturnal Animals

Gyllenhaal scores another raved performance in Nocturnal Animals and like Nightcrawler and Prisoners before, it's become clear that the Academy has no interest in nominating Gyllenhaal for his performances in dark thrillers. Maybe this could be the exception, but probably not.

10. Joseph Gordon-Levitt- Snowden
Joseph Gordon-Levitt received solid reviews for his performance as Edward Snowden, but with the film's failure at the box office, it's going to need a strong campaign to get him nominated. The Satellite Award nomination is a start though.

11. Michael Keaton- The Founder

If you had any doubt that Michael Keaton wants an Oscar, look no further.

12. Adam Driver- Paterson
Adam Driver has received critical acclaim for his performance in Paterson. However, it's a Jim Jarmusch film (none of his films have ever received an Oscar nomination) and is still a small indie at this point.

13. Chris Pine- Hell or High Water

Chris Pine gives his best performance to date in Hell or High Water, but the buzz seems more focused on co-star Jeff Bridges (and to a lesser extent, Ben Foster).

14. Ben Affleck- Live By Night

Ben Affleck has yet to score an acting nomination, but we're all eager for the day that changes. If Live By Night ends up a big hit, maybe this'll be the year. But until it's seen, I can't call it a safe bet for anything.

15. Nate Parker- The Birth of a Nation

Parker would've been more likely before his rape allegation completely ruined his chances. Coupling that with the film's box office failure and the reviews that were less acclaimed than some were hoping for, it's pretty unlikely at this point.

16. Joe Alwyn- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

Some wondered if unknown actor Joe Alwyn could pull off an Oscar nomination for his performance in Ang Lee's latest film, but the mixed reviews (incredibly rare for an Ang Lee film) have greatly depleted any chance he may have had.

17. Will Smith- Collateral Beauty
Will Smith is clearly hoping for some awards love with Collateral Beauty but with no word yet on whether the film is actually good and not too much hype, it's too early to say.

18. Mark Wahlberg- Patriots Day/Deepwater Horizon

Mark Wahlberg stars in two Peter Berg true story dramas this year about loving fathers and husbands who go to work a sometimes dangerous job on a seemingly ordinary day when something horrible ends up happening, resulting in loss of human life. But Deepwater Horizon came and went, in spite of positive reviews, and reviews for Patriots Day say Mark Wahlberg is just one part of an ensemble in Patriots Day.

19.  Miles Teller- Bleed for This

If you had any doubt that Miles Teller really wanted an Oscar nomination, look no further. Spoiler Alert: It's not happening this year.

Best Actress

1. Natalie Portman- Jackie

There are many reasons Natalie Portman may not win. She won just 6 years ago, the actresses listed below are still building hype etc. but for the time being, she's at #1. It's a raved performance. It's a biopic. It's a safe bet for a nomination.

2. Emma Stone- La La Land
(formerly #3)

Stone winning isn't an impossibility for a win either with the amount of hype La La Land has built up.

3. Meryl Streep- Florence Foster Jenkins
(Formerly #5)

Meryl Streep feels like less of a lock than usual, but she's still Meryl Streep.

4. Amy Adams- Arrival
(Formerly #6)

Adams has already been nominated 5 times, which shows how much she's loved by the Academy, but could also make the Academy want to nominate people who haven't had the same amount of recognition. Hard to say, but Arrival's praise has largely centered around her performance.

5. Ruth Negga- Loving
Formerly #4

Negga's performance for Loving, like Edgerton, has been praised but also subtle. So not quite a lock, but still a possibility.

6. Annette Bening- 20th Century Women
(Formerly #2)

Bening has a lot going for her. She's overdue for an Oscar with 4 nominations and zero wins, she already lost to Natalie Portman in 2010, and she has a performance that's been highly acclaimed. Only time will tell.

7. Isabelle Huppert- Elle
(Formerly #8)

Elle is apparently an incredibly dark film. It's also not American. However, foreign-language performances have been nominated before and even won (see Marion Cotillard) and her performance is already receiving recognition from American award shows like the Spirit Awards and Satellite Awards.

8. Emily Blunt- The Girl on the Train
(Formerly #11)

The Girl on the Train received mixed reviews but Emily Blunt's performance was praised and an awards campaign has already began for her.

9. Amy Adams- Nocturnal Animals
(Formerly #7)

Like Andrew Garfield, Adams has two performances that could potentially cancel each other out, but her work in Nocturnal Animals has been highly praised as well, so it'll depend on how the rest of the race plays out.

10. Taraji P. Henson- Hidden Figures
(Formerly #9)

Taraji P. Henson was last nominated in 2008 for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button before becoming better known on tv for shows like Person of Interest and Empire. But if Hidden Figures ends up being a hit with audiences, it could be a chance to recognize her again.

11. Jessica Chastain- Miss Sloane
(formerly #10)

Jessica Chastain's performance has become a MILD hit with critics, so it remains to see how the award shows will take to it.

12. Hailee Steinfeld- Edge of Seventeen

A small indie film starring Hailee Steinfeld, last nominated for True Grit in 2010, may be too small for the Academy, but the critical praise is better than nothing.

13. Rebecca Hall- Christine

Rebecca Hall has received huge acclaim for her performance as Christine Chubbuck, but she wasn't even nominated at the Spirit Awards which makes her chances of an Oscar nomination doubtful.

14. Golshifteh Farahani- Paterson
Iranian actress Golshifteh Farahani has also received acclaim for her performance as Adam Driver's wife in Paterson. However, unless the film starts building up a lot of hype, she's unlikely to be recognized for it.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali- Moonlight
(formerly #2)

Moonlight was an indie that rose higher than I think anyone could've imagined and Mahershala Ali's subtle but powerful performance was one of the highlights. While I do fear the performance may not be flashy enough for the Academy, it's not a crowded year for supporting actor (I'd call everyone after #11 a long shot), so I'm hoping the Academy will give him the recognition he deserves.

2. Jeff Bridges- Hell or High Water
(formerly #4)

This one seems a bit unfair, because I definitely consider Jeff Bridges co-lead of the film (he's even billed first), but the film seems to be pushing him as supporting and if so, he seems like a decent bet to get in as the hype for Hell or High Water remains strong after many months.



3. Lucas Hedges- Manchester by the Sea
(formerly #3)
The young Lucas Hedges seems to have given his breakout role in Manchester by the Sea, with many saying he's just as good in the film as Casey Affleck.

4. Dev Patel- Lion
(formerly #5)
Although the trailer makes him look like the lead, Patel apparently has less screentime than it looks as a large amount of the film centers on him as a child played by a younger actor. And this may for the best if Patel wants a shot at gettin a nomination.


5. Hugh Grant- Florence Foster Jenkins
(formerly #10)
I don't know. Streep sometimes carries her co-stars to a nomination

6. Liam Neeson- Silence
(formerly #1)

While it's yet to be seen by many, Liam Neeson's performance in Silence is expected to be brief but with lots of depth and I truly hope it ends up being as good as we're hoping. For that reason, this prediction may be a longshot, but if the performance lives up to expectations, I think Neeson will have a good shot.

7. Issey Ogata- Silence

8. Adam Driver- Silence
Like Liam Neeson, Adam Driver's performance remains to be seen, but he's Adam Driver which means he's awesome. So let's just acknowledge that now.

9. Peter Sarsgaard- Jackie 
Sarsgaard is incredibly underrated and far overdue for an Oscar nomination. I don't know if Jackie will be the film to do that, with the amount of hype centered on Natalie Portman's performance, but in an uncrowded year, he may be able to carry himself to a nomination.

10. Michael Shannon- Nocturnal Animals
Michael Shannon received an Oscar nomination for his scene-stealing performance in Revolutionary Road and he's been long overdue for a second nomination after fantastic performances in films like Take Shelter and 99 Homes. Could it come for Nocturnal Animals? Maybe.

11. Aaron Taylor-Johnson- Nocturnal Animals
Aaron Taylor-Johnson is someone whose past performances I've ranged from "solid" to "bad". Then he gave an absolutely amazing, chilling performance in Nocturnal Animals, which serves as a great reminder that an actor is often only as good as their script. I don't know if he's a contender, but he deserves to be one.
.

12. Ben Foster- Hell or High Water

Ben Foster is one of the most underrated actors alive from Alpha Dog to 3:10 to Yuma to The Messenger to Six Feet Under. He's given so many wonderful performances from the year and Hell or High Water is no exception. Yet with Jeff Bridges going supporting, he's almost certainly going to be ignored by the Academy. But he did get a Spirit award nomination so that's better than nothing.

13. Ashton Sanders- Moonlight
My favorite of the three actors portraying Chiron in Moonlight, but without a clear consensus of who was the best actor, it's unliekly any of them will be nominated.

14. Trevante Rhodes- Moonlight
Also excellent as Chiron in Moonlight, but see above.

15. Ralph Fiennes- A Bigger Splash

16. Kyle Chandler- Manchester by the Sea

I'm not entirely sure how much screentime Kyle Chandler actually has in the film, but he's proven himself capable of making an impression even in small roles (i.e. The Wolf of Wall Street).

17. Aaron Eckhart- Sully
Eckhart brings some decent rapport with Tom Hanks in Scully and Hanks has a history of getting his co-stars Oscar nominations (Paul Newman, Barkhad Abdi, Mark Rylance, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Michael Clarke Duncan). I don't really think Eckhart brings enough to the role to warrant a nomination, but the Academy loves awarding Clint Eastwood films when they can.

18. Patrick Stewart- Green Room
Won't get nominated, but Patrick Stewart's terrifying against-type performance as a vicious neo-nazi leader deserves more recognition.

19. John Goodman- 10 Cloverfield Lane
Also won't be nominated, but John Goodman gives one of his best performances to date in 10 Cloverfield Lane.

Japanese Actors- Silence
Silence has a lot of Japanese actors in potentially meaty roles, but at this point not enough is known about them and I feel the Academy would probably prefer Neeson or Driver anyways.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis- Fences
Viola Davis reprises her Tony-winning role in Fences. She already lost for The Help, which some saw as a snub, and with the amount of hype, she definitely feels like a potential winner.

2. Michelle Williams- Manchester by the Sea
Williams has already been nominated 3 times and has already been building an "overdue" narrative before turning 40. Her performance in Manchester by the Sea has been called one of best of her career so she should be a safe bet.

3. Naomie Harris- Moonlight
Harris is fantastic in Moonlight, turning what could've been a stereotypical character into somebody rather complex. And Moonlight's hype still hasn't died down so she'll hopefully be a safe bet for a nomination.

4. Nicole Kidman- Lion
A less safe bet than the previous 3, but Kidman's positive reception for her role as Dev Patel's adopted mother in Moonlight and general respect by the Academy should push her forward.


5. Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures
(formerly #7)
Spencer unexpectedly become one of the biggest names following her acclaim and subsequent Oscar win for her role in The Help. Hidden Figures may be a chance to score her a second nomination if it lives up to its hype.


6. Janelle Monáe- Hidden Figures
(formerly #8)
Monáe wasn't one I was thinking about too extensively but she ended up scoring a Critic's Choice nomination over Spencer, so she's clearly a contender at this point.

7. Greta Gerwig- 20th Century Women
(formerly #5)
She's on the bubble as 20th Century Women doesn't seem to have a lot of hype building currently, but Gerwig has the benefit of a not especially crowded category and the film's critical acclaim.

8. Helen Mirren- Eye in the Sky
(formerly #6)
A film that came out awhile ago, but is still being discussed. Eye in the Sky could easily miss out entirely but let's wait and see.

9. Kristen Stewart- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

Stewart is incredibly underrated and too frequently remembered just for Twilight. Unfortunately, Billy Lynn's mixed reception means she might still not be getting the recognition I'm hoping for.

10. Lupita N'yongo- Queen of Katwe

Lupita N'yongo received an Oscar for her work in 12 Years a Slave and I'm excited to see her in another drama. However, in spite of much acclaim for her performance, the film's box office failure makes it doubtful.

Best Picture
The jury is still out on Best Picture, but I'll give La La Land the benefit of the doubt until Silence comes out. 

1. La La Land

2. Silence

3. Manchester by the Sea

4. Moonlight

5. Loving

6. Arrival

7. Fences

8. 20th Century Women

9. Hell or High Water

10. Sully

11. Jackie

12. The Jungle Book

13. Lion

14. Hidden Figures

15. Hacksaw Ridge

16. Nocturnal Animals

17. Captain Fantastic

18. Patriot's Day

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle- La La Land

2. Martin Scorcese- Silence

3. Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the Sea

4. Barry Jenkins- Moonlight

5. Jeff Nichols- Loving

6. Denis Villeneuve- Arrival

7. Denzel Washington- Fences

8. Pablo Lorrain- Jackie

9. Jon Favreau- The Jungle Book

10. Mike Mills- 20th Century Women

11. David Mackenzie- Hell or High Water

12. Clint Eastwood- Sully

13. Tom Ford- Nocturnal Animals

14. Mel Gibson- Hacksaw Ridge

Top films to see this Fall/December 2016

Another year, another overly long list of films to see from September to December. Let's get to it!

40. Miss Sloane 

 Miss Sloane stars Jessica Chastain as "a ruthless lobbyist (Jessica Chastain) who is notorious for her unparalleled talent and her desire to win at all costs, even when it puts her own career at risk. The thriller pulls back the curtain on how Capitol Hill games are played and won as Sloane faces off against the most influential powers in D.C." More specifically, she's trying to push gun control, an incredibly hot-topic issue these days. I'm curious but somewhat hesitant to see how the film addresses the issue, which I'm hoping won't be too anvilicious. 

39. Patriot's Day

Are you ready for a movie about the Boston Marathon bombing? Well it doesn't matter because it's happening anyways. Peter Berg's second film this year (after Deepwater Horizon) tells the story of the Boston Marathon bombing and subsequent investigation and manhunt. It stars Mark Wahlberg, John Goodman, Kevin Bacon, J.K. Simmons and Michelle Monaghan. I'm not entirely sure if the existence of the film is necessary, but I am curious to see how Peter Berg will handle the material.

38. Assassin's Creed

Video game adaptations have an incredibly poor reputation and I have absolutely no idea if Assassin's Creed will break that trend, but with Michael Fassbender in the lead, I'm at least somewhat hopeful. The film is not directly based off of the video game but rather set in the same universe, which might be for the best in the interest of giving enough creative freedom while subsequently keeping the tone and spirit of the games. We'll see. If you ignore the incredibly out of place music in the trailer, the imagery looks pretty cool.

37. Collateral Beauty

Will Smith stars as a man trying to recover from a tragedy while meeting mysterious "people" who come into his life. While the premise seems like the film could easily be too sentimental for my taste, the cast also includes Edward Norton, Keira Knightley, Michael Peña, Kate Winslet, and Helen Mirren and that alone interests me.

36. Shut In

This Naomi Watts film is described as "A heart-pounding thriller about a widowed child psychologist who lives in an isolated existence in rural New England. Caught in a deadly winter storm, she must find a way to rescue a young boy before he disappears forever." But more importantly, JACOB TREMBLAY IS IN IT! And Jonathan Byers!

35. Gold

Some have questioned if The McConaissance has ended, following the releases of Matthew McConaughey films such as Sea of Trees and Free State of Jones, which were critical and commercial failures. Gold might be his chance to bring back the McConaissance before it's too late. He portrays a man searching for (spoiler alert) gold in Indonesia. It's written and directed by Stephen Gaghan, best known for writing Traffic and writing and directing Syriana. That alone is enough to peak my interest.

34. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

It's the Harry Potter spin-off where Eddie Redmayne deals with magic congress or something, which sounds a lot better than normal congress.

33. Bad Santa 2

Not sure if anyone was demanding a sequel to Bad Santa 2, but it's happening and hey, it looks like it could be fairly funny.

32. The Light Between Oceans

Derek Cianfrance (Blue Valentine, Place Beyond the Pines) directs this drama starring real-life couple Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander as a couple that adopts a baby lost at sea who then must later deal with the consequences when discovering the child's true parentage.

31. Sully

Clint Eastwood directs Tom Hanks in this drama about Chelsey "Sully" Sullenberger who successfully glided his plane along the water in the Hudson River and the subsequent investigation.

30. Lion
Dev Patel stars in this drama about an Indian man who was adopted by an Australian family as a young boy who sets up to discover his biological parents. Nicole Kidman also stars.

29. Allied
A film that is now being overshadowed by the breakup of Brangelina, Allied is directed by Robert Zemeckis and stars Brad Pitt and Marion Cottilard as two assassins who fall in love during World War II 

28. Passengers
This is the movie where we'll find out if Jennifer Lawrene and Chris Pratt are actual Box office stars or have simply have been riding on the franchises they've been in. Also Michael Sheen is a robot or something. And I think I saw Andy Garcia and Laurence Fishburne in the trailer too.

27. Birth of a Nation

Now arguably overshadowed by Nate Parker's sexual assault allegation, Birth of a Nation is written, directed by, and stars Nate Parker as Nat Turner, who organized a slave rebellion. The film was released to critical acclaim at the Sundance Film Festival.

26. Rules Don't Apply

Remember Warren Beatty? He's back after an incredibly long absence, his first acting role in 15 years (Town & Country) and first directing project in 18 years (Bullworth). Set in the 1950s, Beatty plays an eldery Howard Hughes while Alden Ehrenreich and Lily Collins play the driver and actress respectively who work for him.

25. Edge of Seventeen
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) about an awkward high school junior dealing with her older brother dating her best friend, her well-meaning but ineffective mother (Kyra Sedgwick) and her history teacher (Woody Harrleson) who acts as a mentor of sorts for her. Early reviews have been positive with a 90% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 10 reviews with an average rating of 8/10.

24. Queen of Katwe

Even with an Oscar win, it still feels like Lupita N'yongo is an underrated actress so it's great to see her in a new film where her performance is garnering praise. Queen of Katwe is set in Uganda and follows a young girl who becomes introduced to chess tournaments by her mentor (David Oyelowo) to the reluctance of her mother (Lupita N'yongo). A film set in a foreign country set from the POV of the residents there is pretty rare for a Hollywood feature so I'm curious to see how they handle it.

23. Deepwater Horizon

The other Peter Berg film coming out this year, also based on a true story and starring Mark Wahlberg. Deepwater Horizon follows the offshore drilling rig Deepwater Horizon, which exploded during April 2010 and created the worst oil spill in U.S. history. It looks like Berg will be focusing on the human aspect of the disaster which could make for a very compelling film.

22. 20th Century Women

Directed by Mike Mills (Beginners), 20th Century Women stars Annette Bening as a single mother who tries to teach her son about love and freedom along with two other women in the 1970s. It's a bit of a vague plot, but Bening and Mills are enough to interest me.

21. Moana

Already overshadowed with both praise (for having the first Polynesian Disney Princess) and criticism (for allegedly stereotyping Polynesians by depicting Maui as overweight), Moana still looks like it has the potential to be another Disney classic with its beautiful animation and intriguing premise.

20. Doctor Strange

The latest film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Doctor Strange stars Benedict Cumberbatch as a former neurosurgeon who finds himself protecting the world from interdimensional threats. As a fan of the MCU in general, I hope this film will be no exception.

19. The Founder

Michael Keaton stars as salesman Ray Croc who maneuvered his way to take control of the McDonalds company from the McDonald brothers (Nick Offerman and John Carroll Lynch) in order to franchise it and make a fortune. The screenplay is written by Robert D. Siegel best known for writing The Wrestler and Big Fan. With a vibe that reminds me of The Social Network, my fingers are really crossed for this one.

18. Live By Night

I think Ben Affleck is a pretty excellent director and I'm one of those people who definitely thinks he was snubbed for Argo, so it's great to see him in the director's chair again. Live By Night is set in the 1920s and 1930s and stars Ben Affleck as a Bostonian who moves to Florida and becomes a prominent bootlegger and gangster. At this point the film's officially release date is January 2017, but it's been speculated that it'll get a limited release in December to make it eligible for the Academy Awards. I guess we'll see.

17. Jackie
Natalie Portman stars in this biopic primarily focusing on the life of Jackie Kennedy following the assassination of her husband. Peter Sarsgaard co-stars as Robert F. Kennedy and the film has received much critical acclaim.

16. Fences

Based on the acclaimed stage play of the same name, Fences stars Denzel Washington and Viola Davis, reprising their Tony-winning roles in the stage play. Set in the 1950s, Denzel Washington plays a former Negro league baseball player, now working as a waste collector, as he struggles to provide for his family.

15. Christine
Christine tells the tragic true story of Christine Chubbuck, a news reporter who committed suicide on the air. Starring the very underrated Rebecca Hall, I'm eager to see how this film handles the very complex issue of depression.

14. The Girl on the Train

Emily Blunt has become one of the best young actresses working today so I'm excited to see her in just about anything. In The Girl on the Train, she plays a young woman who becomes entangled in a missing persons investigation. Based on the novel of the same name.

13. The Accountant

Directed by Gavin O'Connor (Warrior), The Accountant stars Ben Affleck as a mathematics savant who uses his skills to work as an accountant for criminal organizations. The mysterious teaser was enough to intrigue me, but the strong cast and director (Gavin O'Connor, best known for Warrior) has greatly increased my interest.

12. Snowden
Oliver Stone may not be the acclaimed director he once was, but if there was ever a chance for redemption, it'd be with Snowden. Snowden stars Joseph Gordon-Levitt as Edward Snowden who leaked the NSA and CIA's surveillance techniques to the public.

11. Hacksaw Ridge
Hacksaw Ridge marks the first film Mel Gibson has directed since Apocalypto 10 years earlier. It stars Andrew Garfield as a conscientious objector during World War II, who refused to bear arms but worked as a medic saving as many lives as he could while in the Battle of Okinawa. Early reviews have been positive with a 93% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 15 reviews and an average rating of 7.2/10.

10. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

Ang Lee directs this drama about 19-year-old Iraq War veteran who returns home for a victory tour and must deal with his experiences versus people's perceptions and lionizing of him. I'm a huge fan of Ang Lee and respect his decision to cast a newcomer in the lead role and can't wait to see yet another addition to his increasingly diverse filmography.

9. Moonlight
Moonlight is an indie film produced by A24 which has been given much acclaim, Moonlight stars newcomer Trevante Rhodes. He portrays a young man who struggles to find himself, told across three defining chapters in his life as he experiences the ecstasy, pain, and beauty of falling in love, while grappling with his own sexuality. With a 99 on Metacritic, I'm absolutely hyped for this.

8. Manchester by the Sea
Premiering at Sundance to critical acclaim, Manchester by the Sea stars Casey Affleck as a man who unexpectedly becomes the legal guardian of his teenage nephew (Lucas Hedges, in what sounds like a breakout performance) following the death of his brother (Kyle Chandler). It also stars Michelle Williams as Affleck's ex-wife.

7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

The first standalone Star Wars film, Rogue One details the building of the death star. I'm excited to see a Star Wars film focus on smaller people in the conflicts. Not to mention an excellent cast including Felicity Jones, Diego Luna, Ben Mendelsohn, Riz Ahmed, Forest Whitaker, and Mads Mikkelsen and Gareth Edwards' statement that it'll be similar to a war film, stating, "It's the reality of war. Good guys are bad. Bad guys are good. It's complicated, layered; a very rich scenario in which to set a movie."

6. Paterson
The latest film from Jim Jarmusch, it stars Adam Driver as Paterson, a married bus driver working in Paterson, New Jersey and aspiring poet. It's received mass acclaim from critics with a 97% rating on Rotten tomatoes and average rating of 9.1/10.

5. Loving

Jeff Nichols is slowly turning into one of my favorite directors following Take Shelter, Mud, and Midnight Special. Starring Joel Edgerton and Ruth Negga and co-starring frequent Jeff Nichols collaborator Michael Shannon, Loving tells the story of Richard and Mildred Loving, an interracial couple in the 1950s who are arrested in Virginia due to their anti-miscegenation laws. They subsequently sue the state and their case goes all the way up to the Supreme court. While very different from Jeff Nichols' previous films, I have enough faith in him as a director at this point to be excited for anything he does.

4. Arrival

Directed by Denis Villeneuve (Prisoners, Sicario), Arrival stars Amy Adams as a linguist who becomes a part of a team to investigate the motives of a spacecraft that lands on earth. Jeremy Renner and Forest Whitaker co-star. The film has received critical acclaim with a 100% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 36 reviews (average rating 8.5/10), which makes it Villeneuve's most acclaimed film to date.

3. Nocturnal Animals

Looks like Amy Adams is having a good year. Nocturnal Animals is directed by fashion designed Tom Ford who previously surprised audiences by directing the critically acclaimed A Single Man. His sophomore feature co-stars Jake Gyllenhaal, Michael Shannon, and Aaron Taylor-Johnson. Adams plays an art gallery owner who reads her ex-husband's novel, a violent revenge thriller, which she interprets as a veiled threat.

2. La La Land
Damien Chazelle's long awaited follow-up to Whiplash, La La Land stars Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone as a jazz pianist and aspiring actress respectively who meet and fall in love in Los Angeles, but later events put their relationship to the test. La La Land premiered at the Venice Film Festival to near universal praise, with a 96% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and average rating of 8.8/10 based on 46 reviews. Many have suggested it's the current frontrunner for Best Picture.

1. Silence
I've been waiting for this film for a long time and apparently it's finally happening. Silence is based on the acclaimed novel of the same name by Japanese author Shūsaku Endō, which would later win the Tanizaki Prize, a highly regarded literary award in Japan. Silence stars Andrew Garfield and Adam Driver as two Jesuit priests who travel to Japan in search of their mention (Liam Neeson) in the 17th century, where they face violent persecution. Rounded out by a strong Japanese cast (which sadly does not include Ken Watanabe, who had to drop out due to scheduling conflicts) and directed by the always brilliant Martin Scorcese, Silence has a lot going for it and I truly believe it can live up to the hype. It's going to be released on December 23rd.

2016 Oscar Nominations Final Predictions

These numbered lists are in order of likelihood of winning, not personal preference.

Best Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio- The Revenant

2. Michael Fassbender- Steve Jobs

3. Eddie Redmayne- The Danish Girl

4. Matt Damon- The Martian

5. Bryan Cranston- Trumbo

Leonardo DiCaprio is winning this. There's a TINY chance that Fassbender will take it through some miracle, but he's sweeping all of the awards shows. DiCaprio is winning tonight. Redmayne won last year, Damon is in a science-fiction film, and Cranston's film is too small.

Best Actress

1. Brie Larson- Room

2. Saorise Ronan- Brooklyn

3. Cate Blanchett- Carol

4. Charlotte Rampling- 45 Years

5. Jennifer Lawrence- Joy

Brie Larson also likely has this one in the bag. Lawrence and Rampling barely made it in, Blanchett just won 2 years ago, and Ronan, the only potential spoiler, isn't sweeping any of the awards.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sylvester Stallone- Creed

2. Mark Rylance- Bridge of Spies

3. Tom Hardy- The Revenant

4. Mark Ruffalo- Spotlight

5. Christian Bale- The Big Short

A hard one to predict, but I think Stallone will get it, having won the Golden Globe and Critic's Choice award. However, Rylance also won BAFTA (where Stallone wasn't nominated) and Tom Hardy might just win the voters over by starring in the two most nominated films (The Revenant and Mad Max). Less likely but Mark Ruffalo could get in due to Spotlight's acclaim. It's not going to Academy Award Winner Christian Bale.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Alicia Vikander- The Danish Girl

2. Kate Winslet- Steve Jobs

3. Rooney Mara- Carol

4. Jennifer Jason Leigh- The Hateful Eight

5. Rachel McAdams- Spotlight

It's between Vikander and Winslet, but I suspect its Vikander to win. Although Winslet won the Golden Globe and BAFTA, Vikander was nominated for leading in those categories so they weren't competing. Meanwhile, Vikander has won SAG and critic's choice and was also in the celebrated Ex Machina. Mara could potentially squeeze in if Vikander and Winslet cancel each other out.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Spotlight

2. Inside Out

3. Bridge of Spies

4. Ex Machina

5. Straight Outta Compton

Spotlight is the only one of the 5 nominations that's a potential Best Picture winner and has been sweeping most of the screenplay awards. A pretty safe win.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Big Short

2. The Martian

3. Room

4. Carol

5. Brooklyn

This is actually a pretty competitive category and in theory any of these nominees could win, but I think The Big Short has it. It's acclaimed, it's a Best Picture frontrunner and it's screenplay is the film's biggest strength.

Best Director

1. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu- The Revenant

2. Tom McCarthy- Spotlight

3. George Miller- Mad Max: Fury Road

4. Adam McKay- The Big Short

5. Lenny Abrahamson- Room

Having won the Director's Guild Award, AGI should have this, but having also won last year for Birdman might make Academy voters less susceptible to him. McCarthy or McKay would be more typical choices but Miller also got a surprise 10 nominations for his film so he could be a pleasant surprise. But I still think Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu is going to win his 2nd Oscar in a row.

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Best Picture

1. The Revenant

2. Spotlight

3. The Big Short

4. The Martian

5. Mad Max: Fury Road

6. Room

7. Bridge of Spies

8. Brooklyn

This is the closest race in a long time. The Screen Actors Guild Award, Producers Guild Award, and Directors Guild Award are all the biggest indicators and they went to different films. Spotlight won The Screen Actors Guild Award, The Big Short won The Producers Guild Award, and The Revenant won the Directors Guild Award. I'm going with The Revenant, but it could really go to any of these three.

Oscar Nominations Announced: My Reactions

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston- Trumbo

Matt Damon- The Martian

Leonardo DiCaprio- The Revenant

Michael Fassbender- Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne- The Danish Girl

No surprises here. In fact, I was 5/5 in my predictions. Johnny Depp not getting in for Black Mass was pretty disappointing. Other snubs include Michael B. Jordan in Creed, Will Smith in Concussion, and Steve Carell in The Big Short, but they were never major contenders in the first place. Even Depp's hype had greatly died down by January. I was just hoping to get a pleasant surprise.

Leonardo DiCaprio: The likely winner

Johnny Depp: The snub

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett- Carol

Brie Larson- Room

Jennifer Lawrence- Joy

Charlotte Rampling- 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan- Brooklyn

Well, this took an interesting turn. The nominations were more or less narrowed down to 6 contenders with Alicia Vikander being the one who didn't get nominated here, but she was nominated for Best Supporting Actress instead, so I guess everyone wins...except not really for reasons I'll explain below. Still, I felt Charlotte Rampling's nomination was the biggest uncertainty so that's nice to see.

Brie Larson in Room

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale- The Big Short

Tom Hardy- The Revenant

Mark Rylance- Bridge of Spies

Mark Ruffalo- Spotlight

Sylvester Stallone- Creed

Well, the biggest surprise was Tom Hardy which makes me really happy since he gave a phenomenal performance. However, considering how crowded this category was, there were tons of snubs including Benicio Del Toro (Sicario), Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation), Paul Dano (Love and Mercy), Michael Shannon (99 Homes), Jacob Tremblay (Room), Oscar Isaac (Ex Machina) and Michael Keaton (Spotlight). Only 3 of my 5 predictions were correct.

Tom Hardy's unrecognizable role in The Revenant

Paul Dano's performance as Brian Wilson in Love and Mercy, a massive (but unsurprising) snub.

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh- The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara- Carol

Rachel McAdams- Spotlight

Alicia Vikander- The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet- Steve Jobs

Alicia Vikander's snubbed performance in Ex Machina

Alicia Vikander's nominated performance in The Danish Girl

This is a weird one because technically all of my nominations were correct, but Alicia Vikander got nominated for the wrong movie. I predicted Vikander to get nominated for Ex Machina, which she absolutely would have deserved, but she sadly didn't make the cut in favor of her more baity performance in The Danish Girl. Academy rules dictate that an individual can't be nominated for two performances in the SAME category. This is especially irritating since Vikander is clearly lead in The Danish Girl. Well, I'm glad Vikander got nominated for something, but I still think she got in for the wrong movie. Other snubs include Helen Mirren in Trumbo, Jane Fonda in Youth, and Kristen Stewart in Clouds of Sils Maria.

Best Director

Lenny Abrahamson- Room

Alejandro González Iñárritu- The Revenant

Tom McCarthy- Spotlight

Adam McKay- The Big Short

George Miller- Mad Max Fury Road

Well, Lenny Abrahamson is by far the biggest surprise of the nominations. I can't think of a single person who thought he was getting in. I'll admit that Ridley Scott's snub for The Martian really hurts. It was such a great comeback and at 78 years old, I'm not sure how many more chances he'll have. Other snubs include Todd Haynes in Carol and Steven Spielberg in Bridge of Spies.

Best Picture

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

None of the nominations were necessarily surprising, but there were some disappointing snubs. Star Wars wasn't expected to get in anymore, but I'm still sad it didn't make the cut. Ex Machina and Sicario would have been refreshing nominees. Straight Outta Compton is another notable snub. But the most shocking snub is probably Carol.

Best Original Screenplay

Bridge of Spies

Ex Machina

Inside Out

Spotlight

Straight Outta Compton

The biggest shock was The Hateful Eight. I knew it wasn't going to be as big at the Oscars as Tarantino's previous films, but I still thought he'd be recognized for the film's wonderful screenplay. Sicario was also a disappointing snub, though perhaps not that surprising in hindsight. Inside Out and Straight Outta Compton taking their place, the latter more surprising than the former. I'm absolutely ecstatic that Ex Machina got in however.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short

Brooklyn

Carol

The Martian

Room

None of these nominations are surprising per se, but it is shocking that Aaron Sorkin didn't get in for Steve Jobs, especially after his Golden Globe win, making Steve Jobs one of just 8 golden globe winners for Best Screenplay that wasn't nominated for an Oscar. 

Alright, so where does that leave us? Well I am thrilled about some of these nominations like Ex Machina's screenplay nod, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Charlotte Rampling, and Tom Hardy. Mad Max's recognition was also incredibly inspired and something I doubt anyone would have anticipated 6 months ago.

That said, there are definitely a lot of disappointments. Johnny Depp from Black Mass hurts, as does Ridley Scott and Quentin Tarantino's directing and screenplay snubs. Supporting actor was filled with snubs including Idris Elba, Benicio Del Toro, and especially Paul Dano. But the snub that hurts the most is probably Alicia Vikander for Ex Machina, even though she got nominated for another performance, mainly since I was really convinced that she was getting in. A nomination for playing a non-human character in a science-fiction film would have been so inspired and deserving, but I guess I was expecting too much.

The Revenant received the most recognition with 12 nominations. 

Mad Max: Fury Road was in second with 10 nominations (all in technical categories besides Picture and Director). 

The Martian received 7 nominations, but still missed out on Best Director.

Bridge of Spies, Carol, and Spotlight all received 6 nominations. 

The Big Short and Star Wars: The Force Awakens received 5 nominations.

The Danish Girl and Room received 4 nominations.

Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, and Sicario received 3 nominations.

Ex Machina, Inside Out, and Steve Jobs received 2 nominations.