The Oscars are announced tomorrow and it's been a strong year for films. There will likely be some pleasant surprises and saddening snubs so let's get ready!
Best Actor
The Locks
1. Joaquin Phoenix- Joker
Formerly #2
Joker has been a controversial and divisive movie, but most seem to be in agreement that Joaquin Phoenix's performance is the best part. Like Driver, he's scoring nominations everywhere and is likely a lock for a nod at this point.
Update: Now the frontrunner following his Golden Globe win.
2. Taron Egerton- Rocketman
Formerly #4
Rocketman came out awhile ago but that hasn't stopped Egerton's performance from being recognized by the Golden Globes and SAG. He's not as safe of a bet but seems like a probable nomination.
3. Adam Driver- Marriage Story
Formerly #1
Adam Driver has become quite the rising star over the last few years and I'd argue that he gives his best performance to date in Marriage Story. He's already garnering nominations left and right and the film is also a potential Best Picture frontrunner.
4. Leonardo DiCaprio- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Formerly #3
This is Leo's first movie since he won an Oscar for The Revenant 4 years ago and he seems likely to score another nod this year with a performance that's received nods by the Golden Globes, Critic's Choice, and SAG.
The Contenders
The above 4 are almost guaranteed a nomination. So these remaining people are gonna be fighting for that 5th slot and it's very hard to predict who's gonna get it.
5. Adam Sandler- Uncut Gems
Formerly #6
Sandler is getting career-best praise for Uncut Gems, but this might be a case of a film being too underseen to get proper recognition. Still, he won Best Actor at the National Board of Review and over the last 10 years, only 2 NBR Best Actor winners weren't nominated at the Oscars, so that's gotta count for something.
Update: This prediction will probably be wrong and admittedly I am pulling for Sandler, but I'm using the NBR win in his favor.
6. Robert De Niro- The Irishman
Formerly #7
Honestly kinda surprised De Niro isn't more of a contender, though I guess he's more subdued and ambiguous than Pesci and De Niro. Still, he scored a Critic's Choice nomination and is in a Best Picture frontrunner so maybe he'll sneak his way into a nomination.
7. Antonio Banderas- Pain and Glory
Formerly #8
Banderas has been a known actor for awhile but has never scored an Oscar nomination. I'm not sure he'll get in for a Spanish-language film not seen by many, but he's been recognized at the Golden Globes and Critic's Choice.
8. Jonathan Pryce- The Two Popes
Formerly #10
Pryce has been a respected actor for awhile, kinda shocking to think he's never scored an Oscar nod before. Well, it doesn't get much baitier than playing the Pope so we'll see if the Academy takes the bait.
9. Christian Bale- Ford V. Ferrari
Formerly #5
Bale's in 5th and his slot will definitely be one for the taking. Still, Bale has received 4 Oscar nominations in the last 9 years so the Academy clearly likes him and he probably shouldn't be discounted.
Update: He still might get that 5th slot but it's seeming less and less likely in this crowded year.
10. Eddie Murphy- Dolemite is My Name
Formerly #9
Eddie Murphy gives quite a comeback performance in his first R-rated comedy in 20 years. He's quite the charismatic dude and based on his Golden Globe and Critic's Choice nods, could be a contender, though he'd likely be the film's sole nomination.
11. Robert Pattinson- The Lighthouse
Your day will come, Robert. And if it doesn't, that's on them.
12. Daniel Craig- Knives Out
Honestly just happy he got that Golden Globe nomination. Deserved it for the commitment to that accent.
13. Mark Ruffalo- Dark Waters
Not a film that's gotten much award recognition, but it's a good movie and I'm kinda shocked this "important issue" type of film is being ignored this awards season.
Best Actress
The Locks
1. Renee Zellweger- Judy
Formerly #3
Judy is Zellweger's comeback film, although some have argued it's a great performance in a mediocre film, that might be enough to get her in.
Update: Pending SAG, she's now the frontrunner.
2. Scarlett Johansson- Marriage Story
Formerly #1
I sometimes forget that Johansson wasn't nominated for Lost in Translation over 15 years ago, and hasn't received a single Oscar nomination to date. But she seems to be a lock for Marriage Story and I wouldn't be surprised if she managed to score a win because she seems to have much more hype than everyone else.
The Contenders
3. Saoirse Ronan- Little Women
Formerly #4
Ronan scored her 3rd Oscar nomination at just 23 years old. The Academy clearly likes her and everyone is liking Little Women. Her snub at SAG didn't help but I think she'll work her way in.
4. Awkwafina- The Farewell
Formerly #7
Awkwafina has a good narrative, being a comedic actress who was able to show her dramatic abilities. The Academy loves a good narrative and she's scored Critic's Choice and Golden Globe nominations (snubbed at SAG). But she's not a lock and we'll see if the Academy still remembers an A24 film that got released in the Summer.
Update: Still not a lock but the Golden Globe win helps.
5. Charlize Theron- Bombshell
Formerly #2
Although still actively working, Theron hasn't received an Oscar nomination for nearly 15 years but she's getting a lot of acclaim for her work in Bombshell that seems likely to score her another nomination.
Update: She's received the major precursors but the film's buzz seems to be dying. She's on shaky ground and the next 2 people could take that 5th slot.
6. Lupita N'yongo- Us
Lupita N'yongo was recognized at Critic's Choice and SAG but not the Golden Globes. She's also in a horror film, which posits a bit of an uphill battle when it comes to Oscar recognition.
Update: It would be an inspired nomination for sure and it'd be cool to see but I'm just not sure.
7. Cynthia Erivo- Harriet
Formerly #5
Erivo's sudden onslaught of nominations surprised me because the film seemed to have come and gone fairly quickly. If nominated, she'd likely be the sole nomination so I'd argue she's on shaky ground but getting in at Critic's Choice, SAG, and Golden Globes is impressive.
Update: I don't know, maybe she'll get in. But the film has so little momentum.
The Longshots
8. Ana De Armas- Knives Out
Ana De Armas had been in previous films but she's recognized as the breakout star of Knives Out, scoring a Golden Globe nomination.
9. Florence Pugh- Midsommar
It's gonna be a Hereditary situation all over again. Maybe someday people in Ari Aster films will get Oscar nominations.
10. Alfre Woodard- Clemency
Alfre Woodard's performance as a prison warden is garnering her lots of acclaim and opening right at the end of the year seems to have potential for an upset if enough people check out her film.
11. Elisabeth Moss- Her Smell
Director Alex Ross Perry is campaigning for her and Moss seems like the type of actress who's gonna get the right role for an Oscar nomination sooner or later, but it's probably not happening this year.
Best Supporting Actor
The Locks
1. Brad Pitt- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Putting Brad Pitt at #1 is more of an educated guess, but he's scoring the major precursors, is a very well-liked actor, and I think the Academy is ready to finally recognize him with an acting Oscar.
2. Joe Pesci- The Irishman
Pesci came out of his unofficial retirement to star in The Irishman and he hasn't been this good since Goodfellas. He's getting nominated left and right and even won at the National Board of Review.
3. Al Pacino- The Irishman
Al Pacino has been nominated 8 times, but it's been over 25 years since his last nomination. That seems likely to end this year. The only question is whether he and Pesci could cancel each other out but I could picture them both getting in.
4. Tom Hanks- A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Everyone loves Tom Hanks, including the Academy, but he hasn't actually been nominated for an Oscar in nearly 20 years. He didn't get in for Captain Phillips, Bridge of Spies, or The Post, but he seems like he might have a chance for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, as he's already scored all the major precursors.
Update: He's gotten all of the major precursors but he did for Captain Phillips as well and this film isn't even a Best Picture contender. He'll still probably get in but I can't quite call him a lock.
5. Song Kang Ho- Parasite
Formerly #8
First off, he's one of my favorite actors so although unlikely, I'm kinda pulling for him. Last year, we had a foreign language film (Roma) that was a Best Picture frontrunner and squeezed in two unexpected acting nods when the Oscars were announced. Maybe it could happen again this year.
Update: This is a bold prediction that'll probably be wrong, but perhaps history could repeat like it did with Roma.
6. Anthony Hopkins- The Two Popes
Formerly #5
Hopkins, like Hanks, is one of the most respected actors working today, but he hasn't actually scored an Oscar nomination for over 20 years. It might change this year with a performance that's been recognized by the Golden Globes and Critic's Choice.
Update: I'm not predicting him but it's definitely a possibility.
7. Willem Dafoe- The Lighthouse
Formerly #6
Probably too artsy and weird for the Academy but Willem Dafoe gives what might be the performance of his career in The Lighthouse and at least the Critic's Choice awards were willing to recognize that.
Update: It should happen because he's my win for Supporting Actor but it's doubtful. I'd love to be wrong though.
8. Jamie Foxx- Just Mercy
Formerly #7
Foxx's performance in Just Mercy is being praised by some and his best performance in over a decade and his SAG nomination solidifies that people are paying attention.
Best Supporting Actress
I'm still pulling for Shuzhen Zhao, but my lineup here remains essentially unchanged.
The Locks
1. Laura Dern- Marriage Story
Laura Dern seems pretty beloved in Hollywood and has a fun and showy supporting role in an acclaimed Best Picture winner. Is she a lock for a win? Not yet, but it certainly seems more than possible.
2. Margot Robbie- Bombshell
Margot Robbie received her first Oscar nomination 2 years ago and seems to be viewed as the highlight of Bombshell, garnering nominations everywhere.
3. Jennifer Lopez- Hustlers
Jennifer Lopez has never scored an Oscar nomination, which seemingly could finally change this year as she's scoring the major precursors.
4. Scarlett Johansson- Jojo Rabbit
Could Scarlett Johansson get a second nomination alongside Marriage Story? Yep, it's certainly possible and the Critic's Choice and SAG seem to agree, but this feels less locked than her Marriage Story performance.
5. Florence Pugh- Little Women
If Florence Pugh won't get recognized for Midsommar, this'll have to do.
6. Shuzhen Zhao- The Farewell
Formerly #7
Nominate Shuzhen Zhao, you cowards!
7. Nicole Kidman- Bombshell
Formerly #6
She's lacking the recognition of her co-stars but Kidman did get recognized at SAG. Could she squeeze in? Maybe.
8. Kathy Bates- Richard Jewell
Richard Jewell has underperformed at the box office which doesn't help but Kathy Bates has received a Golden Globe nod and a win at the National Board of Review. She could be a dark horse.
9, Annette Bening- The Report
Bening scored a Golden globe nod, which many found surprising. Probably won't get in but she is playing a real person in a "big issue" film.
Best Director
1. Bong Joon Ho- Parasite
2. Martin Scorsese- The Irishman
3. Sam Mendes- 1917
4. Quentin Tarantino- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Contenders
5. Greta Gerwig- Little Women
6. Noah Baumbach- Marriage Story
7. Todd Phillips- Joker
8. Taika Waititi- Jojo Rabbit
The Longshots
9. Pedro Almodóvar- Pain & Glory
10. The Safdie Brothers- Uncut Gems
11. Robert Eggers- The Lighthouse
12. Lulu Wang- The Farewell
13. James Mangold- Ford v. Ferrari
14. Marielle Heller- A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
15. Terrence Malick- A Hidden Life
:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/65394898/DOL_Unit_06284_rgb.0.jpg)
